Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 10
MLB 2026 betting record: 38-50-1, -13.29 units
Today's slate is light, as only five MLB games, and two evening contests, are scheduled before heading into one of the final weekends of the regular season.
But that still leaves plenty of betting options for Thursday, and I'm rolling with four predictions, including a pair from the final game of the night between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox Predictions and Best Bets
- Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+110 theScore Bet)
- Pirates Over 3.5 runs (-129 BetRivers)
Pittsburgh's lineup looks significantly better of late after returning star Oneil Cruz and top prospect Konnor Griffin to occupy two-fifths of the top of its batting order.
In 19 games since returning from a two-plus-month absence, Cruz is slashing a healthy .290/.388/.478 with an impressive 16 RBI. He hasn't gone deep in 12 games but he's a big threat to leave the yard and has hit lefties and righties equally well this season after struggles with southpaws for much of his career.
Lefty Hagen Smith is a tough opening act, but he's not expected to go deep, as right-hander Erick Fedde is projected for bulk innings. Fedde has given the White Sox quality innings, but his expected stats leave much to be desired. He doesn't miss many bats and walks his fair share of hitters, leading to plenty of traffic on the bases. Cruz should have opportunities to drive runners in as the cleanup or No. 5 hitter, and his power combined with a career-best average makes him an attractive play on this prop at a plus-money price.
Considering Fedde should be the primary pitcher and Chicago's excellent bullpen will be missing a strong relief option since Hagen is going early, I like the Pirates to eclipse their team total. Fedde has been a regression candidate all year and, despite leaning into his best pitch more (sweeper), he's deploying the same arsenal that led to a 5.49 ERA last year with similarly poor advanced stats.
Cruz and several other power bats will enjoy a platoon advantage vs. Fedde, and Pittsburgh has been one of MLB's top teams against right-handed pitching, ranking second in on-base percentage, third in average and fifth in wRC+ (108). Even with diminished production against lefties, the Pirates are fifth in runs per game (4.84). While we're just over a week into September, they have a top-10 offense and lead the majors in OBP this month.
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Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees Predictions and Best Bets
- Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+100 BetRivers)
It's safe to say that Garcia is enjoying his new stomping grounds.
The trade deadline acquisition is tearing the cover off the ball at Yankee Stadium, bashing .348 with a 1.038 OPS, powered by his five homers and as many doubles. He's made a living hitting right-handed pitching and that's been especially true this season. Garcia is hitting .297 and slugging .586 (fifth in MLB) vs. righties, clobbering 26 of his career-best 29 homers off them.
Not only will Garcia see a righty at home tonight, but it's the Rockies' homer-prone Ryan Feltner, who has a 5.91 ERA and an inadequate bullpen to follow him. Garcia doesn't walk much and strikes out well below league average, meaning we should expect balls put in play. And when he does do that, it's usually loud, as Garcia has an 81st percentile hard-hit rate, leading to an xBA and xSLG in the 90th percentiles.
That all looks extra great and a recipe for success against Rockies pitching, a group with the lowest K% in baseball.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Predictions and Best Bets
- Jacob deGrom Over 16.5 outs (-110 BetMGM)
Texas is handling deGrom carefully — he's eclipsed 95 pitches once since the end of June — but he's been efficient enough to top this line three times in his last four trips to the mound.
The veteran righty is having a late-season surge after stumbling through short outings, inconsistencies and injury coming out of the break. Though he has a dud mixed in, deGrom provided much more than length in his three recent outings that he completed at least six innings.
•Aug. 20 vs. WSH: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K
•Aug. 31 vs. ATH: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K
•Sept. 5 vs. DET: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K
His fastball velocity, chase, whiff and strikeout rates all remain upper tier. While his control has deserted him more than in years past, it's more sporadic than a recurring issue. He's not old deGrom, but he's still plenty good and is the Rangers' best starter. Fighting for a playoff spot, they need him in this high-stakes game.
deGrom's latest run is encouraging, and so is the fact that Texas got four innings out of yesterday's starter and has Kumar Rocker lined up for Friday. Rocker has struggled to work deep with any sort of regularity, which should keep one of the league's worst bullpens active. deGrom gets a great environment at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park and, if he's throwing well, there should be little incentive to yank him.
I love this spot for the two-time Cy Young winner.
MLB Picks Recap
- Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+110 theScore Bet)
- Pirates Over 3.5 runs (-129 BetRivers)
- Luis Garcia Over 1.5 total bases (+100 BetRivers)
- Jacob deGrom Over 16.5 outs (-110 BetMGM)
