Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 24
MLB 2026 betting record: 44-52-1, -9.35 units
Today's MLB schedule is loaded for the final Thursday of the regular season.
It's a rare 12-game slate, featuring several key matchups as the playoff picture is undecided in both leagues. I have four picks, including a pair of betting predictions from the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers clash.
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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions and Best Bets
- Dodgers -0.5, First Five Innings (-120 DraftKings)
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+100 BetMGM)
A strong pitching matchup is on tap between these NL West rivals tonight, as Nick Pivetta takes the hill opposite Tyler Glasnow.
Pivetta has thrown well in three starts since returning from a five-month absence, but he hasn't faced the type of competition that he'll see tonight. Pivetta got the Nationals, Giants and Marlins, three teams with below-average offenses in the second half. No team has performed worse than the Nationals this month, per wRC+, and only one team has been better than the Dodgers (the Padres).
I'll note that Glasnow has faced those same teams in his three September starts and struggled with run prevention, but he's coming off a season-high 10-strikeout performance. He's also in the 90th percentile or better in expected batting average, xERA and K percentage, and the Dodgers are 9-3 in his 12 starts.
The Dodgers have missed Shohei Ohtani and Andy Pages for nearly the entire month. Both just returned this series, giving the Dodgers their projected playoff lineup for the first time in a while. That lineup is as strong as any and is, unsurprisingly, one of the best four-seam-fastball-hitting groups in the majors, per FanGraphs. That's a pitch Pivetta throws more than 50 percent of the time.
Pivetta's other main offering is his curveball, and Freeman has above-average production against both four-seamers and curves, according to StatCast. He's also seen Pivetta plenty, with great success and little swing and miss (.390 average, 1.127 OPS, four strikeouts in 45 career plate appearances). The first baseman is likely to bat either third or fourth in the order and, despite a down September, I like this spot for the righty-mashing Freeman.
Los Angeles slumped through July and August, but the club has played at a .714 clip in September (15-6) with a +43 run differential. The back-to-back champs look as dangerous as ever ahead of the postseason.
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Houston Astros vs. Athletics Predictions and Best Bets
- Peter Lambert Over 16.5 outs (+102 FanDuel)
This isn't a great pitching environment at Sutter Health Park, but this Athletics lineup, which got a recent boost with the return of Shea Langeliers, is still missing several key pieces.
The Astros' only realistic path to the postseason is to win the dreadful AL West, which they currently lead via a tiebreaker over the Rangers. That makes tonight's matchup, the start of a four-game series against the lowly A's, a huge game for Houston.
Simply put, Houston needs length out of Lambert tonight. Unless he's getting obliterated, I'd expect him to have some rope after the Astros heavily worked several relievers over the last couple of days.
Closer Josh Hader is certainly down after throwing 44 pitches yesterday. He's one of six Astros relievers who have thrown more than 30 pitches over the last two days, and a couple of those arms have pitched in consecutive outings. This isn't an ideal situation for Houston's bullpen as the margin for error is so thin with four games remaining.
Lambert has worked into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts and topped this number in three of his last five. He'll be pitching at a homer-friendly park, but he has done well keeping the ball in the yard, and the Athletics have been a below-average offense vs. right-handers and in the second half.
Since the start of July, Lambert has allowed more than three runs in just one of his 14 outings. He's 8-6 vs. this line over that stretch and 15-12 on the season.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Predictions and Best Bets
- Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 total bases (+138 BetRivers)
Tyler Mahle has been sensational since joining the Braves, posting a 1.28 ERA over eight starts and going at least six innings in all but one. He's allowed two runs or fewer in each outing and has a strikeout-to-walk rate better than 5:1.
Equally as hot has been Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz. And at this price, I'm happy to look past Mahle's dominance to back a power-hitter whose .285 average is the best of his career.
De La Cruz's September has been electric. In 20 games, he's batting .384/.471/.781 with eight home runs and five doubles. He's topped 1.5 total bases in 14 of those games and in 20 of his last 30.
Only one player in MLB (Gabriel Moreno) has recorded two-plus bases more frequently than the star shortstop, according to Team Rankings.
MLB Picks Recap
- Dodgers -0.5, First Five Innings (-120 DraftKings)
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+100 BetMGM)
- Peter Lambert Over 16.5 outs (+102 FanDuel)
- Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 total bases (+138 BetRivers)
