Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 3
MLB 2026 betting record: 36-48-1, -13.05 units
The first Thursday of September features a nine-game MLB slate that's heavy on evening games.
I have four predictions for the day, including a run line pick on a large favorite and a player prop.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions and Best Bets
- Dodgers -1.5 Runs (-130 FanDuel)
This isn't the most exciting pick — a run-line play that isn't plus-money — but this is the right matchup for the Dodgers to get back on track and avoid a sweep at the hands of the mediocre Cardinals.
Los Angeles is deploying ace Tarik Skubal against Cardinals rookie Quinn Mathews after coughing up a lead and losing in extras last night following a blowout loss in the series opener.
Skubal hasn't been dominant with the Dodgers, but we know he's capable of that against any team and he hasn't pitched poorly either. The southpaw has a 3.00 ERA (2.30 FIP) across five starts and an elite 30.0 percent strikeout rate. He hasn't allowed a home run in three straight outings, working at least six innings in all of them.
The two-time Cy Young winner gives the Dodgers an edge in just about any start, and tonight's gap is large. Mathews has had a good minor league career that's been marred by control issues, something he has continued to struggle with over his first taste of the big leagues. Giving the Dodgers free bases is not a way to win games. They rank fourth in MLB in walk rate, helping power them to the fourth-most runs per game and second-best wRC+.
Backing the Dodgers to win straight up isn't playable at a -300 price, but this game has big blowout potential. The Cardinals are bottom-five in wRC+ and ISO in the second half, inspiring little confidence that they will touch up Skubal.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers Predictions and Best Bets
- Rays Moneyline (-123 theScore Bet)
How much you believe in Cal Quantrill probably goes a long way in determining where you think the value lies in this game.
Texas deployed Quantrill out of the bullpen to start the season after three rough years as a starter across multiple organizations. Since moving to the rotation, he has a 2.69 ERA across 13 appearances (11 starts) and has delivered a quality outing in three straight outings.
Quantrill has largely kept the ball in the yard, avoided free passes and is missing some bats to help him escape jams. There's enough to like, but Quantrill did post a 5.39 ERA across 365.2 innings over his previous three seasons coming into this year. Buyer beware.
I don't trust him against the Rays, a Top 5 offense that has continued to hit well in the second half and has done particularly well against righties.
Texas does have the second-best offense in MLB vs. left-handers and will see southpaw Shane McClanahan, but when factoring in the environment, this could be the lefty's softest landing since coming off the injured list in mid-August. McClanahan has been ordinary over those three outings, but he is coming off a 5.2-inning start where he got up to 80 pitches. The Rays have generally handled his workload carefully after years of injury setbacks, but there shouldn't be any restrictions on him at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.
Tampa Bay — 14-9 in McClanahan's 23 starts — also has a bullpen that has performed significantly better than Texas, and the AL East leaders haven't slowed down, sporting a .600 winning percentage in the second half (the Rangers are four games below .500).
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Predictions and Best Bets
- Jake Bennett Over 4.5 strikeouts (-135 BetMGM)
Bennett is consistently right around this number, reaching at least four strikeouts in 12 of 14 outings since the start of June. More recently, he's been clearing it, topping this line in four straight starts with a 25.8 K percent over that stretch.
He's taken advantage of teams with big swing miss that are susceptible to southpaws, and he gets another one tonight against the Orioles.
Baltimore is striking out at the fifth-highest clip in the second half, and only one team gets punched out more often vs. southpaws. Bennett rarely gives up free passes and has a 97th percentile chase rate, giving me confidence he'll rack up more than the four strikeouts he produced when he faced the Orioles in July.
Bennett's ability to work deep helps, too, as he's pitched into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts.
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros Predictions and Best Bets
- Astros Over 4.5 runs (+102 FanDuel)
Opposing teams have scored five-plus runs in 14 of Castillo's 25 appearances this season. He's been rocked in three straight outings and in four of five since joining the White Sox at the trade deadline.
He had a 10-strikeout game vs. the Cincinnati Reds on Aug. 12 but has amassed just five total strikeouts in his last three starts and 24 hits allowed. I expect the Astros to tee off him before forcing Chicago's bullpen to put out the damage.
Having pitched in the AL West for many seasons, Castillo has faced several Houston hitters, including MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez, who has obliterated him. Castillo has allowed multiple bombs in five of his last eight starts, and the lack of strikeouts should lead to many balls put in play and probably some that leave the yard.
MLB Picks Recap
- Dodgers -1.5 Runs (-130 FanDuel)
- Rays Moneyline (-123 theScore Bet)
- Jake Bennett Over 4.5 strikeouts (-135 BetMGM)
- Astros Over 4.5 runs (+102 FanDuel)
