MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Friday, July 31
Prior article 1-2 -1.25 units
Season 90-91-1 -4.23 units
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Key MLB Betting Trends, Insights, and Matchups Analysis
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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves Best Bets and Predictions
The Washington Nationals present one of Friday's best underdog opportunities, and the Nationals moneyline is the strongest betting angle against the Atlanta Braves. Washington sends Foster Griffin to the mound against Bryce Elder, a matchup that features two capable starters. While Elder has pitched well this season, Griffin has been one of the National League's most consistent arms, giving Washington the edge.
Griffin has quietly emerged as a frontline starter, entering Friday with a 12-2 record, 2.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He has completed at least five innings in 12 of his 13 starts while allowing three earned runs or fewer in 11 outings. That level of consistency has made him one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball, and he has already delivered quality performances against contenders including Atlanta, San Diego, Milwaukee and Los Angeles.
Atlanta counters with Elder, who has put together a respectable season of his own at 6-6 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 98 strikeouts. Elder has done a solid job keeping the Braves in games, but he hasn't matched Griffin's consistency over the course of the season. Griffin has been better at limiting baserunners, avoiding big innings and consistently pitching deep enough to give Washington a chance to win.
The matchup also favors Washington from a value perspective. Atlanta's reputation continues to command respect in the betting market, but the Braves haven't consistently played to that level this season. When the better starting pitcher is available on the underdog, there's often value worth taking.
This projects as a competitive game that should be decided by the starting pitching matchup. Both teams have enough offense to capitalize on mistakes, but Griffin has made fewer of them all season and gives Washington a higher floor entering Friday's opener.
Griffin has been one of the National League's biggest breakout pitchers, combining elite consistency with the ability to neutralize quality lineups. Elder is a solid starter, but Washington owns the edge on the mound, making the Nationals moneyline the best value on Friday's board.
Best Bet: Nationals ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +106)
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Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles Best Bets and Predictions
The Baltimore Orioles have one of Friday's stronger betting profiles, and the Orioles moneyline (-114) offers value against a Philadelphia team that continues to trend in the wrong direction. Baltimore hands the ball to Brandon Young (8-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 80 strikeouts), while the Phillies counter with Brian Keller, another back-of-the-rotation option for a club that has struggled to find stability behind its frontline starters.
Young has quietly emerged as one of Baltimore's most dependable pitchers. The right-hander consistently throws strikes, limits big innings and has given the Orioles a chance to win nearly every time he has taken the mound. His ability to work efficiently should be a major advantage against a Phillies offense that has gone cold over the past month.
Philadelphia's lineup simply hasn't resembled the group many expected entering the season. Over the last 30 days, the Phillies rank among the bottom five offenses in Major League Baseball, and that slump has translated directly into losses. They enter Friday having dropped eight of their last 10 games, including a surprising three-game sweep at the hands of the Marlins, who entered the series as one of baseball's coldest teams. During that 10-game stretch, Philadelphia owns a 4.96 team ERA and has been outscored by seven runs, illustrating struggles on both sides of the ball.
The Phillies' rotation depth has also become a concern. While the front of the rotation remains capable of matching up with anyone, the back end has been a revolving door, forcing Philadelphia to rely on inexperienced starters such as Keller. That's a difficult assignment against an Orioles lineup that has been more competitive than its recent record suggests.
Baltimore is just 5-5 over its last 10 games, but its 3.97 team ERA during that span is a full run lower than Philadelphia's. The Orioles have also received far more consistency from their starting pitching, and Young gives them another opportunity to control the game from the opening inning.
At a price of -114, Baltimore doesn't need to be dominant to provide betting value. With the better starting pitcher, home-field advantage and a favorable matchup against one of baseball's coldest offenses, the Orioles are the side to back Friday night.
Best Bet: Orioles ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -114)
St Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bets and Predictions
The best value on Friday's slate comes in Toronto, where the Blue Jays and Cardinals are set up for a low-scoring battle. With Dylan Cease facing Kyle Leahy, the Under 7.5 runs (-105) is the strongest betting angle.
Cease has pitched like one of the American League's top starters throughout the season. The veteran right-hander enters Friday with a 2.71 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, while consistently giving Toronto quality innings. He has completed at least five innings in every start this year and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 13 outings. His strikeout ability remains elite, recording 99 strikeouts in 72.1 innings, giving him the ability to escape jams without relying on his defense.
Just as importantly, Cease has been remarkably steady. Over his last six starts, he has surrendered only nine earned runs across 37.2 innings, continuing to establish himself as Toronto's unquestioned ace. Against a Cardinals lineup that has been inconsistent away from home, he has an excellent opportunity to control the game from the opening pitch.
While Cease headlines the matchup, Kyle Leahy has quietly developed into one of the Cardinals' most dependable starters. Leahy has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts this season and has pitched at least five innings in 10 of his last 11 outings. He doesn't overpower hitters, but he fills the strike zone, limits walks and consistently keeps St. Louis in games.
That combination makes this total particularly attractive. Both starters have demonstrated the ability to work deep into games while avoiding big innings, limiting exposure to the middle of the bullpen. With two pitchers in strong form, scoring opportunities should be limited throughout the night.
At 7.5 runs, the market is already expecting a pitchers' duel, but there's still value on the under. Cease has been dominant for much of the season, Leahy continues to exceed expectations, and neither offense enters this matchup with a significant edge over the opposing starter.
Everything points toward a tightly contested, low-scoring game. With Cease pitching at an ace level and Leahy consistently delivering quality starts, a final score in the 4-2 or 3-2 range is the most likely outcome, making the under the best play on Friday's card.
Best Bet: Cardinals/ Blue Jays UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -105)
Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Nationals ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +106)
- Orioles ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -114)
- Cardinals/ Blue Jays UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -105)
