Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, August 13
MLB 2026 betting record: 30-42-1, -13.5 units
We're treated to a nine-game slate this Thursday as the playoff races across baseball start heating up.
I'm serving up four predictions for today's MLB betting action, including a pair of player props and an underdog pick on a rare underdog.
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Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Predictions and Best Bets
Walbert Urena over 15.5 outs (+105 BetMGM)
Jacob deGrom under 17.5 outs (-110 DraftKings)
The Angels have taken two of three in a low-scoring batch of games vs. the Rangers but they've been rifling through relievers over the last week, creating value on Walbert Urena's total outs line.
It doesn't hurt that Urena gets the light-hitting Rangers, who have scored eight runs across the first three games of this series and have a 94 wRC+ in the second half with a top-10 strikeout rate. The matchup for Urena would be much better at hitter-friendly Globe Life Field, but the right-hander has thrown well at home, stringing together a 2.49 ERA, .183 opponents' batting average and 25.0 K% in 11 starts.
All told, the 22-year-old rookie has an impressive 2.83 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, a minuscule home run rate, one of the hardest fastballs in the game and the best changeup, per Baseball Savant's run value metric.
Urena's control can hurt him and shorten his outings, which is why we can get 15.5 outs at plus money. But he has the stuff to completely run through a lineup, as he's done repeatedly this season. The flamethrower has allowed one run or fewer in 12 of his starts, including both times he faced Texas, which drew five walks off him last time but didn't take advantage and is near the bottom of the leaderboard in BB%.
With the way Texas has been hitting, I think Urena should bounce back from one of his worst outings of the season and put together another strong performance. Despite great stuff, he's only topped six strikeouts four times, but he has recorded at least one out in the sixth inning in 10 of his 19 outings, including four of his last six.
Sticking with this game, I'm fading the pitcher with bigger name value in this matchup. This is a huge line for deGrom, who has cleared this number at a 50% clip this season but fallen short in five straight outings.
The oft-injured deGrom rarely sniffs 100 pitches as the Rangers balance his workload, and he faces an Angels team with one of the highest K rates in the game. That should drive up his pitch count and make it tough to be economical no matter how well he throws the ball. If his bloated second-half walk rate continues, it won't do him any favors either.
This is a great spot for deGrom, who should throw well, but completing six innings is a tall order given what we've been seeing from him. For what it's worth, he's fallen short of six innings in both of his starts against L.A. this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions and Best Bets
Brewers to win (+133 BetRivers)
Roki Sasaki is a changed man, but I'm not sure there will be another time this season where you'll be able to get the best team in the National League at this price.
According to Team Rankings, the Brewers have been the betting favourite in 25 consecutive games. Tonight, they're a +133 underdog at BetRivers. The last time they were that big of an underdog was May 18 vs. the Cubs.
Now, they're facing the powerhouse Dodgers, who are a considerably bigger favourite to win the World Series despite just trailing the Brewers in the standings. And with the way Sasaki has been throwing since switching to a bigger glove to avoid tipping pitches (2.40 ERA over his last five starts), you could argue Los Angeles has a pretty big pitching advantage. Plus, the Dodgers are at home and have the best run differential in the majors. It makes sense that they're favoured to win on Thursday night.
But if you're looking for value on a team that has the most wins in MLB, tonight is the night.
Right behind the Dodgers in run differential is the Brewers, who have the lowest ERA in the NL and best bullpen FIP, while ranking No. 3 in on-base percentage and fifth in runs per game. This is a well-rounded team that features lineup depth and good baserunning with shutdown relievers capable of silencing bats in a close game.
Milwaukee will need to see something better from rookie Shane Drohan, who has been hit around much more of late and is coming off the worst start of his young career. But Drohan has comfortably been an above-average arm and keeps the ball in the yard. The southpaw gets a Dodgers team that hits righties better than lefties and hasn't been great offensively in the second half. On top of that, there's uncertainty around Freddie Freeman's availability after the star first baseman took a nasty fall in the dugout trying to catch a foul ball in last night's game.
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals Predictions and Best Bets
Cubs to win (-142 FanDuel)
A good pitching matchup between Kevin Gausman and Cade Cavalli concludes this three-game set at Nationals Park.
While this game features the No. 1 and 2 offenses in MLB, per wRC+, Cavalli has allowed more than three runs in just four of 25 starts and has gone 11 consecutive outings surrendering three or fewer. Gausman, meanwhile, shined in his Cubs debut, spinning seven innings of two-run ball after ending his Toronto Blue Jays tenure with a strong showing against the St. Louis Cardinals.
But back to the offenses. While the Nats deserve plenty of respect for the season they're having at the plate, they're missing their best offensive player in James Wood, who leads the majors in runs by a large margin and is one of only three players with at least 30 homers and a 150 wRC+.
The Cubs are leading the majors in wRC+ and runs scored in the second half, batting a collective .275, fuelled by Pete Crow-Armstrong's push for MVP honors. This Cubs team is dangerous, recording a 17-8 record since the break to climb within three games of first in the NL Central.
MLB Picks Recap
- Walbert Urena over 15.5 outs (+105 BetMGM)
- Jacob deGrom under 17.5 outs (-110 DraftKings)
- Brewers moneyline (+133 BetRivers)
- Cubs moneyline (-142 FanDuel)
