Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, August 20
MLB 2026 betting record: 33-43-1, -11.21 units
Most of Thursday's MLB action is taking place this afternoon, but I've targeted the three night games for today's predictions.
With a pair of plays from the Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros series finale, I have four MLB betting recommendations for the nine-game slate.
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros Predictions and Best Bets
Peter Lambert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106 FanDuel)
Astros -0.5, First Five Innings (-120 DraftKings)
This is a juicy matchup for the Astros right-hander Lambert, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts to enter Thursday night's outing with a strong 3.11 ERA. Lambert has had few duds this season, and he already silenced the reeling Angels twice.
With an MLB-low 68 wRC+ in the second half with next to no pop, the Angels are one of the most salivating matchups for a starting pitcher. The club has just 16 homers in 30 post-All-Star contests — also last in MLB — and L.A. is the only team with a sub-.100 ISO over that stretch.
Why does all that matter for a play on a strikeout prop? Because this is conceivably a game where Lambert can work deep, providing him with more opportunities to accumulate punchouts against a team that leads MLB in swinging strike rate.
The Angels are one of the easiest teams in the majors to retire on strikes. They have a top-three K rate this season, which hasn't budged when isolating to the second half, and only one team in baseball has fanned more against right-handed pitching.
Lambert topped this line in both starts vs. L.A., punching out six Angels in June and another six when he faced them in July. He's 6-2 against this number since the start of July, and has cleared it in 12 of his 21 outings.
Getting this line at close to even money provides excellent value.
On the other side of this pitching matchup is Grayson Rodriguez, the once-promising arm who has been injured and dreadful in his first season with the Angels. Outside of good fastball velocity and a changeup that generates whiffs, it's hard to find many positives in Rodriguez's 13-start 2026 season.
He's in the first percentile for hard-hit rate, the second percentile for expected ERA (6.38 compared to an actual mark of 7.17), and he has a fourth percentile xBA. Rodriguez not only gets hit hard and taken deep, but his control issues have led to far too many walks.
Like most teams that have seen him, Houston should be able to plate runs against Rodriguez. And with Lambert going for Houston, this matchup represents a major starting pitching mismatch. With a moneyline price approaching -200 at some sportsbooks, taking the Astros to lead after five innings feels like the much better option.
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Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers Predictions and Best Bets
Jacob deGrom Under 15.5 Outs (-125 BetMGM)
This is the second straight week I'm taking the under on deGrom's total outs line. Last week, the Under on a 17.5 line seemed like a no-brainer and it cashed easily after deGrom left the start early with right triceps fatigue.
That marked the sixth consecutive outing that deGrom has failed to complete more than five frames. Before the triceps scare, deGrom was dealing with a glute strain in July, adding to his extensive injury history. The Rangers simply haven't been pushing him, with his pitch count rarely exceeding much more than 90 pitches.
But, the strikeout numbers are still there for deGrom, who has a 90th percentile K rate that can play in our favor if his swing-and-miss stuff is on display tonight. Strikeouts will drive up his pitch count. And, so will walks, which we've seen much more of from deGrom in the second half. Texas needs deGrom for its playoff push, but having him available in September is probably more important than pushing him in any one start before that.
Throwing at his pitcher-friendly home park helps, but that's partially countered against a strong-hitting Nationals team. No James Wood creates a major hole, though the Nats draw free passes at an above-average rate while ranking first in second-half ISO and first in runs per game this season.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Predictions and Best Bets
Yankees/Orioles Under 7.5 runs (-104 FanDuel)
With the exception of leaving inherited runners for his relievers, Yankees starter Gerrit Cole has no impact on what his bullpen does. But, he does influence a large chunk of the game, having at least worked into the sixth inning in 12 of his 15 starts. In nine of those outings, the Under has cashed on this game total. The former Cy Young winner hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since his last outing in June.
The conditions for Thursday night's series finale are dicey, too. A delay is possible with rain in the forecast around first pitch, and wind is expected to be blowing in at Camden Yards.
That shouldn't help a Yankees club that has been lifeless of late without Aaron Judge. New York is ahead of only the Angels in second-half wRC+ while ranking last in average and on-base percentage. The Under on this total has cashed in 15 of the Yankees' last 20 games.
New York won't be seeing a pushover tonight, either, as Baltimore deploys capable right-hander Kyle Bradish. While Bradish isn't delivering the season the Orioles probably wanted or expected, he's still a tough assignment who can miss bats when he's on. He's allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 outings, and he does an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard. Only two of his last seven starts have seen the game total eclipse 7.5 runs.
While the Orioles have been hitting the ball much better than New York, they'll have to contend with a Yankees bullpen that has a top-five ERA in the second half thanks to holding opponents to the second-lowest batting average. With a top-10 strikeout percentage, the group has stranded runners at a top-10 clip over that stretch.
No team in the AL has cashed Unders more often than the Yankees, whose 57.4 percent Unders mark is third in MLB.
MLB Picks Recap
- Peter Lambert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106 FanDuel)
- Astros -0.5, First 5 Innings (-120 DraftKings)
- Jacob deGrom Under 15.5 Outs (-125 BetMGM)
- Yankees/Orioles Under 7.5 runs (-104 FanDuel)
