Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, August 6
MLB 2026 betting record: 27-41-1, -15.48 units
We're treated to another double-digit slate on Thursday, making the lightest baseball day of the week an intriguing one.
Check out my MLB predictions below, which feature two player props and an underdog moneyline pick.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners Predictions and Best Bets
Tigers Moneyline (+116 DraftKings)
The best second-half offense in baseball belongs to the Tigers, who are slugging an MLB-best .471 and pacing the sport with a 126 wRC+. They've gone 11-7 since the break and remain in the wild-card hunt for now. That may very well change after trading Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, but their lineup remains a threat.
They'll need the bats to stay hot today against right-hander Bryce Miller and a strong Mariners bullpen. Miller has been exceptional this season, but natural regression has hit him, as he's coming off his worst month, sending his ERA from 1.71 to 2.80. The Mariners have lost each of his last four starts. Advanced metrics still love Miller, but he's proven to be hittable after a dominant two-month stretch to begin his season in mid-May.
Miller's counterpart, Framber Valdez, isn't enjoying the same type of season, though he'll have an easier lineup to navigate that has been well below average against left-handed pitching. Seattle is 29th in average vs. southpaws, 28th in on-base percentage and bottom 10 with a 90 wRC+.
Valdez already handled them once this season, spinning five innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts in June. He's been inconsistent, but his elite groundball rate should play against a team that pounds it into the ground at the sixth-highest mark in MLB.
There are a few strong underdogs on the board today, and Detroit is certainly one of them.
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Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Predictions and Best Bets
Over 8.5 runs (-119 BetRivers)
I expect plenty of offense from the Phillies tonight, but the prices on most of their player props aren't great, and their team total is a robust 5.5 that can't even be had at plus money.
In the biggest lopsided pitching matchup of the day, the Nationals are starting Miles Mikolas against Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez. Taking the Phillies on the moneyline isn't playable (the price is up to -350) and even a run line bet is in the -160 range.
But since I do believe Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Co. will tee off on Mikolas, I think this game total is light at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Sure, Sanchez could dominate and limit the Nationals' production, but Washington leads MLB in runs per game and is fifth in wRC+ in the second half. It wouldn't be surprising if the Nats contribute to this number, and they probably won't need to do much for this bet to cash.
Mikolas is in the first percentile of strikeout and whiff rate and has a 5.67 ERA, inflated by the second-highest home run rate in baseball (minimum 100 innings pitched). The righty has made 23 appearances (10 starts) and 17 of those games have cleared 8.5 runs.
Washington's bullpen, meanwhile, has a 4.76 ERA, the fourth-highest HR/9 rate among relief groups and the third-lowest K%. Philadelphia should bash its way to a convincing victory.
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions and Best Bets
Luis Castillo Under 15.5 Total Outs (-102 FanDuel)
This is a tough environment for Castillo's White Sox debut. The Red Sox are 25-4 since the start of July, ranking top five in runs scored, ISO and wRC+ over their blistering stretch.
Castillo has hit this mark three times in his last five starts, but his inability to miss bats (career-low K% and whiff rate) against this potent lineup at hitter-friendly Fenway Park is worrisome. The right-hander is giving up more fly balls than ever before, leading to a career-high home run rate. All signs point to the Red Sox being able to get to him on a perfect night for baseball in Boston, with temperatures expected to be just shy of 90 degrees Fareinheit with rain not in the forecast.
On top of that, Chicago is fighting for a playoff spot and its bullpen is in pretty good shape despite getting trounced 14-2 by Boston two nights ago. The White Sox were off Monday and only used two pitchers in that lopsided loss (their starter and a long man) before sending out three relievers in last night's 4-0 defeat.
Castillo still has a good fastball, gets hitters to chase and pounds the zone, so he could benefit from a change of scenery. But I don't expect that to shine through tonight.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions and Best Bets
Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115 DraftKings)
Perdomo, locked into a No. 2 or 3 spot in the batting order, is 8-2 vs. this prop over his last 10 games. I love his chances of hitting this again in a pivotal divisional matchup against the Padres, who are deploying struggling righty Walker Buehler.
Buehler has turned into a punching bag who doesn't really do anything well. His ability to provide innings, something he hasn't been able to do in years, is the best thing he's giving San Diego this season. The former all-star was obliterated last month by the Diamondbacks, who lead MLB in runs scored in the second half.
This lineup should be able to get runners on, and Perdomo figures to be involved in scoring opportunities, as he's done his part of late and will be surrounded by Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll. The switch-hitting Perdomo is batting .267/.388/.426 over the last month. He's walking at a career-high rate and is fifth in MLB in contact rate thanks to his lack of punchouts. That combination should work to his advantage against Buehler, who has substandard control and doesn't generate many strikeouts.
Perdomo took Buehler deep the last time he saw him and has provided nearly all of his home run power vs. righties over the last two seasons. He's getting on base at a .368 clip vs. RHPs in 2026.
MLB Picks Recap
- Tigers Moneyline (+116 DraftKings)
- Nationals/Phillies Over 8.5 runs (-119 BetRivers)
- Luis Castillo Under 15.5 Total Outs (-102 FanDuel)
- Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115 DraftKings)
