Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, July 23
MLB 2026 betting record: 23-38-1, -16.12 units
Thursday's MLB schedule is light, featuring just five games and none that start after 6:40 p.m. ET.
There's still plenty to find on the betting slate, though, and I'm recommending two plays, including a pair of predictions on two teams I expect to win.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Predictions and Best Bets
Tigers -1.5 (+102 BetRivers)
The Royals are coming off a three-game sweep of the lowly San Francisco Giants, but that doesn't do much for me. After a 2-2 March, the Royals have posted a losing record in every month this season, leading to a fifth-place showing in the weak American League Central.
They've been without top-of-the-order bat Maikel Garcia for a month and now star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has joined him on the sidelines. This is an offense that already lacked punch at the best of times, so losing Witt and facing a starter whose Baseball Savant page bleeds red is a recipe for failure.
Kansas City will see Troy Melton, who has a 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP across nine starts. He has allowed one run or fewer in seven of his nine outings, and the Tigers are 7-2 when he takes the mound. This is a juicy matchup for Melton, who has provided the Tigers with length, which sets them up favorably to turn to their top-tier bullpen arms once his day is done.
Detroit's offense has been a disappointment, but it's a much more talented group than Kansas City's and possesses more pop. As for the bullpens, the Tigers have a top-10 group, per ERA, while the Royals rank 29th. Over the last 30 days, Kansas City's bullpen has an unsightly 7.04 ERA, allowing opposing batters to hit just shy of .300 off them.
The Tigers are heavy favorites for a reason (-220 range on the moneyline), and I think this is the best way to back them and offers the most value.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Predictions and Best Bets
Diamondbacks to win (+110 Caesars Sportsbook)
St. Louis starter Michael McGreevy continues delivering strong starts for the Cardinals and he's been exceptional at home, which is where he'll pitch today's makeup game. McGreevy has a 1.89 ERA in nine starts at Busch Stadium.
But he doesn't miss bats and the discrepancy between his pristine ERA and expected ERA shouldn't be ignored. McGreevy's xERA is 5.35, slotting him in the 12th percentile despite being one of 15 qualified pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA. The difference between his ERA and FIP is the fifth-worst mark among that qualified group.
Perhaps this isn't the start he gets roughed up but it's hard to buy into his second-half stock. As a result, I'm happy to back a hot Diamondbacks team at plus money. Thanks to an 8-2 run over their last 10 games, the Diamondbacks are holding down the last wild-card spot in the National League.
Over the last 30 days, Arizona is comfortably ahead of the Cardinals in wRC+ (St. Louis is 29th, topping only the Toronto Blue Jays). Not surprisingly, the Cardinals are having their worst month (8-11) of the season, and between McGreevy and their bullpen, they don't have many arms with big strikeout upside.
The Diamondbacks strike out at the second-lowest rate in MLB, providing them a great chance to consistently put the ball in play today and create scoring opportunities. While I wouldn't blame you for not trusting Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt, the once top prospect has come on strong since returning from Triple-A at the end of June.
While the punchouts haven't been there, Pfaadt has a 2.14 ERA over four starts, allowing one walk and one home run. The Diamondbacks have won all four of those games, including one against the Cardinals and another vs. the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers.
MLB Picks Recap
- Tigers -1.5 (+102 BetRivers)
- Diamondbacks to win (+110 Caesars Sportsbook)
