Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, July 30
MLB 2026 betting record: 25-39-1, -15.1 units
Thursday's MLB action features a double-digit slate of games, including several taking place this evening.
I have four MLB predictions for the night, including a pair of underdogs and a player prop on a red-hot starting pitcher.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions and Best Bets
Mariners to win (+134 DraftKings)
The last game of the night offers solid underdog value on the Mariners, who have a chance to hand the Dodgers their first series loss of the second half.
Bryan Woo has been one of the most disappointing starters this season after entering the year with major Cy Young hype. But the Dodgers are sending out their own volatile arm in Roki Sasaki, who seems to keep blowing up after taking steps forward.
The Dodgers apparently believe they've addressed pitch-tipping issues with Sasaki, who has turned in three strong starts in a row after switching to a larger glove. But that's not a big enough sample to determine whether something real has occurred or if we're dealing with noise.
Sasaki has turned in good stretches before only to run into blowups before any sustained progress. And he's been punished by the long ball at home, which is where he'll be tonight.
Woo has been clobbered repeatedly of late, making this a tough spot to get back on track against MLB's top offense. But he's still been doing some things well — he misses enough bats with an elite chase rate, doesn't serve up homers and doesn't issue free passes (93rd percentile in BB%). In other words, he's been good at managing the things he has most control over, leading to a 3.52 xERA and 3.19 FIP that look considerably better than his actual 4.37 ERA.
Seattle's offense is outclassed, but the combination of Woo and the Mariners' excellent bullpen makes the defending AL West champs a worthwhile play in a matchup featuring the unpredictable Sasaki.
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San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Predictions and Best Bets
Under 8.5 runs (-115 BetRivers)
Robbie Ray has a chance to further boost his stock in his final start before MLB's trade deadline. The southpaw hasn't missed bats like he used to, but he's been pitching well for a crummy Giants team, turning in a 1.67 ERA since the start of June.
Over that stretch, the effectively wild left-hander has allowed just two homers and will toe the rubber at pitcher-friendly Petco Park tonight. The Padres' bats have awoken this month (119 wRC+, 3rd in MLB), but they have a 90 wRC+ at home on the season. And they haven't hit left-handed pitching well, sporting an 86 wRC+ that's better than just three teams to go along with an MLB-low 19 homers.
Ray's counterpart, JP Sears, has been sharp in July (2.04 ERA in four starts) and has a terrific bullpen to pick him up against a mediocre offensive team. San Diego's relief group ranks sixth in the majors in ERA, fifth in strand rate and first in WAR.
Both teams are in the bottom 10 in MLB in runs scored per game.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Predictions and Best Bets
Marlins to win (+110 FanDuel)
Eury Perez 6+ strikeouts (-133 DraftKings)
Miami's rollercoaster season has taken another sharp turn as the team is fresh off a three-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies following a franchise-long 12-game losing streak. As a result, the Marlins remain in the wild-card hunt and look like a viable underdog play despite going up against New York's top arm, Nolan McLean.
New York is coming off a doubleheader, which forced the team to deploy six relievers yesterday, and is without its best bat, Juan Soto. While the Mets' offense has been competent in the second half, the team is striking out at an MLB-high clip and will face a dynamic arm who can pile up Ks.
Perez, the Miami right-hander, has a 1.75 ERA in six starts since coming off the injured list just over a month ago. The flamethrower has recorded at least eight strikeouts in three of those starts, including an outing in which he was lifted after seven no-hit innings. He has already silenced the Mets once this season (6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 5 Ks) and is enjoying his hottest stretch of the year.
The 23-year-old has recorded at least six strikeouts in 12 of 18 starts. He's a good bet to stay locked in tonight and take advantage of the Mets' strikeout-heavy ways with his overpowering fastball and ability to miss bats.
The Marlins have been the better team with a better offense, and they aren't missing their best bat like New York. On top of that, Perez has been nearly just as good as McLean this season.
MLB Picks Recap
- Mariners to win (+134 DraftKings)
- Giants/Padres under 8.5 runs (-115 BetRivers)
- Marlins to win (+110 FanDuel)
- Eury Perez 6+ strikeouts (-133 DraftKings)
