Top MLB Prop Bets for August 28: Expert Picks & Insights
Friday's busy slate includes the first game of an important series between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Another highlight matchup is the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the San Diego Padres. Let's dig into the player props for the night and highlight three of the top options to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 78-48-1 (+17.99 units)
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Best MLB Prop Bets August 28
Minnesota Twins 
vs. Chicago White Sox 
Betting Picks
- Luis Castillo Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
- Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+120) at FanDuel for 1 Unit
A trade from the Seattle Mariners to the Chicago White Sox hasn't helped Castillo get his season back on track. In his last start, he didn't make it out of the third inning against the New York Mets, allowing four runs along the way. Over four starts with his new team, he has a 5.89 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. His ERA is up to 5.19 for the season, and his 4.92 xERA confirms that he is not pitching well. Not only does he have a bloated 1.42 WHIP, but he has allowed 1.6 HR/9.
Facing the Twins isn't likely to help Castillo turn things around. They have scored the ninth-most runs in baseball and rank 11th in wOBA. They are a good contact-hitting team, posting the seventh-lowest strikeout rate. Making opponents swing and miss has already been a problem for Castillo, given his 20.0 percent strikeout rate. When he faced the Twins in Minnesota as a member of the Mariners, he gave up seven runs over five innings. The Twins have the potential to hang runs on him early and often in this rematch.
Attacking this matchup further brings us to Culpepper, who had a .207 ISO and .376 wOBA at Triple-A this year. He has remained productive since being called up to the majors, posting a .193 ISO and a .392 wOBA over 16 games. In six of his last eight games, he has produced at least two combined hits, runs and RBI. Given the plus odds that come with him reaching that threshold again, this is an appealing option.
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Athletics 
vs. Baltimore Orioles 
Betting Picks
- Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
Butler has been one of the Athletics' most productive hitters down the stretch, hitting 21 for 58 (.362) with a .448 OBP over his last 16 games. During that span, he produced five home runs, 11 RBI and 10 runs scored. It's worth noting that nine of those games were played at home. He has a .355 wOBA and a .235 ISO there, compared to a .265 wOBA and a .051 ISO on the road.
Starting this matchup for the Orioles is Brandon Young, who hasn't pitched as well as his 3.50 ERA would lead people to believe. His xERA is 4.38, while his WHIP is 1.36. He's not overpowering many hitters, resulting in an 18.7 percent strikeout rate. In what could be a high-scoring game because the Athletics have the highest home OPS in baseball, Butler is in a favorable position to emerge with at least two combined hits, runs and RBI.
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MLB Prop Picks Recap
- Luis Castillo Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
- Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+120) at FanDuel for 1 Unit
- Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
