Top MLB Prop Bets for September 4: Expert Picks & Insights
Friday's packed slate includes a doubleheader between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers. There are a ton of player props to ponder, and we could see several hitters exploit favorable matchups. Let's narrow down the field by highlighting three of the top options to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 82-50-1 (+19.59 units)
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Best MLB Prop Bets September 4
Pittsburgh Pirates 
vs. Los Angeles Angels 
Betting Picks
- Brandon Lowe 1+ walks (+140) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
The Angels travel to Pittsburgh and will start Ryan Johnson in the first game of this series. He has struggled, posting a 5.47 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. While he has only allowed 67 hits across 72.1 innings, his bloated 11.4 percent walk rate is the issue. Over his last nine appearances, he walked 26 batters across 44 innings.
A batter to draw a walk prop often comes with plus odds, so this is a matchup to attack. Let's do so with Lowe, who has drawn at least one free pass in five of his last 10 games. He has a 9.3 percent walk rate for the season, which is right in line with his career mark of 9.4 percent. Johnson could pitch carefully to the powerful lefty, considering that 23 of his 29 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers. With these odds, the risk is worth taking.
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Houston Astros 
vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 
Betting Picks
- Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-127) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
Kelly was sharp in his last start, pitching seven shutout innings against the Giants in San Francisco. Prior to that, he allowed at least three earned runs in four of last five starts. In three of those outings, he was roughed up for at least five runs. His ERA sits at 5.08 for the season, and his xERA is even worse at 6.93. He allows 1.7 HR/9, and his 1.48 WHIP is on pace to be the highest mark of his career.
Asking Kelly to provide another impressive start is a tall order. The Astros just took three of four games against the White Sox and have scored at least six runs in three of their last five games. Kelly could have a lot of trouble with Yordan Alvarez, who has a .328 ISO and a .482 wOBA at home. One swing of the bat from him alone could help this over cash.
Kansas City Royals 
vs. Toronto Blue Jays 
Betting Picks
- Carter Jensen Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-135) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
Jensen has been productive down the stretch, hitting .382 (13 for 34) with five home runs, 10 RBI and nine runs scored over his last nine games. During that span, his OBP was .488. That included a three-game series against the Blue Jays in Toronto in which he combined for at least two hits, runs and RBI in each matchup.
Jensen will try to stay hot when he faces Jameson Taillon, who is expected to be activated from the injured list after battling a forearm injury. It has been a lost season for the veteran, who has a 5.79 xERA and a 1.37 WHIP. An alarming stat is him allowing 2.8 HR/9. That's troublesome against Jensen, who has already launched 22 homers. This wager is also appealing because the game will be played in Kansas City, where Jensen has a .362 wOBA and a .249 ISO.
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MLB Prop Picks Recap
- Brandon Lowe 1+ walks (+140) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
- Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-127) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
- Carter Jensen Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-135) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
