MLB Picks: Single Game Picks & Props for Thursday, August 27
We have a total of five evening games in Major League Baseball on Thursday, as it's a rather muted slate. However, there are still some huge games on the schedule, and others are very interesting for gambling purposes. The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets meet at Citi Field at 7:10 p.m. ET, and that will be our game of focus. Let's get started!
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Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Best Bets and Predictions
Pick #1: Brewers -1.5 Runs (-105 Caesars, DraftKings and Fanatics)
The Brewers (82-51) and Mets (60-73) wrap up a three-game series at Citi Field on Thursday night, and the National League Central Division leaders have gotten a fight from the cellar-dwellers from the National League East.
The Mets won 3-2 in the opener Tuesday as moderate underdogs (+146) as the Under (7.5) cashed, while the Brewers (-148) routed the Mets 8-1 on Tuesday, again as the Under (10.5) cashed. However, Wednesday was nearly a disaster, as RHP Dustin May exited after just one pitch and one out due to a bruised right shoulder blade as the result of a comebacker from A.J. Ewing. The southpaw Robert Gasser, who is stretched out as a starter, came on in long relief and did an amazing job, allowing just a run in 5 1/3 IP.
Despite the loss on Tuesday, Milwaukee is 7-3 across the past 10 games, and the Brew Crew has won three of the past four outings on the road.
The Brewers turn to fireballer RHP Jacob Misiorowski (13-5, 1.68 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) to secure the series win. He is a whopping 10-3 with a 1.44 ERA and 0.68 WHIP across his past 15 starts, while racking up 136 strikeouts in just 94 IP, so he has had it on cruise control.
Away from home, Misiorowski has been a little more human, going 6-4 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 10 starts across 61.2 IP, while striking out 85 batters. Teams are hitting just .144 against him away from home, so it's going to be a tall order for the scuffling Mets to get to him.
The Mets have alternated losses and wins in the past eight games, but New York is actually a respectable 7-4 in the past 11 games, while going 6-2 in the past eight at home. And, those home games include wins against contenders like the Brewers and San Diego Padres, too, so it's quite impressive. Still, they don't have a prayer against Misiorowski.
The moneyline is a little on the expensive side, however, costing you nearly two times your potential return, with some books even at -200 or higher. Let's back the run line instead.
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Pick #2: Brewers/Mets Under 7.5 Runs (-125 Bet325)
The Under has cashed in each of the past four games for the Mets, as they've managed just five runs in the past three games, or 1.67 runs per game (RPG). The pitching has actually been pretty decent lately for New York at times, too, giving up three or fewer runs in five of the past nine outings.
While RHP Sean Manaea (4-5, 4.31 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) has had some decent numbers overall, the Over has cashed in each of his past four outings, with the offense actually averaging 6.5 RPG in that span, while allowing just 3.3 RPG. Still, New York won't come close to putting that type of offense up against Misiorowski or the bullpen.
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Pick #3: Jacob Misiorowski - Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-115 Bet365)
Misiorowski is obviously a high-strikeout pitcher, going for nine or more punchouts in five of his past eight outings. While he has just six strikeouts in each of his past two starts, those came against the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, two contending teams with strong discipline at the plate.
The Mets have struck out 1,127 times through 133 games, or 8.47 strikeouts per game. That's good for 13th in the majors, and the fifth-highest mark in the National League. Misiorowski will get those totals back up, if not pushing for double digits.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Brewers -1.5 Runs (-105 Caesars, DraftKings and Fanatics)
- Brewers/Mets - Under 7.5 Runs (-125 Bet365)
- Jacob Misiorowski - Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-115 Bet365)
All plays - 1 Unit
