MLB Picks: Single Game Picks & Props for Thursday, August 6
We have four evening games in Major League Baseball (MLB) with first pitches of 7:10 p.m. ET or later. We'll take a deep dive in the American League Central Division battle on ESPN between the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals with a first pitch of 7:30 p.m. ET. Let's get started!
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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals Best Bets and Predictions
Pick #1: Royals ML (-119 DraftKings)
The Twins (56-59) and Royals (48-67) put the bow on a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium on Thursday night at 7:30 p.m. ET in the only nationally-televised game of the evening on ESPN.
Minnesota has had trouble trying to solve the cellar-dwelling Royals, going just 4-8 in the first 12 meetings, including 1-4 in five previous games in Kansas City. That includes an 8-2 loss in the series opener Tuesday, while suffering a 2-1 loss in a pitcher's duel on Wednesday night.
The Twins turn to RHP Bailey Ober (7-3, 4.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), and he'll be opposed by RHP Michael Wacha (5-8, 3.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
At first glance, it appears the advantage should go to Ober, but he has a 5.91 ERA and 1.54 WHIP across 35 IP in his past seven starts. To make matters worse, he has an unseemly 7.15 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with a .317 opponent batting average across 34 IP in seven road starts.
On the flip side, Wacha has a respectable 3.25 ERA across his past seven outings, turning in a 1.13 WHIP in 44.1 IP. He is also 3-3 with a 3.03 ERA across 59.1 IP in nine starts, while teams are hitting just .217 against him in K.C. Advantage Wacha, and advantage Royals.
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Pick #2: Twins/Royals Over 4.5 - 1st 5 Innings (-138 FanDuel)
Looking to the total for the first five innings, let's go against Ober and the Twins, in particular. We should be able to get at least five total runs in the first five innings.
While it was a pitcher's duel on Wednesday, with just three total runs, on Tuesday we saw Kansas City fire out to a 5-1 lead after five frames, cashing the Over for the first five innings. Let's look for a similar result here, as Ober has been abysmal on the road, and that isn't likely to change.
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Pick #3: Bobby Witt Jr. To Record 3+ Total Bases (+135 FanDuel)
Looking to the player props portion of our same-game parlay (SGP), let's focus on the best offensive weapon in the Kansas City dugout.
Witt Jr. has gone hitless in five of the past six games, although he did collect three hits with a double and two RBI in the series opener Tuesday. He is also 12-of-28 (.429) with two doubles, two triples, a home run, five RBI and a .750 SLG and 1.179 OPS in his career against Ober.
I considered Minnesota's Royce Lewis for at least a hit, as he enters on a 10-game hitting streak, going 14-for-37 (.378) with two homers and seven RBI. However, he is hitless in seven career at-bats against Wacha, so let's stick with Witt.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Royals ML (-119 DraftKings)
- Twins/Royals Over 4.5 Runs - 1st 5 Innings (-138 FanDuel)
- Bobby Witt Jr. - 3+ Total Bases (+135 FanDuel)
All plays - 1 Unit
