MLB Picks: Single Game Picks & Props for Thursday, July 30
Our friend Eric Timm has moved on to another job, so it's sad to see him go right before the trade deadline. I'll step into the lineup for him on Thursdays for the rest of the season, and we'll see if I am simply a rental player, or if I have a long-term position in the vacated slot.
On Thursday, we have a total of 10 games on the slate, with four first pitches at 2:15 p.m. ET or earlier. We'll focus on an evening game so you can get situated.
The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves meet at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, while the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers meet at 10:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network. The latter is going to be our game of focus. Let's get started!
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Seattle Mariners at L.A. Dodgers Best Bets and Predictions
Pick #1: Dodgers ML (-155 Caesars)
The Mariners turn to RHP Bryan Woo (7-7, 4.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) for the start in Thursday's interleague battle against the Dodgers. While his overall numbers don't look terrible on the surface, I am not sure anybody has more stark splits than Woo.
Woo is 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA with four homers allowed, while teams are hitting just .167 against him in 57.1 IP across nine home starts. Great, right? Well, on the road, he is a dismal 1-7 with a 6.52 ERA, while serving up eight homers across 58 IP in 11 starts. Teams are also teeing off against him to the tune of a .304 average in starts away from home. Ouch.
The 24-year-old Roki Sasaki takes the ball for the Dodgers, and while he hasn't been great overall, either, we'll all-in against Woo on the road due to those horrific splits.
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Pick #2: Mariners/Dodgers Over 4.5 - 1st 5 Innings (-118 FanDuel)
The Mariners and the Dodgers played a high-scoring game in the opener of the series, with Seattle scratching out a 7-6 victory on Monday at Chavez Ravine.
While an 8.5-run number seems a bit high after a lower-scoring game on Tuesday, consider the fact Woo has a ginormous ERA on the road, while Sasaki has a 4.71 ERA overall, and just a slightly improved 4.60 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Look for both starters to get knocked around a little during the early going, paving the way to an Over result for the first five innings.
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Pick #3: Shohei Ohtani To Record 2+ Total Bases (-145 FanDuel)
Ohtani gets to face Woo, and he has to be licking his chops. The current assortment of Dodgers are just 4-for-22 (.182) against Woo. Again, based on those disgusting road splits, don't let Woo's solid numbers lifetime against the current L.A. batters fool you. It's a small sample size, and things can go sideways in a hurry.
Speaking of small sample sizes, Ohtani has collected three hits in six at-bats against Woo, with one of those balls leaving the yard. He also has two RBI and two walks against Woo lifetime. It isn't much, but what there is has been good. Look for Showtime Shohei to get the job done, and get at least two total bases, if not more.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Dodgers ML (-155 Caesars)
- Mariners/Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs - 1st 5 Innings (-118 FanDuel)
- Shohei Ohtani - 2+ Total Bases (-145 FanDuel)
All plays - 1 Unit
