MLB Picks: Single Game Picks & Props for Thursday, September 17
We have five evening games in Major League Baseball (MLB) on Thursday, including national-regional FOX games featuring either the Philadelphia Phillies-New York Mets, or the Kansas City Royals-Houston Astros.
Last week in this column, we ended up 2-1 (66.7%, +113), and that's 5-1 (83.3%, +423) in the past two weeks. Let's keep up the good work in a late-night game between the Minnesota Twins-Los Angeles Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET, and maybe pair it with some college football, or the titanic NFL matchup featuring the Detroit Lions-Buffalo Bills at the new Highmark Stadium. Let's get started!
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Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels Best Bets and Predictions
Pick #1: Twins Moneyline (-108 FanDuel)
The Twins (71-81) and Angels (58-94) square off at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, kicking off a four-game series. The Twins, sitting in fourth place of the American League Central Division, is on life support in terms of the American League wild-card race. They're six games back of the Chicago White Sox with 10 games remaining in the regular season.
The Twins are 31-43 on the road, but they're 14-10 against the AL West Division. Among the teams still mathematically alive for a postseason spot in the AL, Minnesota has the worst run differential at minus-73.
Minnesota rolls out RHP Taj Bradley (11-6, 3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) for the important start, and the Twins essentially have to win out, or come close to it. And, even that might not be enough. He is coming off a sterling effort against the Cleveland Guardians at Target Field last Friday, allowing just a single hit with four walks and six strikeouts across six scoreless innings in a no-decision. He is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA (18 IP, 5 ER) in the past three outings, so he is doing his job.
The Angels counter with impressive rookie RHP Walbert Urena (9-10, 2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), and the 22-year-old Dominican pitcher has been showing some signs of letting up lately. He is 2-3 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the past seven starts, so there have been some slight cracks in the foundation.
Minnesota is just 2-5 in the past seven games, and 4-9 in the past 13 outings. Since Aug. 19, the Twins are 3-2 in the past five outings by Bradley, however.
For the Halos, they're 2-4 in the past six games, and 6-16 since Aug. 23. They're 1-4 in the past five starts by Urena, too, including three one-run losses. We'll side with Twins on the moneyline, though, as it is too expensive to take the Angels on the run line as underdogs.
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Pick #2: Twins/Angels Over 7.5 Runs (-105 Bet365)
Looking to the total, it's all about the Over lately for the Angels, going 4-1 in the past five games. They've allowed at least four runs in six of the past seven outings since Sept. 9, while averaging a healthy 4.4 runs per game (RPG) in the past eight contests.
For the Twins, they've cashed high in four consecutive games, with the pitching staff allowing 29 runs in the past four outings, or 7.3 RPG, while giving up 80 runs in the past 13 contests, or 6.1 RPG since Sept. 2.
Since the total is so low, we'll side with the Over, as at least eight runs should be within reach.
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Pick #3: Taj Bradley Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132 Caesars)
For Bradley's strikeout total, let's go high. The Angels strike out more than any other team in the American League, posting 1,444 strikeouts across 152 games, or 9.50 strikeouts per game. In fact, the Cincinnati Reds have struck out 1,455 times in 153 games, or 9.51 strikeouts per game to lead the majors. It's very possible the Halos end up leading the majors in whiffs.
The Angels are hitting just .234 this season, too, with a slugging percentage of .371, easily the worst mark in the league. And, L.A. has the worst OPS at .680, and it is the only team under .689.
We're going to load up on Bradley against the free-swinging Angels to get to at least seven strikeouts.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Twins Moneyline (-108 FanDuel)
- Twins/Angels Over 7.5 Runs (-105 Bet365)
- Taj Bradley Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132 Caesars)
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