In the final handful of editions of the Barometer for this season, we'll continue to try to blend the outlook for players for the rest of the 2026 regular season as well as look forward to 2027. After looking at some young breakout hitters last week, we'll shift the focus to some post-hype pitchers who have redeemed themselves from underwhelming starts to the season, or in some cases the last few years. The article will mostly focus on the positive performers, though we'll also look at a few of the underwhelming arms as well.
Risers
Perez has had a tale of two seasons in 2026, but the end result is that he's taken the step forward hoped for during draft season. The dividing line of Perez's campaign came when he was placed on the injured list in late May with a leg injury. Prior to that placement, he posted a 4.60 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 62.2 innings. Home runs and control were a major problem in that span, even though he was still able to generate strikeouts.
Since his return, Perez has posted a 2.00 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, while posting an improved 7.8 percent walk rate and excellent 0.33 HR/9. He's deployed a key change in pitch mix, adding a sinker consistently for the first time in his career. What has followed is an increased groundball rate of 38.5 percent and a miniscule1.3 percent barrel rate since the All-Star break – the best in the league
In the final handful of editions of the Barometer for this season, we'll continue to try to blend the outlook for players for the rest of the 2026 regular season as well as look forward to 2027. After looking at some young breakout hitters last week, we'll shift the focus to some post-hype pitchers who have redeemed themselves from underwhelming starts to the season, or in some cases the last few years. The article will mostly focus on the positive performers, though we'll also look at a few of the underwhelming arms as well.
Risers
Perez has had a tale of two seasons in 2026, but the end result is that he's taken the step forward hoped for during draft season. The dividing line of Perez's campaign came when he was placed on the injured list in late May with a leg injury. Prior to that placement, he posted a 4.60 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 62.2 innings. Home runs and control were a major problem in that span, even though he was still able to generate strikeouts.
Since his return, Perez has posted a 2.00 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, while posting an improved 7.8 percent walk rate and excellent 0.33 HR/9. He's deployed a key change in pitch mix, adding a sinker consistently for the first time in his career. What has followed is an increased groundball rate of 38.5 percent and a miniscule1.3 percent barrel rate since the All-Star break – the best in the league among qualified pitchers in that span.
Perez's performance isn't all that surprising given his pedigree, but it is also encouraging that he has built up his innings relative to his past workloads that have been limited due to injury. Despite the short stint on the injured list, Perez has thrown a career-high 116.1 innings and could be setting himself up for a full breakout in 2027.
The Diamondbacks have surged in the last six weeks and entered themselves firmly in the National League wild card conversation. Pfaadt has had a considerable hand in that, posting a 1.15 ERA and 30:7 K:BB across 54.1 innings in his last nine starts. He hasn't allowed an earned run in his last four starts, during which he's covered 27.2 innings. Any stretch of run prevention to that extent is impressive, but the context of Pfaadt's season is what adds even a bit more juice to his current run. Pfaadt began the campaign as a starter, was demoted to the bullpen and was sent to Triple-A by the end of June. He returned on June 30 and has delivered the results just laid out.
The key to success is pretty clear, as Pfaadt has allowed only 0.16 HR/9 since his return to the majors. A change to his arsenal looks to be the key. In prior big-league samples, Pfaadt has struggled with giving up home runs to left-handed hitters, with his career rate being 1.41 HR/9. Since June 30, Pfaadt has used his changeup as his second most-frequent pitch, which looks to have neutralized lefties effectively.
Rogers was included in an article just under two months ago in which I tried to project some of the pitchers who were in line for improved results. He was included based on the gap between his ERA and xERA/SIERA, yet he's managed to generate more swings and misses in the meantime. At the time of writing the first article about Rogers, he had a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate. Since, that mark has risen to 12.2 percent, and he's unsurprisingly seen a corresponding increase in strikeout rate to 25.3 percent. Rogers' career has always been a series of one step forward and two steps back, so it's hard to say how long the positive stretch will continue, but he's a desirable pitcher to roster for the stretch as things currently stand.
Cavalli is an interesting case, because there's no obvious reason for his better results when taking a quick glance at his skills. However, he added a sweeper that seems to have tied together his entire arsenal. While it was a limited sample, Cavalli had reverse platoon splits by allowing 1.53 HR/9 and a .427 wOBA against righties in 2025. The sweeper is his second-most used pitch against right-handers to this point, and it's been an effective, offering both generating whiffs and limiting hard contact. The result has been a far more reasonable .280 wOBA and 0.78 HR/9.
There are also some skills that Cavalli has carried over from year-to-year that are helping him have success. His overall ability to limit home runs and damaging hits should be strong, primarily due to a groundball rate that has consistently stuck around 50 percent. Even when batted balls are lifted by opposing hitters, Cavalli has effectively limited pulled air rates to well better than a league-average rate. That combination should allow Cavalli to keep the ball in the yard, and his improved walk rate means he is limiting mistakes in the key areas to succeed.
Sasaki has seemingly made two key adjustments to his post All-Star break action. The first was a shift to a bigger glove in an effort to mask a pitch-tipping problem. The second was a mechanical change in Sasaki's lower body, which helped him locate his pitches more consistently. That appears to have directly led to his best and most consistent run since he signed to the MLB, as he's posted a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 30 innings.
That isn't to say fantasy managers are completely clear of the volatility that has haunted Sasaki for much of his first two seasons in the majors. He still has a 10.1 percent walk rate in that same five-game stretch, leading to a modest 13.3 K-BB percentage. Nevertheless, Sasaki has a 3.26 xERA since the break, and there seems to be an explanation behind the improved results. The frustrating start to his time stateside makes all improvement noteworthy, and his recent sample has at least been a small step forward.
Fallers
Rodriguez looked to be figuring things out for a brief two-start stretch from late July into early August, but he's since turned in a pair of short starts that were riddled with inefficiency and control problems. There is still reason to consider Rodriguez in the long term. He is generating swings and misses at a very strong rate since the All-Star break (12.5 percent) and has already regained his typical velocity. Similarly, his struggles with control can be chalked up to rust from nearly a two-year absence. Given that context, there is still some hope for Rodriguez in the long term, but it doesn't look to be a wise idea to trust him in the head-to-head playoff matchups or for a late push in a roto format.
Bradley looked to have taken a legitimate step forward for most of the first half, but his struggles to perform consistently continue to haunt him. More specifically, he has gone from an 18.1 K-BB percentage in the first half to just 9.5 percent in his six starts since the All-Star break. Two problems remain consistent for Bradley. The first is poor results on his fastball, as nine of the 19 home runs he's given up this season have come up against the pitch. Bradley's splitter is his primary pitch to neutralize lefties, but it has done a poor job of keeping the ball in the yard to the tune of a 1.58 HR/9. That problem isn't new for him, meaning the bottom line is that Bradley is still looking for a solution to the problems that have plagued him throughout his career.
