Top 400 Prospect Rankings Update

The massive update to the RotoWire Top 400 Prospect Rankings is live, as are the Team Top 20s and ETAs. There were dozens of deserving prospects who didn't make the cut this time around, as the talent in the minors has been fully restocked thanks to a bevy of breakouts and the addition of 62 prospects from the 2026 First-Year Player Draft.

I strongly recommend utilizing the tools on the Top 400, such as the FYPD toggle that allows you to exclude 2026 draftees, since you're not allowed to add them yet in most dynasty leagues. You should also be syncing your dynasty leagues with the Top 400 using the My Leagues feature so that you can quickly figure out which prospects are available in your league.

This might be a record for most mailbag questions on an update to the Top 400, so thanks to everyone who took the time to send in a question! 

Here's the podcast version of the mailbag:

Here's the written version:

Before getting to the questions, here are the tiers:

Tier 1: Jesus Made (1)

Tier 2: Mike Sirota (2) - Josue De Paula (5)

Tier 3: Sebastian Walcott (6) - Walker Jenkins (12)

Tier 4: Grady Emerson (13) - Juneiker Caceres (28)

Tier 5: George Lombard (29) - Josuar Gonzalez (42)

Tier 6: Tyler Bell (43) - Josue Briceno (64)

Tier 7: Taitn Gray (65) - Devin Fitz-Gerald (102)

Tier 8: Josiah Ragsdale (103) - Gio Rojas (153)

Tier 9: Albert Fermin (154) - Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (232)

Tier 10: Ryan Mitchell (233) - Jack Winnay (312)

Tier 11: Tai Peete (313) - Elian Rosario (400)

Caleb Benoit: Of the Top 25, is there anyone with a better than 50/50 chance of starting next season (assuming there is one) on an MLB roster?

Kade Anderson (SEA), Joshua Baez (STL), Walker Jenkins (MIN), Max Clark (DET) and Franklin Arias (BOS) clearly have a better than 50 percent chance of being on an Opening Day roster in 2027. 

Jesus Made (MIL), Mike Sirota (LAD), Leo De Vries (ATH), Josue De Paula (LAD), Sebastian Walcott (TEX), Ryan Sloan (SEA), Aidan Miller (PHI), Roch Cholowsky (CHW), Ralphy Velazquez (CLE) all have a realistic path to making an Opening Day roster as well, but more hinges on how the rest of their season + offseason + spring training goes.

Moses: I am curious about your aggressive ranking of Dodgers OF prospects. Not doubting their talent, but opportunity seems lacking relative to other top prospects, with Kyle Tucker and Andy Pages entrenched at their spots and Shohei Ohtani as DH. I know in the past you've said you don't like assuming trades in how you rank guys. Are these guys just so talented relative to the rest of the pool that opportunity had less weight than it's had with other prospects?

I'm a huge believer in Mike Sirota and Josue De Paula, and while I'd been discounting them a little this whole time due to the crowded situation, I felt they'd gotten to a point where their talent and production was undeniable at Double-A. The Dodgers are a smart team, and they know how good these guys are — particularly Sirota and De Paula. I can envision a scenario where one or both are still in the minors a couple months into next season, but I don't believe it would have been good process to rank them behind players I think are a tier below them from a talent standpoint, especially when these guys are essentially big-league ready. 

I also like Eduardo Quintero, Charles Davalan and Zach Ehrhard more than consensus (I think), and those guys would be even higher if they were in another organization.

ChzBeef: What kind of fantasy player do you think Mike Sirota is? No one likes to do comps… but is this like, prime Brandon Nimmo? Curious what the production might look like, he doesn't seem prodigious anywhere but like, plate discipline

I don't know if this was intended to be shady, but I was slightly offended and I was offended on Sirota's behalf. I ranked Sirota that highly because I think he has star upside. If I thought a Double-A prospect would produce like prime Nimmo I'd probably rank them outside the top 30 or 40, just because the ceiling isn't high enough. I know you weren't comparing them as prospects, but Nimmo never had an ISO above .189 in full-season ball and Sirota has never had an ISO below .219 in full-season ball. I also think Sirota is two levels above Nimmo as an athlete, and Nimmo was an underrated athlete. Sirota has elite bat speed and plus foot speed, an elite approach, ideal launch angles, elite production, it all adds up to a potential fantasy star for me. 

J3KDF: Is Mike Sirota (LAD) an early or late 2027 call up?

I'll say early, but it's a very fluid situation.

Hamiltron: Mike Sirota (LAD) rocketed up your list but I can't recall the last time a 23-year-old in AA made your top 5. Is there that much of a gap between Jesus Made (MIL) and Leo De Vries (ATH)?

Yoel: How different are Mike Sirota (LAD) and Edward Florentino (PIT)/how confident are you in Sirota over Leo De Vries (ATH)?

I've got Sirota and De Vries in the same tier and right next to each other, so not confident, and part of me wishes I'd just put Sirota at three so that people weren't distracted by him being over De Vries when I've got them in the same tier. I just think Sirota's ceiling is a tiny bit higher, but it's really close between those two. 

As for Sirota vs. Florentino, Sirota is currently a better pure hitter by a full grade, if not more, but Florentino regressed this year compared to 2025, so he could always get back on track in that department. I also think Sirota projects to steal more bases than Florentino and have less of a platoon problem. Plus Sirota is big-league ready now and Florentino is a couple years away from being big-league ready. Some would argue Florentino has a higher power ceiling — I think they're both going be 30-plus homer hitters at peak, but Florentino probably has a better chance of hitting 40 some day.

Gabriel Garcia: Josue De Paula (LAD) has about 1500 ABs in his minor league career. When comparing Kyle Tucker's 2000 ABs, body type, pedigree, youth and track record, can he be Tucker 2.0? Do you anticipate JDP staying in the OF long term and is it wild to think of him as a perennial borderline 1st rounder?

They're similar in that they've had lengthy, illustrious minor-league careers, but De Paula has more in common on the field with Tucker's former teammate Yordan Alvarez. De Paula may steal double-digit bases in the majors, particularly early on, but it's the damage he'll do at the plate that will get him drafted in fantasy and get him a spot in the Dodgers' lineup despite poor defensive chops. Like Alvarez, De Paula has a chance to be the rare elite slugger who also hits for elite ratios. I think De Paula could replace Freddie Freeman at first base in 2028, but I'm not sure how he fits in sooner than that, unfortunately. 

Matthew King: What would you guess as the rough date for a Kade Anderson (SEA) call-up?

I'll guess somewhere in the Aug. 15-Aug. 23 range. That allows him to retain his rookie status heading into 2027 so that the Mariners can potentially get a Prospect Promotion Incentive pick. He could be up sooner if the Mariners deal with an injury in the rotation after potentially trading Luis Castillo at the deadline.

Scooter: Colt Emerson — slow start but will be productive in the near future, or maybe his performance in the majors so far suggests that he's not quite as good as expected? No longer eligible, but where would he slot in now?

Emerson was a really good prospect, but not an elite one — he was never in my top five, for instance. Hitting in the big leagues is the hardest thing to do, and he just turned 21, so I'm not closing the door on him still being a very good fantasy option. However, he was also worse at Triple-A this year than I expected and worse than he was at that level at the end of 2025. I think coming into 2026, you could have said Emerson's ceiling was a 70-grade hitter with plus power and double-digit steals. I think he could still eventually be a plus power hitter, but the hit tool looks closer to above-average long term. If eligible, I would slot him around Ralphy Velazquez (CLE) at 25th overall.

Hamiltron: Franklin Arias (BOS) is having a phenomenal age-20 season in AA but he's only 16th. Are you not buying that his power will stick?

I think he'll hit around .280 with 20-plus homers and single-digit steals. That's pretty high praise, but it's not a high enough ceiling to get into the top 10 for me. 

DiatomaceousChris: Others are down on Tate Southisene's (ATL) power, I'm guessing you are not concerned on that front?

Bob May: I would love a deep dive into the huge Tate Southisene (ATL) jump and what you are projecting for him in the majors. Does he stick at SS?

NE Nature Boy: What are you seeing with Tate Southisene (ATL) to jump him up to 18? K-rate seems a little high for that kind of jump...

Southisene is the anti-Franklin Arias in that his tools are tailormade for fantasy. He really pops to me on video with the bat speed and athleticism. He has a .189 ISO, a 22.5 percent strikeout rate, 9.2 percent swinging-strike rate, 76.6 percent contact rate, 12 homers and 43 steals in 85 games as an athletic 19-year-old shortstop climbing multiple full-season levels. That level of power in full-season ball as a teenager combined with his bat speed gives me zero concerns about the long-term power output. I also disagree about the K-rate being too high, given his age and level. His shortstop defense is more of a question mark — he might fit best at second base in a perfect situation, but I don't know if Atlanta will have a shortstop when Southisene is ready, and I don't think they'd move him off anytime soon. Guys like Jazz Chisholm and CJ Abrams aren't perfect players/hitters, but the fact they can hit 20-plus homers with 30-plus steals keeps them in the top 50 in redraft leagues every year. I think Southisene could bring similar stats to the table.

Thairo: Can Alfredo Duno (CIN) get to the majors this year? He is already in AA and doing well. Does Cincinnati ever have players jump over AAA?

I can't recall a time where the Reds jumped someone over Triple-A. I also just don't really see what the point would be in bringing up Duno this year. He's not a perfect defensive catcher, and he has only been at Double-A for 12 games, plus the Reds aren't contending. I think a best-case scenario if you've got Duno is that he has such a strong finish at Double-A and Triple-A this season that he's a realistic candidate to compete for an Opening Day spot in spring training next year. 

Jknows: Curious to know your reason for dropping Ralphy Velazquez (CLE) out of the top 10 all the way to 25? He seems to still be projecting well as a power bat in AAA...

I love Velazquez, but I'm pretty surprised at how much he struggled to make contact at Triple-A (15.8 SwStr%, 68.8 Contact%). I know he has been better lately, but I thought he had some Freddie Freeman potential and I don't think the hit tool is going to be quite that good anymore. Velazquez could still be a plus hitter with plus power, which is awesome, and there's really no shame in being a first baseman who barely cracks the top 25 on this loaded update.

Nelvin Elsley: It looks like Edward Florentino (PIT) is starting to adapt to the higher level and rake again. Do you have any updated thoughts on him? And/or when a guy struggles at a new level how long do you give him before you decide it's more than just an adjustment period?

He's raking, but he's also whiffing plenty while raking (12:3 K:BB in last seven games). The two biggest shifts in Florentino's profile this year are that he went from pristine contact data last year to mediocre contact data this year, and he's also slowing down (6-for-13 on SB attempts in 65 games) on the bases. The latter development isn't necessarily surprising, but it's happening and wasn't a given to happen this year. He can get the strikeouts in check and climb back up into the top 10-20, but right now I'm viewing him as a power-over-hit cleanup hitter, which is still great but it's looking closer to three categories than five categories at the moment.

JB: Where would Henry Bolte (ATH) rank if still eligible?

I said Colt Emerson would be around Ralphy Velazquez at 25. Bolte would be 5-10 spots below that by Josh Adamczewski (MIL) at 31. I wouldn't say I'm surprised by anything in Bolte's debut, but it could have been an opportunity for him to improve on the launch angle with the big-league coaches and that hasn't happened yet. 

Bob May: How much power do you think Cam Cannarella (MIA) will have in the majors? Any MLB players you would comp him to?

OA Rookie: I've seen Brandon Nimmo as a player comp for Cam Cannarella (MIA). Do you think 20+ homers with great OBP is a fair projection?

Another Brandon Nimmo mention! This one is less of a slap in the face. Cannarella was tough to rank because I love the player, but when someone is not getting challenged at a level the way Cannarella was at High-A and Double-A, it can be tough to get a clear picture of what their stats will look like at the highest level. He's a hit-over-power prospect whose power will come from the strength of his hit tool — kind of like we're seeing from Sam Antonacci this year. I don't mind the Brandon Nimmo comp as a realistic floor comp for Cannarella. The biggest things to watch are Cannarella's groundball rate (50 percent at Double-A) and stolen bases (11-for-15 in 56 games this year). He has a .435 OBP, so it's not a given he'll attempt 15 steals every 56 games.

Ryan Coyle: Love the rise for Juneiker Caceres (CLE). What is his upside? 

Contends for batting titles in his mid-20s while hitting 25 homers and stealing 15 bases.

Ryan Coyle: Tell me more about Angeibel Gomez (KC) I've seen some blurbs on Baseball America, but hard to get much info on DSL guys...

He looks like a prototypical five-category outfielder in fantasy — the kind that goes in the first round every year. Power? Check. Speed? Check. Way more flyballs than groundballs? Check? More walks than strikeouts? Check. Age/level? Check. Do scouts love him? Yes. There's just nothing to quibble with other than the fact he's in the DSL.

Gabriel Garcia: Jefferson Rojas (CHC) seems like he's been around forever but just turned 21 in April. How do you see him breaking into the Cubs lineup? Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are all signed for the next 3 years. Ian Happ is gone after this year, do you think Rojas moves to the OF?

Well, the Cubs didn't try to clear a spot for first-rounder Matt Shaw, so I wouldn't expect them to clear a spot for Rojas. Still, he's so solid across the board, it's an easy profile to believe in long term. Rojas' shortstop defense is half the real-life appeal, so I don't love the idea of moving him to the outfield. Maybe they move Alex Bregman to first base and Michael Busch to DH when Seiya Suzuki leaves this offseason, as Rojas certainly has the arm for third base.

Delightful: When you look at a player like Andrew Fischer (MIL) and try to balance his video-game power with his Ks, how do you balance the bipolar nature of his stats? Have you ever considered adding a volatility factor or another metric to better frame the upside or downside going forward?

I haven't talked to anyone who thinks they've got a great handle on what Fischer will be when it's all said and done. There's obviously a concerning amount of swing-and-miss in his game, but he doesn't chase too much (26.9 O-Swing%), he just takes big cuts at pitches in the zone and swings through more of them than the typical high-end offensive prospect. If it was flipped, and he just chased everything while making a lot of contact, I'd be lower on him, but I can at least see a path to 40 homers here, albeit with a low AVG and hopefully a high OBP. Fischer and Joshua Baez (STL) were the two guys on this update where I felt I gave them a bit of a pass for the strikeouts, under the assumption that they aren't finished products and can still adjust and improve. Both players have a very low batting average floor in the majors and extremely high ceilings as run producers. 

As for adding a volatility factor/metric, I won't be adding anything else that needs to be updated with each update. There's already a ton of work that goes into updating everything behind the scenes with each update to the prospect rankings, I can't add anything else to the process.

OA Rookie: Angel Genao (CLE) is slashing .421/.516/.632 over his last 95 PA, and has a 104.4 EV90, but fell 21 spots. Is that just due to what other players did or did you also feel like you over ranked him on the last update?


Yeah, I just overranked Genao a little on the last update. He's still a very good prospect, but he has a 55.7 percent groundball rate and a 20.8 HR/FB, so he's over his head as a power hitter and doesn't have the highest ceiling as a base stealer, relative to other shortstop prospects.

DiatomaceousChris: Big fall for Luis Pena (MIL). Anything else you are seeing besides health issues for him? 

Buck: Luis Pena (MIL) and Josue Briceno (DET) drop because of health concerns?

Pena's power has been missing this year (.096 ISO, 51.7 GB%) at High-A. That's the main reason he fell, not the health stuff. Additionally, the improved stock of players like Josh Adamczewski (MIL) and Brady Ebel (MIL) puts more pressure on Pena to keep pace on the march to the majors. 

Aaron Stoltenberg: Who's your best guess top 5 overall (and top 3 SP) at this time in 2027?

Chief Eth: It seems like a lot of the top 100 should debut/graduate at sometime next season at the latest (assuming we have a season). Who do you predict will be topping your list prior to 2028?

These are great questions, and I'll actually be dedicating next week's entire podcast to this topic. Stay tuned!

John: Who are the prospects you think are most likely to hit 30 home runs at some point?

Most likely: Jesus Made (MIL), Mike Sirota (LAD), Josue De Paula (LAD), Sebastian Walcott (TEX), Rainiel Rodriguez (STL), Joshua Baez (STL), Alfredo Duno (CIN)

Next group: Ralphy Velazquez (CLE), Edward Florentino (PIT), Josh Adamczewski (MIL), Zyhir Hope (LAD), Caleb Bonemer (CHW), Andrew Fischer (MIL), Josiah Hartshorn (CHC), Charlie Condon (COL)

Satoshis for Sam: Did you see any Phish in Madison? Love the Hayden Alvarez (LAA) rank...

I went to both nights of Phish in Madison! One night with my best friend since 1st grade, who I also went to the Super Ball IX festival with back in 2011, and one night with my wife. I probably knew 20 people in the crowd both nights, so it was fun bumping into people each night and both shows were fantastic.

DA CUZ BO: How much power do you project from Hayden Alvarez (LAA) long term?

15-plus homers in his mid-to-late 20s with 30 steals and a potential leadoff role.

Jacob White: Why is Jackson Flora (SF) not higher/why is his ETA 2028? Giants thin at SP, would think Flora gets a look next summer...

I agree that Flora will get a look next summer if he proves ready, but I don't think he's on the Paul Skenes/Chase Burns/Kade Anderson level as a fast mover. Frankly, I liked Jamie Arnold (ATH) and Tyler Bremner (LAA) more going into last year's draft than I did Flora going into this year's and I liked Kyson Witherspoon (BOS) and Liam Doyle (STL) about the same as Flora. Obviously Arnold and Bremner aren't knocking on the door this year, and I don't expect Flora to be on a faster timetable than those guys, but I could be wrong.

BMo: Which players from last week's draft had the best landing spots?

Liam Peterson (CLE) and Tyler Bell (COL) win this pretty easily, as Peterson is all stuff and no polish, and the Guardians are on the short list of teams I'd bet on to maximize him. Bell is a a middle infielder I thought could hit around .260 while flirting with 20/20 seasons, but in Coors, he could be a true five-category guy and Ezequiel Tovar won't be standing in his way. I also like AJ Gracia going to Atlanta because there's nobody in his way, and Daniel Jackson going to the Rockies gives him the best chance of hitting for a palatable average to go with his monster physical tools.

Beerbot: Big jump for Braylon Doughty (CLE) from 214 to 76...maybe a few words on this as could he be on his way from a future #3 to possibly an ace or #2?

I think a No. 2 starter pitching for a good team in a good park is Doughty's projection at this point, which in some years could lead to him being a top-20 fantasy SP. His groundballs are up at Double-A (57.7 GB%) and his 21.5 K-BB% is still excellent, even if it's a step down from the 24.9 K-BB% he logged at High-A. It's extremely rare for a prep righty to be on this path and actually see it all the way through, reaching the majors without an injury or some unforeseen control struggles popping up along the way. I'm factoring that in with Doughty's rank (and Ryan Sloan (SEA) and Seth Hernandez's (PIT) ranks), but if Doughty were to stay healthy over the next two years, I don't see him not working out.

OA Rookie: Is Brady Ebel (MIL) potentially Colt Emerson 2.0?


Maybe? I'm not going to adopt that comp, but I'm not dismissing it either. Ebel was perhaps the prospect who I just kept pushing up the more I looked at him on this update. I kept comparing his under-the-hood data to middle infielders in that same range like Sebastian Dos Santos (STL), Cooper Flemming (TB), Seaver King (WSH), Demetrio Crisantes (ARI), John Gil (ATL), Felnin Celesten (SEA) and Ebel's data was as good or better than those guys in most categories, particularly anything hit tool related. This is a really small thing that didn't factor into his rank, but it's got to be a mark in Ebel's favor that the Brewers "reached" for his younger brother Trey Ebel in the first round this year. They wanted more Ebels. 

Hsampson: Curious on your thoughts on Demetrio Crisantes (ARI) — double up arrows and ranked just inside the top 100. Game power holding him back from a much higher ranking? Feel he's such a safe player because the hit tool looks to be at least plus...

There are just a few things to nitpick with Crisantes: he chases a bit more (33.2 O-Swing%) than I'd like from a no-doubt 60-grade hit tool and potentially plus-plus hit tool guy. He also had an OPS 200 points higher in hitter-friendly Amarillo than away from Amarillo, which may mean nothing or could mean something. He's also not a great defender, and he's capped as a four-category guy (0-for-2 on steals this year), so the hit tool and power need to be as advertised. I think he'll make it as an everyday second baseman who is drafted in all serious redraft leagues but is never a top-100 pick.

OA Rookie: Enddy Azocar (BOS) and Sebastian Dos Santos (STL) haven't torn up their new levels just yet, but what has you willing to significantly raise them up the ranks in spite of that? 

Despite my Mike Sirota (LAD) ranking, I'm actually a big believer in age/level mattering in prospect evaluation, and Dos Santos is a young 18 at Single-A and Azocar is a young 19 at High-A. Dos Santos having a .322 ISO and 19.6 BB% in complex ball was extremely impressive. Azocar's got big-time power/speed upside, and Boston's aggressiveness with him combined with his ability to keep the strikeouts in a non-scary range thus far is really encouraging. It may not seem great, but for Azocar to have a .201 ISO while running a 28.2 K% at High-A is impressive, given his age and raw tools.

Travis Pastore: Interested in your read on Anthony Eyanson (BOS). I know the arrows aren't everything but a little surprised to see him drop with how much success he's had. Is it an issue with walks or how his style may translate to the next level?

Yeah, I probably lowered Eyanson 20-30 spots too many. I loved so many of the top 100 and borderline top 100 hitters on this update that I was looking for any reason to move pitchers down, but Eyanson should probably be up by Braylon Doughty (CLE) and Gage Wood (PHI).

Gordy Meyers: Devin Fitz-Gerald (WSH) taking so long to adjust to AA seemed like a huge red flag to me before seeing your rankings drop. As in, "is he going to rock in MLB when he's 23?" If no, I tend to move on; he seemed like a no. Am I on the right track or missing something else entirely?

Fitz-Gerald has been a bit unlucky (.276 BABIP), but he doesn't have plus raw power or plus speed, so his hitting needs to drive the profile, and right now he's not hitting at Double-A. Fitz-Gerald could be a good big leaguer when he's 23, but he's not a blue chip dynasty prospect, so I understand churning him if you've got other top 100 guys to choose from. 

Chuck: What kind of ceiling do you see from Ramon Marquez (PHI), and do you think he will still be on the Phillies through the deadline? Also, are there any top 100 prospects you view as having a higher chance of being dealt this year?

Marquez could be a No. 2 starter — he's a big-time bat-misser (23.1 SwStr%) and has a career-best 51.4 percent groundball rate at High-A. He's got one of the best changeups in the minors and opposite-handed hitters have needed a .414 BABIP to notch a .607 OPS against Marquez this year. 

I don't expect Marquez to be traded, because I don't expect any prospect of his caliber to be dealt this year for a rental. However, if the Phillies wanted to acquire a non-rental at the deadline, they could move Marquez to accomplish that. I'd love to see a prospect-for-prospect trade involving a Dodgers outfielder or two, but prospect-for-prospect or prospect-for-non-rental like the Mason Miller deal last year are the only ways I can see anyone in my top 100 getting dealt this year.

Hamiltron: Aiva Arquette (MIA) did enough to make significant jumps on other lists but fell on yours. Do you expect to see him struggle in AA post injury?

He was tough to place, and I don't mind someone else having him 30-40 spots higher than me, as there were iterations of the update where he was higher. Arquette was really aggressive and chasing more than expected prior to his injury, but sometimes that happens when a good hitter is at a level they're too good for. Obviously he was unlucky on balls in play (.214 BABIP), but he was also lucky on homers (25.9 HR/FB). It's a small and noisy sample to say the least, which will lead to volatility in different rankings. 

John H: Would appreciate updates on Dax Kilby (NYY) and Steele Hall (CIN)... Would have almost expected their ranks to be flipped given Dax's injury and Steele's production...

BMT: What's behind the double-down arrow on Steele Hall (CIN)? The stat line is great, but does the underlying data just confirm the hit tool concerns?

Hall's slash line and counting stats are great, but Kilby has been hurt all year and still has more career plate appearances above rookie ball than Hall. The reason for this, is that Hall has a 69 percent contact rate in rookie ball and would probably show significant struggles if he were promoted to full-season ball. I don't ding hitters to much for missing time with isolated injuries, and I'm much more confident in Kilby's ability to hit at Single-A because he's already done it.

OA Rookie: What factors in Rafe Perich's profile have you willing to debut him 200 spots higher than Owen Ayers (CHC), and above sluggers who are younger and have dominated AAA like Kemp Alderman (MIA) and Sean Keys (TOR)? Basically, what triggers you to buy into a hitter who is ancient for their level?

Babbo B: While he puts up big numbers, Rafe Perich (TEX) doesn't show up in any mainstream Top 30 lists for the Rangers, much less any other overall top prospect lists. Concerns include platoon splits vs. lefties and age-to-level. What do you see in him that makes you more of a believer?

First of all, I definitely should have had Alderman a bit higher, maybe around 100 overall. I prefer Alderman over Perich, Ayers and Keys. 

As for Perich, he just really pops as a potential 30-plus homer hitter in a way that Keys didn't really for me when I watch them. Perich can take it out from pole to pole in any park, and while he's too old for Double-A, his contact/swing decision stats have been quite good for someone with this much game power. I expect Texas to bump him to Triple-A soon and I would be surprised if he runs into much trouble at that level. I'm happy to continue being the low man on Ayers, who is a catcher and is a full year older than Perich.

Hornsby1: Just curious as to why you seem to be much higher on Austin Overn (TB) than the rest of the industry that I've seen?

The potential for 50 steals from a player who could also hit double-digit homers. It's not a high percentage outcome, but there are very few players in the minors who could go 15/50 in a best-case scenario, and Overn is one of them. He's ranked right by Tony Blanco (PIT), who has a similarly rare set of tools and a low probability of actualizing them at the highest level, but neither guy has been bad enough for me to give up on them.

Gordy Meyers: Brody Hopkins — the next Jacob Misiorowski once he gets control? Or closer at best, control unlikely to happen?

I don't think there's a next Misiorowski. Hopkins has walked three or more batters in 16 of his 19 appearances, and he has walked five or more batters in eight of his 19 appearances. It's a testament to how good Hopkins still looks at his best that he remains this high, but at this point I'd say there's less than a 50 percent chance he makes it as a starter.

Dan Dominguez: Curious of your thoughts on Josiah Ragsdale (MIL) and Ricki Moneys (MIL). You have them higher than anyone I've seen and I love it.

I may have ranked Ragsdale a little too high, but love what he's doing in every aspect of the game. His groundball rate gets better at every stop (28.6 percent at Double-A) and his control of the strike zone hasn't gotten any worse as he's been pushed. Ragsdale also has 28 steals on 30 attempts to go with a .207 ISO. There's a lot to like.

Moneys grades out better than most DSL hitters for present power, and he's been better than most of the power hitters as a pure hitter. I can see a case for preferring Leanders Matos (MIL) to Moneys, but the Brewers 2026 J-15 class is certainly shaping up to be a monster.

OA Rookie: How do you weigh pedigree versus current performance versus tools to rank DSL prospects at this stage? And what do you see in Albert Fermin (HOU), Ricki Moneys (MIL), Leanders Matos (MIL), Enrique Oropeza (CHC), and Ricardo De La Paz (SD)?


I don't care too much about pedigree with the J-15 guys once we've got enough of a sample from games to start judging them on what they've done on the field. Fermin has a very projectable power hitter's frame and is showcasing an excellent hit tool early on. Matos has been the best statistical performer of the bunch but has the least projectable frame at 5-foot-10, 175 pounds. Oropeza, like Moneys, is ranked for his power, but he comes with more hit tool concerns. De La Paz has a huge frame and has been extremely passive so far in the DSL, so he's much more in the wait-and-see camp.

Gordy Meyers: Is Johenssy Colome (ATH) hurt? 

He was hurt but has been playing for a couple weeks now.

AW: Why the double down arrows for Francisco Renteria (PHI)?

I probably lowered Renteria a little too much. He's hitting the ball on the ground too much and not making as much contact as I'd like to see, but he's also running more than I would have expected.

Gordy Meyers: I like that Ethan Holliday (COL) is hanging onto his ranking despite losing his season to injury. What are you hearing or seeing that puts some meat on his short burst of decent stats?

Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) can't stay healthy, but did he show poorly when healthy? Is his drop all health reasons or is his ceiling or floor adjusting, too? I read he'd hit the hardest ball in AAA, just before he got hurt again, took that as a good sign. But no?

Surprised by Kevin Defrank's (MIA) drop being so steep; is he not a special arm to hang onto/dream on? Or is he unlikely to regain his prospect shine?

I wanted to tackle these three questions from the same reader in one answer, since they're all about how injuries can affect a prospect's ranking. In the case of Ethan Holliday, it's a one-off injury that shouldn't affect his performance when he returns and barely affects his ETA, so he's not going to be affected by it much. Rodriguez has as lengthy of an injury history as any prospect in the top 200, so with him being hurt yet again, that's going to affect his stock. Especially since this was supposed to be his summer to get a look in the majors. Now, Walker Jenkins (MIN) is likely going to get the shot over Rodriguez due to the latter's injury. Defrank is a pitcher with zero stateside experience who we many not see again until 2027 due to an arm injury. Pitching prospects from the DSL almost never amount to anything, so the fact Defrank is still ranked while dealing with an arm injury is about as much benefit of the doubt as I'll give a pitcher in his demographic.

Jared Hyman: How concerned are you with Wyatt Sanford's (PIT) K-rate this year and will we see him again in 26?

I'm pretty concerned, and I'm not at all confident he'll get the Ks under control. However, as a 20-year-old shortstop who can do everything else, I thought he belonged somewhere in the middle of the top 400.

M. Sean the Leprechaun: Why so low on Justin Lebron (CIN)? 202 seems way low...

I'm basically saying I don't think he's going to hit. The Reds clearly have a type, recently grabbing Sammy Stafura, Tyson Lewis, Steele Hall and now Lebron early in the draft — four shortstop with loud physical tools and sketchy hit tools. As exciting as Lebron's power and speed are, his struggles against SEC pitching this year led to me being "out" on him, similarly to Jace LaViolette (CLE) last year.

Jared Hyman: Why are you the low man on Cristian Arguelles (COL)? 

I know he just turned 19, but Arguelles is too old to still be in complex ball, given that he got two years to figure out the Dominican Summer League. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's a league average hitter at Single-A, at which point I'd lower him, so I'm just making him prove it at an age-appropriate level first before fully buying in.

Jared Hyman: Any thoughts on Wilberson De Pena's (NYY) ceiling change on the heels of the 180 he's achieved with NYY? 

Given that he's too old for the complex league and this is the only time he's been better than league average, I'm waiting for him to get to Single-A before giving him a chance to really move up the list.

ChzBeef: Bishop Letson (MIL) going from "best non-debuted Brewers pitching prospect" to off the 400 seems like a drastic fall. I agree he hasn't been great this year, but he was still 20 throwing at AA. I guess I'm curious how you decide when to forget prior experience and when to hold on to it

Yeah, fair point about Letson's age/level. I'm much quicker to turn on pitchers that are struggling than hitters, and I'm much quicker to turn on players I didn't fully believe in in the first place, and Letson is someone I've had reliever questions about for a while due to command and durability. Pitching prospects bust so frequently and pop-up so frequently, that I'm almost always looking for reasons not to rank them high versus the opposite, but Letson's still got a high ceiling in a best-case scenario. 

DA CUZ BO: How come Manuel Pena (ARI) didn't make the list? Looks good, hits the ball hard, close proximity... Was he an oversight?

He was not an oversight, and I think I touched on why I didn't include him on the last update in the corresponding mailbag. Pena has a bad approach (swinging over 55 percent of the time this year) and was repeating Double-A, where he was quite a bit better in hitter-friendly Amarillo than away from Amarillo. He also doesn't provide any defensive value as a righty-throwing first baseman. Teams rarely give players like this a fair chance to carve out playing time in the majors. 

Pthomae: Easton Shelton (LAD). Doesn't seem to have anything left to prove at Single-A. When do you see him moving up? He's having a great season this year; power, average and on-base...

He'd get exposed at High-A if he were promoted, as he's striking out 33.4 percent of the time at Single-A as a 20-year-old who turns 21 in September. Shelton was someone I looked at for this update, but I couldn't get past the swing and miss.

Cody Martin: A couple of questions on guys not ranked. Wondering how close and what stopped you from ranking them (I'm a Pittsburgh Yinzer btw as you will see) - Jared Jones 1B (PIT) - Axiel Plaz C (PIT) - Yordany De Los Santos 2B (PIT) - Jaron Elkins OF (LAD)

They were all at least briefly considered. Plaz was the closest to making it, he barely missed. De Los Santos has a 17 percent swinging-strike rate right now and he's not young for the level, but on upside, there's a case for him to have made it. Jones is too old to be striking out as much as he is at High-A. Elkins is deserving, but he's quite old for his level and is the Dodgers' 10th or 11th best outfield prospect, so that didn't help his chances.

Gordy Meyers: I've been holding onto Anthony Nunez (BAL) and Josh Ekness (MIA) thanks to your RP article. Alimber Santa (HOU) has yo-yo'd on & off my roster. I'm also holding Edgardo Henriquez (LAD) and Carlos Lagrange (NYY) for future closer purposes. Would you put Santa above any of these? Care to rank these 5 on only closer-in-waiting appeal?

Santa has fallen in my eyes after his debut. I like Ekness and Lagrange the most of the others you mentioned, although I am using Nunez in one league and think Henriquez is excellent, the Dodgers just aren't an easy team for a reliever prospect to break through for saves.

The Yankees have a couple more of my favorites other than Lagrange, in Yovanny Cruz and Ben Grable. Cruz and/or Grable may have made the list if they were on a team where they had a clear path to saves. Hunter Parks with the Reds has big-time stuff and an easy path to saves, but poor command kept him off the list this time. Alexander Alberto (TB), Franco Aleman (CLE), Alex McFarlane (PHI), Javen Coleman (TOR) and Brock Moore (SEA) are a few more reliever prospects I like that could have made the list if I were leaning more into ranking relievers.