Top 400 Prospect Rankings Update

The Top 400 Prospect Rankings are fully updated, as are the team top 20s and ETAs. Make sure you're fully utilizing the rankings via the My Leagues tool and the FYPD filter at the top, which allows you to exclude or isolate FYPD prospects.

As always, I answered all your questions about the update on Wednesday's Prospect Podcast:

Here's the written version:

TIERS

TIER 1: 1-7 (Jesus Made - Sebastian Walcott)

TIER 2: 8-15 (Kade Anderson - Joshua Baez)

TIER 3: 16-32 (Seth Hernandez - Luis Pena)

TIER 4: 33-47 (Roch Cholowsky - George Lombard)

TIER 5: 48-82 (Nathan Flewelling - Bo Davidson)

TIER 6: 83-122 (AJ Gracia - Roldy Brito)

TIER 7: 123-155 (Angel Nunez - Jaxon Wiggins)

TIER 8: 156-203 (Jaiden Lo Re - Joniel Hernandez)

TIER 9: 204-276 (Cooper Ingle - Patrick Clohisy)

TIER 10: 277-400 (Aaron Walton - Aron Estrada)

David Scott: Theo Gillen (TB) ahead of Josue De Paula (LAD) #Bold

They are in the same tier, but I've got Gillen ahead because I think he'll steal more bases in the majors, he's got a clearer path to playing time in the short term and he's a few months younger. De Paula may also end up at first base and/or designated hitter down the road while Gillen is a valuable outfield defender.

Yoel: How close is Sebastian Walcott (TEX) to being just behind Leo De Vries (ATH) and Jesus Made (MIL)? Also, how did Theo Gillen (TB) climb so much? What are you seeing?

Walcott is in the same tier as Made and De Vries for me and I think he's the best athlete of the three and will have the best body/athleticism 10 years from now as well. He might have been No. 1 overall on this update if he'd been at Triple-A for a couple weeks, as he's clearly too good for Double-A.

With Gillen, he's showing almost everything you'd want to see from a 20-year-old center field prospect (78.3 Contact%, 8.9 SwStr%, 19.6 Chase%, 106.7 mph 90th EV). The one area he needs to improve is his air-pull percentage (26.2%), in order to maximize his raw power, but even as is, he'll hit 20 homers while being a monster in steals, runs and AVG/OBP. 

Jacob White: I implore to explain how Rainiel Rodriguez (STL) is not the No.1 prospect, much less even in the top 3...

I hear you, and I have him in that first tier, so I don't disagree with the argument that Rodriguez could be No. 1. Of the players in the top seven, Rodriguez clearly has the worst physical projection, as he's 5-foot-10, 200 pounds and doesn't turn 20 until January. He's also clearly got the worst position of the seven for a random dynasty team, and while he may run well for a catcher, he's the least likely of the top seven to be a five category force. That said, he's also clearly been the most impressive pure hitter of the top seven this year when factoring in age/level. Whether you agree with Rodruiguez being sixth or not, if you've been following me for a while, you should at least have Rodriguez on some dynasty teams, as I've had him in my top 16 for a year now.

Bozzball: What's the likelihood Rainiel Rodriguez (STL) gets moved off of catcher? If so, what's his primary position? And if the Cards move him from behind the plate, does that inflate his value?

I think it's going to be a lot like Ivan Herrera, where he catches a bit his first few years and eventually gets phased into a first base/designated hitter role. His value goes up for me if he moves off catcher, even if he's UT-only, because that would lengthen his offensive prime and lead to more plate appearances early on.

Rob McGreary: How did the Tigers not get Mike Sirota (LAD) or Josue De Paula (LAD) in the Tarik Skubal trade?

This is an educated guess, but the Dodgers probably figured the Brewers wouldn't include Logan Henderson, and I think the Tigers were probably among the higher teams on Zyhir Hope (DET) and River Ryan (DET). The Tigers preference for getting a big-league ready SP back and viewing Ryan as such made it so the Dodgers could low-ball the position player portion, assuming the Brewers wouldn't include Henderson. It was poor negotiating/evaluating on the Tigers' part in my opinion, as I'm probably lower on Ryan and Hope than they are, and from a leverage standpoint, they had enough leverage to get Sirota, they just didn't use it or perhaps even preferred Hope to Sirota. 

TorontoStPats: You are higher on Ralphy Velazquez (CLE) than most. What do you see as his ceiling and who might be a comp for him?

Top five fantasy first baseman who is a four-category anchor in fantasy. He's big-league ready and has a clear path to playing time next year. I threw out a Freddie Freeman ceiling comp on him earlier in the year. Since then, I've come down a little on his hit tool upside (Freeman had a borderline 80-grade hit tool at peak), but he's also mastered Triple-A during that time, so his floor has gotten higher as the season has gone on.

Yoel: A catcher close to top 10?! What are you seeing in Ethan Salas (SD) to be so high for you?

Yes, and Salas isn't even the No. 1 ranked catcher, that's Rainiel Rodriguez (STL). He has elite bat-to-ball ability for any minor leaguer (5.4 SwStr%, 87.7 Contact%), let alone a 20-year-old plus defensive catcher at Triple-A. He also has a 112 mph max EV and has attempted 25 steals in 96 games this year. You don't have to squint to see a 25-homer/15-steal who's among the best at his position in AVG/OBP and among the positional leaders in plate appearances. It probably won't happen right away against big-league pitching, but he should have an 8-10 year run as a top 10 fantasy catcher and should finish in the top five a few times.

Boomer: I'm surprised to see Tate Southisene (ATL) so high for fantasy. Looks like he's going to be an excellent player, but how does his bat project? Anyone comparable?

He has been top 20 since the post-draft update. The combination of bat speed and foot speed really stand out to me with Southisene. It's not a perfect comp, but I see shades of Jazz Chisholm with the power/speed/athleticism being tailor-made for fantasy.

Easy E: Curious that you buy Angeibel Gomez (KC) so much more than Francisco Renteria (PHI)...

Gomez has the look of a five-category fantasy superstar who gets taken in the first round every year. Renteria's hit tool isn't in that same class, and even though he has stolen more bases than Gomez this year, I don't think that will be a meaningful edge going forward.

Nevsim: Caleb Bonemer (CHW) has had a bit of an up and down year, now finding himself inside the top 20. What has he shown more recently that has him double-arrowing up after what has been a more downward trajectory prior to the update? 

He had a strikeout rate around 30 percent for the first half of the year and has had a strikeout rate around 25 percent during the second half. He also had too cartoonish of an air-pull profile for my liking at High-A (54 FB%, 62.2 Pull%). It's impossible to hit for a good average if you're that focused on pulling flyballs, and while he's still an outlier at Double-A (51.6 FB%, 58 Pull%), things are at least trending into a better range. I also like that they're trying him in center field, as that's a nice vote of confidence for his athleticism and instincts, and also shows how much they want to find room for him next year. 

Scott Saracen: Can you explain why you are so high on Jarlin Susana (WSH)? Who is a good comp for him?

The two most obvious rosey comps are Mason Miller and Jacob Misiorowski. He's obviously not going to be either of those players, but that's the type of stuff and velocity Susana has. By far the biggest knock is his injury history, which is not insignificant. However, now that he's back and his stuff is all the way back, he looks like he's a big-league spring training away from being ready to join the big-league rotation. Obviously I'm already playing a part in driving up his price, but I think there will be significant buy-in on Susana this offseason as more people familiarize themselves with his stuff.

Nevsim: What has Eric Hartman (ATL) done or not done that has led to him dropping to and stalling out around the 30 spot, when compared to a guy like Caleb Bonemer (CHW)?

It's a good comp, because they both showed some hit tool issues at High-A, but Bonemer improved after his promotion to Double-A while Hartman kind of stagnated. It's also worth noting that Hartman's HR/FB has been around 6.5 percent at every stop other than High-A this year, where it was 20.5 percent. When a prospect pops up like Hartman, they inevitably face more scrutiny when they show signs of faltering after a promotion. 

BobMay: Can you talk about the big rise for Justin Gonzales (BOS)?

Beerbot: Justin Gonzales (BOS) top 40 baby! Maybe a few words on the big man? Mainly because the power has shown up recently? Lifting the ball??

Yeah, Gonzales has always had high-end raw power (116.2 mph max EV, 107.7 mph 90th EV this year), but groundball issues (57.4% in 2025) were holding him back in the lower levels, particularly given his long-term defensive limitations. This year, however, his air-pull rate is roughly average and it's trending even better than that since his promotion to Double-A. I know Lazaro Montes (SEA) typically gets the baby Yordan Alvarez comps because they're both Cuban, but Gonzales is a better baby Yordan comp because of his advanced hit tool.

Chuck: Hey James, love to see Justin Gonzales (BOS) moved up. Are there any guys that jump out as someone who is one adjustment away from being a significant riser similarly to Gonzalez hitting the ball in the air more?

I'd have Josuar Gonzalez (SF) and Luis Hernandez (SF) a little higher if they hit more flyballs. Kane Kepley (CHC) reminds me a bit of Sam Antonacci, in that he just needs to hit for a little power to be pretty valuable, and Kepley has shown signs of tapping into a bit more as the season has gone on. Guys like Andrew Fischer (MIL), Xavier Neyens (HOU) and Bryce Rainer (DET) would obviously be a massive riser if he significantly cut the Ks. Likewise, Johnny King (TOR), Jonathan Santucci (NYM), Brody Hopkins (TB), Karson Milbrandt (MIA) could see big jumps if they improve their control. 

Hamiltron: Jefferson Rojas (NYM) — he has hit the ground running with the Mets and is close to a 20/20 age-21 Double-A season. I think what he has done is more impressive than Luis Pena (MIL). Downgrade means... you anticipate a position switch?

Yeah, just based on 2026, Rojas is the better prospect than Pena, but I'm pretty sure the Brewers wouldn't have traded Pena for Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor, while the Cubs obviously pulled the trigger on that move with Rojas. There's also typically a natural dip in a prospect's value when they get traded, unless it's a case where a really smart team is buying a guy with almost no pro experience (Mike Sirota, Junior Caminero, Fernando Tatis, Zyhir Hope the first time, etc...). A year or two ago, it seemed Rojas was a no-doubt shortstop. Now it seems like he could handle shortstop while potentially being plus at second base or third base, so his long-term position is TBD and he could have some years with multi-position eligibility. All that said, your question did make me wish I had Pena and Rojas closer than they are on the update. 

J ShipD: George Lombard (NYY) has seemed to draw some pretty significant praise from outlets and his stats don't look that bad. Why the drop for a guy who has come up to the majors and kind of look the part?

Yeah, I've struggled with ranking Lombard over the years, and he's fluctuated in the 30-70 range over the past year. It's tough to not lower a guy slightly when you're benching him in competitive fantasy leagues while he's playing in the majors. I liked what I saw a bit more from Kaelen Culpepper (MIN) and Angel Genao (CLE), but those three are all in the same tier. I said earlier that Southisene's game is tailor-made for fantasy, but I think Lombard might be a better real-life prospect than a fantasy one, at least in batting average leagues, as I think he'll just be solid across the board.

Jared Hyman: Can you talk about structuring buys of ~T10 dynasty assets with all prospects/picks? How you break down the ideas of volume, success probability, and volatility of value of prospects/picks vs ~T10 assets and balancing the trades...

This is a great question. There's a guy in one of my most competitive leagues who took on an orphan team with Shohei Ohtani and he basically hasn't been able to get an offer he deems fair, because any win-now team would have to give away too much current talent in the deal for it to make sense. Generally, I don't think it's possible to make a fair offer for a top 10 dynasty asset including just prospects/picks unless one of the prospects is a true blue chipper like Konnor Griffin last year. If I have a top 10 dynasty asset, I'm not trading them for a prospect package, even if it's headlined by Jesus Made. There have been No. 1 overall prospects like Griffin who could headline those packages, but I don't think any of the current prospects are of that caliber.

Hamiltron: Aiva Arquette (MIA) and Justin Gonzales (BOS) seem to have won you over. Please look into the crystal ball and get me excited about their upside/player comparisons.

I already hopefully got you excited about Gonzales. I wouldn't say Arquette has "won me over", but he's huge, has a lot of power potential (107.1 mph 90th EV, 113.1 mph max EV) and should provide positive defensive value somewhere on the infield. The thing I've been most impressed by from Arquette this season is that he is 17-for-19 on the bases. I had him pegged as more of a three-category shortstop coming into pro ball, but maybe he can chip in double-digit steals early on to go with around 25 homers and an OK AVG/OBP. 

Hsampson: Very interested in what your thoughts are on Caden Bodine (TB). He has breezed through the minors this year, more walks than strikeouts, what's holding him back from going top 50? Lack of power/game power?

It is the lack of raw power that is holding Bodine, but I did immediately regret not having him a bit higher after getting your question. I think he's probably closer to peak Alejandro Kirk or current Gabriel Moreno than a clear top 10 fantasy catcher, but his hit tool is pretty special, so he should get the most out of his fringe-average raw power while being at or near the top of the position in batting average.

Beerbot: Curious about what you think Tony Blanco's (PIT) batting average ceiling could be? 

This is almost too abstract to answer, given that he has never played above High-A and that batting average is the most random of the traditional fantasy stats. My ceiling comp on Blanco is Chris Davis, who had years where he hit .285, .286, .270, .266 and also hit below the Mendoza Line in four full seasons. That's the best way this plays out, where Blanco is a fantasy monster for a few years in his mid-20s but has a short prime. 

Daleteekz: Which prospects outside of the top 100 are you keeping close tabs on with the expectation they could or should be hitting top 10-20 territory this time next year, if their development continues to pan out?

I'm going to exclude the FYPD prospects, as I could just list all the FYPD prospects just outside the top 100, since they're most likely to have a big jump given their lack of pro data. 

Xavier Neyens (HOU), Brailyn Antunez (MIL), Bryce Rainer (DET), Yostin Pena (NYY), Angel Nunez (CIN), Samil Serrano (WSH), Ricki Moneys (MIL), Johenssy Colome (ATH), Emanuel Luna (STL), Francisco Renteria (PHI), Juan Valera (BOS), Nate George (BAL), Joniel Hernandez (SF), Carlos Tejera (PIT)

GordyMeyers: How much does a platoon split matter in your evaluations? I'm noticing Murf Gray's (PIT) numbers v LHP being very low, for example. Even though he's a RHB. Is it assumed he'll get better with the "usual" R on L advantage?

I only care about platoon splits if I think it's going to affect the player's playing time, i.e. result in them getting platooned. Even if players have reverse platoon splits for one year or even multiple years, their big-league team isn't going to treat them like a reverse platoon splits player. If Murf Gray isn't playing against lefties, it'll be because he's not playing at all. You could even argue there's untapped potential with players who have reverse platoon splits, as we can expect them to do better against opposite-handed pitchers the following year.

Luke Anderson: Can you touch on the psychology of roster percentage in dynasty baseball? Do you factor it in when making a decision to keep/cut a prospect? I sometimes have trouble cutting a higher rostered prospect in favor of a prospect that is barely rostered, even if they are ranked higher...

This is another great question. One thing to remember is that there are a lot of dead teams and/or dead leagues that impact roster percentage. Druw Jones (ARI, 30%), Tink Hence (STL, 24%), Tre' Morgan (TB, 22%), Enrique Bradfield (BAL, 21%), Slade Caldwell (ARI, 20%), Shotaro Morii (ATH, 20%) are all rostered in at least 20 percent of Fantrax leagues. They're all free agents in my most competitive first-come-first-served league, as they should be, but their ownership percentages show us how much of a lag there can be. Ideally you can keep a couple roster spots for churning, and I'd always err towards churning injured pitchers or hitters repeating a level than a hitter who is just struggling in their first exposure to a level. Generally, I'd recommend trusting my ranks over ownership percentage, but there are certainly times where I get too low on a prospect relative to consensus where you may want to hold anyway.

Paul Thomae: Chase Harlan (LAD). Last time was double up arrow riser and this time a double arrow down. What happened for the fall?

I think I raised Harlan too high on the last update and lowered him too much on this update, he should be just inside the top 100. Having him spend 57 games at Single-A was such an easy assignment for Harlan, given his age and time spent at that level last year, so High-A was always going to be where he had the most room to move up or down. He'll face a high offensive bar of entry given he is a righty corner bat, but he still hits the ball very hard for someone without obvious approach issues.

Beerbot: Are we done with Brody Hopkins (TB)? Is he a bullpen arm now? I see he's only been throwing one inning per outing these days...

This is basically as low as I was willing to rank a healthy Hopkins. I highly doubt they will pull the plug on him as a long-term starter, but it made sense to move him to the bullpen at this point in the season in case he looks like a potential playoff weapon.

OA Rookie: What has you excited enough about Samil Serrano (WSH) to place him above some of the buzziest DSL names like Leanders Matos (MIL) and Ricki Moneys (MIL)?

He's kind of the perfect blend of Matos and Moneys. Moneys is the best power hitter of the trio based on hard-hit data, with Serrano just behind, and Matos has the best hit tool of the trio, with Serrano just behind. 

GordyMeyers: Francisco Renteria (PHI) gets DSL MVP but you have Johenssy Colome (ATH) ranked a bit higher. I see their stats, and I understand Colome got a late start due to injury (half as many AB as Renteria) — but you're probably not discerning by stats, more by tools. What do you like about each of them?

I just think Colome has a higher ceiling when factoring in their tiny DSL samples and the pre-signing buzz from scouts. Colome hits the ball just a little harder while making a little more contact with slightly better swing decisions. It's really close. 

Da Cuz Bo!: Ryan Cesarini (CLE), could this kid be a superstar? Seems awesome...

I know you're saying that a little tongue-in-cheek, but I wouldn't rank him 176 if I thought he could be a superstar. That said, he's obviously done enough to get ranked and he's showing legitimate power (106.2 mph 90th EV). This is a great part in the show to stress how ridiculous the offense is in the minors right now. Their using a different baseball, the parks are cozy, the air is warm, the pitchers are injured or tired, etc... So there are going to be a decent amount of false positives with the hitters who broke out in the final couple months of the season. Fortunately for Cesarini, he has always show a strong hit tool prior to this power breakout, so he should at least get a shot.

OA Rookie: Reason for the massive drop on Josiah Ragsdale (STL) despite continued success on the surface?

This is another one where I lowered him a little too much. I do think the trade tax applies to Ragsdale moreso than Alexander Frias (STL) just because of Frias' youth and hard-hit data, but Ragsdale deserved to still be in the mid-100s. 

Daleteekz: What is keeping Wehiwa Aloy (BAL) out of the top 200? Dipped earlier in the season and dropped that far. But looks to have turned it back around and is sustaining somewhat. Is this a contact rate issue?

He hits the crap out of the ball and will add defensive value, but he's in this range because of the contact rate (below 70% at Double-A), as you said. Aloy was an SEC shortstop who got over $3 million in last year's draft, so we should expect him to be having success at Double-A this summer.

Paul Thomae: Tai Peete (STL). Kid looks like a young stud in AA! You see him rising the ranks?

He's been on fire since getting to Double-A, but he's also swinging 57.2 percent of the time with a 16.2 percent swinging-strike rate, so he's not exactly having quality at-bats, but he does have big-time physical tools. He will trend up on my next update because I did think he'd struggle a bit in his first taste of Double-A.