Top MLB Betting Picks for August 19: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props
- 2026 Regular-Season Betting Record: 8-9-2 (-4.01 units)
- 2026 Regular-Season Player Props Betting Record: 11-9 (+1.28 units)
It's another Groundhog Day-like season in the NL West, where the Dodgers once again reign supreme and the Rockies are mired in the cellar.
The defending champs and Colorado face off for the 13th time this season in Wednesday night's series finale as Los Angeles goes for its 10th win of 2026 versus the Rockies behind Roki Sasaki.
With the stage set, let's examine a same-game parlay and a player prop for Wednesday night's game:
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MLB Picks for Dodgers at Rockies
- SGP: Dodgers +0.5 and Under 8.5 runs - F5 (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Shohei Ohtani To Record 3+ Total Bases (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
The Dodgers are hefty -200 moneyline favorites for Wednesday's series-closing matchup for several reasons. For starters, there's Los Angeles' dominance over the Rockies this season. Additionally, there's the massive disparity in the two teams' records, as Colorado's 50-76 mark is almost the exact opposite of LA's 76-51 record.
Furthermore, the starting pitcher matchup of Sasaki vs. Kyle Freeland also gives the Dodgers a distinct on-paper advantage. Sasaki hasn't exactly been dominant, but his 4.29 xERA and .319 xwOBA both indicate he hasn't exactly been a pushover. He also has a positive track record against current Rockies hitters limiting them to a collective .192/.250/.231 slash line across 28 career encounters.
Nevertheless, the Coors Field venue certainly doesn't hold promise. Sasaki already comes in experiencing plenty of trouble with the long ball, pitching to a 1.7 HR/9 overall, including 1.3 on the road. Colorado has also unsurprisingly enjoyed plenty of success against right-handers at home, posting a .284 average, .783 OPS and .336 wOBA in that split across 354 plate appearances since the All-Star break.
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What's more, Sasaki's one career start at Coors to date, which took place April 19, did not exactly go smoothly – he pitched to a .368 BAA and 1.033 OPS in that 4.2-inning outing. Another foreboding sign for Sasaki that can be found in his metrics is the fact hitters are consistently squaring up against him, as evidenced by the 10.2 percent barrel rate and 44.4 percent hard-hit rate he's surrendered.
However, Sasaki's vulnerabilities pale in comparison to Freeland's, who's sporting a 4-10 record, 6.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 1.6 HR/9 across his 22 starts. The veteran left-hander is allowing a co-career-high 10.6 percent barrel rate and .283 xBA as well, and he's been lit up over his long career by current Dodgers bats.
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Los Angeles bats have mustered a collective .306 average and .890 OPS across a massive sample of 266 plate appearances against Freeland, a sample where he's also yielded 33 extra-base hits (19 doubles, 14 home runs). Then there's the matter of the Dodgers' track record against left-handed pitching on the road in the last two months, a split in which they've posted a .287 average, .344 wOBA and .795 OPS over that span.
The Rockies are tied for the most runs per first five innings per home game allowed (3.5) and have scored the third most (3.1) in that split, while the Dodgers are averaging the second-most runs per first five per road contest (3.0). Freeland has also pitched to opponent averages of .271 to .362 in the first four innings of games this season, while Sasaki is surrendering a .281 average with runners in scoring position and 19 of the 21 homers hit off him have come in the first five frames of games.
As such, our same-game parlay banks on some offense being generated from both sides in the first five innings and the Dodgers being no worse than tied at that point. Then, considering Shohei Ohtani has a .948 OPS for the season and has tormented Freeland to the tune of a .563 average and 1.799 OPS across 17 career encounters – not to mention the fact he's averaging 3.1 total bases per contest in the last nine games – we'll go with his 3+ total bases prop.
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Dodgers +0.5 and Under 8.5 runs - F5 (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Shohei Ohtani To Record 3+ Total Bases (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
