Top MLB Betting Picks for August 5: Same-Game Parlays and Props
- 2026 Regular-Season Betting Record: 7-9-1 (-4.92 units)
- 2026 Regular-Season Player Props Betting Record: 10-8 (+1.33 units)
It's been a disappointing season to varying degree for both the Twins and Royals, but Kansas City has gotten the best of Minnesota more often than not head-to-head by taking seven of the first 11 games between the teams.
The pitching matchup for Wednesday night's middle contest of a three-game set features a pair starting pitchers that have had their share of struggles this season, and as such we have the second-highest projected run total of the night.
With the stage set, let's examine a same-game parlay and a player prop for Wednesday's game:
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MLB Picks for Twins at Royals
- SGP: Royals +1.5 and Under 5.5 runs - F5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Michael Massey 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
The Twins are actually on pace to notably improve on last season's 70-92 mark, and at 56-58 but just four games back of the White Sox in the AL Central, Minnesota is still trying to claw its way to the postseason.
One of the trades they made at the deadline that they hope will advance that quest is the one with the Orioles for Wednesday's starter, Dean Kremer. The right-hander boasts double-digit wins in two of the last three seasons prior to 2026, but his 1-4 mark, 6.50 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 3.0 HR/9 speak to how much of a slog the current season has been thus far.
As the latter metric suggests, Kremer's primary issue has been keeping the ball in the park, as he's actually allowed a respectable 38 hits over 36 innings and also has an impressive 9.5 K/9. His xERA of 4.94 is also markedly better than his aforementioned 6.50 base figure, and even his 34.6 percent hard-hit rate surrendered is the lowest of his career.
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Kremer has had some trouble with current Royals hitters, however, allowing a collective .288 average and .801 OPS in 56 career encounters. That includes Bobby Witt, who's just returned from the injured list and has tagged Kremer for a .286 average and .833 OPS in 15 career plate appearances against him. The Royals have been respectable against righties at home as well over the last month-plus despite their overall struggles, mustering a .264 average, .734 OPS and .322 wOBA in that split since July 1.
On the other side, southpaw Noah Cameron will toe the rubber for the hosts, and young lefty's body of work this season parallels the theme of the team's failure to meet expectations after going 82-80 in 2025. Cameron played a significant part in that success by going 9-7 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.10 WHIP as a rookie, but coming into Wednesday, he's sitting on a 5-8 record with a 4.59 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Cameron has also been hit hard at home in a couple of outings recently, allowing a combined 13 runs on 18 hits and five walks across 8.2 innings to the Rays and Padres. That tracks with a longer trend of hitters squaring up more consistently against Cameron this season, as evidenced by the fact he's allowing a barrel rate of 9.1 percent, compared to 6.3 percent as a rookie.
Nevertheless, Cameron may well be figuring things out. He'll come into Wednesday with a streak of two scoreless starts, outings where he's blanked the Tigers and these same Twins over a combined 15 innings on the road while allowing only three hits and ringing up 15 Ks. Minnesota has been relatively innocuous against lefties on the road since July 1 as well, posting a middling .246 average and .314 wOBA while striking out at an elevated 24.7 percent clip.
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What's more, current Twins hitters have struggled against Cameron beyond just that most recent encounter, cobbling together an abysmal .159 average and .389 OPS while striking out 25 times in 92 total plate appearances.
While Kremer's weakness is the long ball, the Royals are somewhat ill-equipped on paper to take full advantage, given they're averaging just over one homer per home game and rank 24th in all of baseball on the season with 115 round-trippers.
As such, we'll look for some runs to be scored in the first five innings but for both Kremer and Cameron to miss their fair share of bats as well, and we'll combine that belief with the Royals being no less than one run back at the end of five innings as our same-game parlay.
Then, with Massey owning a .320 average, .860 OPS, .367 wOBA and tiny 11.7 percent strikeout rate against righties at home – plus a .571 average in seven career encounters with Kremer – and Twins relievers allowing a .278 average and .327 wOBA to lefty bats on the road since July 1, Massey's 2+ hits + runs + RBI is viable as our player prop.
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Wednesday's MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Royals +1.5 and Under 5.5 runs - F5 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Michael Massey 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
