Top MLB Betting Picks for September 9: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props
- 2026 Regular-Season Betting Record: 10-10-2 (-2.96 units)
- 2026 Regular-Season Player Props Betting Record: 11-12 (-1.28 units)
A red-hot Dodgers team that's rattled off six consecutive wins and is on its way to once again clinching the NL West goes for a series sweep at home against the last-place Reds on Wednesday night.
The starting pitching matchup tilts heavily in favor of the hosts, as Yoshinobo Yamamoto aims for his career-best 13th win over the season against the struggling Rhett Lowder.
With the stage set, let's examine a same-game parlay and a player prop for tonight's game:
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MLB Picks for Reds at Dodgers
- SGP: Dodgers -0.5 and Under 7 runs - F5 (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Freddie Freeman Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+120 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
The Dodgers could well be on their way to a three-peat this fall, and fittingly, the highly seasoned squad appears to be sharpening its edge as the postseason draws nearer.
Los Angeles has an excellent on-paper opportunity to continue its impressive stretch of play Wednesday at the expense of Lowder, who'll enter with a 6-9 record, 5.43 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 1.2 HR/9 across 25 appearances (22 starts). The young right-hander, who'd pitched to a brilliant 1.17 ERA during his only prior MLB stint back in 2024, has endured the bulk of his struggles on the road this season, as evidenced by his 6.79 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 4.2 BB/9 over 58.1 innings in that split.
Lowder's advanced metrics paint a similar picture as his crooked surface numbers, as he's allowed an elevated 9.5 percent barrel rate, .268 xBA, .458 xSLG, .347 xwOBA and 5.18 xERA. Given those numbers, it's also unsurprising Lowder has allowed respective .358 and .360 wOBAs on his two most-often-thrown pitches, the sinker and slider, offerings off which 10 of the 16 homers he's conceded have been hit.
Needless to say, Lowder has a tall order in front of him Wednesday in the form of the Dodgers' imposing collection of bats. Los Angeles has a .328 wOBA overall thus far in September, and despite some individual struggles across the lineup, the Dodgers are still averaging the fourth-most runs (4.9) and sixth-most hits (8.6) per game this season. The Blue Crew is also in the top 10 in MLB in per-game averages for home runs (1.21, ninth) and total bases (14.1, fourth), making them an all-around unpleasant matchup.
On the other side, Yamamoto boasts a 12-8 record that's an exact replica of last year's career-best mark, and the right-hander is once again allowing just under one home run per nine innings (0.98) while including groundballs at a 48.2 percent clip. Despite having a little more trouble at home than on the road, Yoshi carries a 9.1 K/9 at Dodger Stadium across 90.2 innings, and prior to allowing four earned runs to the Cardinals last time out, he'd produced seven consecutive quality starts, including six of two earned runs or fewer.
Current Reds hitters own a collective .163 average and .443 OPS in 47 career encounters with Yamamoto, a sample where he's also recorded 18 strikeouts and hasn't allowed anything more serious than a double. Then, Cincinnati comes into the night having generated a bloated 26.5 percent strikeout rate and middling .221 average against right-handed pitching on the road in the last month.
Yamamoto also has a .216 xBA, .271 xwOBA and 3.03 xERA, so there aren't any glaring red flags about his overall success being less than legitimate. Moreover, he's pitched through at least five innings in every start, holding the opposition to averages of .184 or less in the second-fifth innings along the way.
In light of the collective picture painted by both starters' body of work, a same-game parlay that backs the idea of the Dodgers being up by at least one run at the end of five and no more than six total runs being scored is in play at plus money.
Meanwhile, Lowder is also allowing a .296 average, .896 OPS and .390 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the road, while Reds relievers have pitched to a 5.23 ERA against lefty bats on the road in the last month. In turn, Freddie Freeman has a .281 average and .330 wOBA against righties at home, putting his hits + runs + RBI prop in play in a game where Los Angeles has an implied team total of 5.5 runs.
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Dodgers -0.5 and Under 7 runs - F5 (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Freddie Freeman Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+120 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
