Cristian Guzman

A late season shoulder injury caused Guzman's offensive numbers to regress to what were in his final days as a Twin, and his declining defense has the Nationals talking about moving him to second base in 2010 whether Ian Desmond is ready for a big league job or not. Heading into the final year of the extension Jim Bowden gave him in 2008, this appears to be Guzman's last hurrah in Washington, but having written him off before only to watch him revive his career, we're not willing to say he's completely done just yet.

The plate discipline he teased in 2007 regressed to its usual level, but Guzman maintained his batting average above .300 all season and did enough to make the Nationals forget what a disaster his free agent contract had been through his first three seasons with the organization. Signed for two more overpriced years, he's now got two more chances to make the front office regret keeping him around.

After a historically bad 2005 at the plate and a 2006 lost to shoulder surgery, there didn't seem to be many ways left for Guzman to disappoint Nationals fans in '07. He found one, however, tearing out of the gate with career-best numbers before tearing a ligament in his thumb and missing the final three-quarters of the season. Guzman's production was based around plate discipline he'd never shown before, and his .380 OBP would have been 43 points better than his previous career best, so he'll need to show he can do it again before we'll be convinced this is a skill he truly owns.

Sixteen months after signing a four-year contract with the Nationals and turning in one of the ugliest offensive seasons in baseball history, Guzman admitted in spring training that maybe his shoulder wasn't quite right. The result was surgery, and another $4 million down the rabbit hole of Guzman's Washington career. The team is counting on him to finally be healthy in 2007 and a close match to the player they thought they were getting from the Twins, but even if he's in peak physical condition there are still unanswered questions about how well his game will translate to natural grass.

Guzman's first season outside of Minnesota redefined the phrase "unmitigated disaster." He stopped hitting, stopped running, didn't field terribly well and by the end of the season was losing at bats to the likes of Jamey Carroll. He won't be worse in 2006, if only because he won't get anywhere near as many at bats if he continues to post a sub-.600 OPS.

Guzman had one of his best years with the glove in 2004 but his bat continues to be anemic due to his poor command of the strike zone. More importantly for fantasy players his speed has declined as last season he posted his lowest totals in steals and triples since his rookie year. There isn't much hope at this point in his career that he'll take more walks, so don't expect those steal totals to rise and the overall risk to his offense is a further decline. His 2001 All Star season seems a distant memory at this point.

Guzman is a big question mark for fantasy owners in 2004 after a disappointing 2003 campaign. Guzman didn't hit a home run until the last week of the season, and although he led the league in triples, his slugging percentage declined for second consecutive season. His fantasy value is in his stolen bases, but he won't get 20+ steals again unless he improves his ability to take a walk. Guzman improved each of his first three seasons in the majors, and injuries were cited as the reason he took a step back in 2002, but he was healthy last year. As a result, his All-Star 2001 season is starting to look like his ceiling.

Last season was the first that Guzman did not improve his numbers in his young career. He regressed in his plate discipline, drawing only 17 BB in 623 at bats. Nagging knee and shoulder injuries may have been a factor. His low OBP and the increased power in the Twins lineup reduced his steal totals. His batting average and power should rebound, but since the Twins are not forced to generate offense without home runs any longer, the steal totals may not. He'll start everyday at SS.