Randy Wells

A sinkerballer who relies on keeping the ball down and changing speeds, Wells pitched nearly as well last year as he did as a rookie, but without the desirable cosmetic results. Wells' strikeout rate actually went up - to a respectable 6.7 K/9IP, and he did a better job of inducing groundballs (1.53 G/F). Wells' walk and home-run rates rose slightly but not enough by themselves to explain the big jump in ERA and WHIP. It was largely a .324 BABIP (as opposed to .290 in 2009) and a 71.1 percent strand rate (78.7 in 2009) that made the difference. Add in the lack of run support and a poor bullpen, and the result is four fewer wins in five more starts. Wells is a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, but given all the balls in play, and Wrigley's unpredictable winds, his numbers are likely to fluctuate a good deal from year to year. He'll begin the year in the Cubs' rotation.

Wells was one of the lone bright spots for the Cubs last year, exceeding all expectations as a rookie. He kept the ball on the ground and in the park and showed decent command. He's not overpowering, but relies on a sinker and changes speeds. While Wells' cosmetic stats (12 wins, 3.05 ERA) exceeded his peripherals (3.91 FIP), it was still an impressive debut. The question is whether his struggles in September were due to him tiring down the stretch (he threw 191 innings at Triple-A and the majors combined after throwing just 124 innings in 2008), or a case of opposing hitters figuring him out?

Wells pitched serviceably at Triple-A Iowa last year, striking out 102 and walking 34 in 118.2 IP. Wells' overall numbers were hurt by his high hit rate and his propensity to give up the long ball, two traits he also displayed in 2007. Expect Wells to start at Triple-A again in 2009.