Matt Morris

Morris is often described as a “gamer” and a “winner,” but the production just hasn't been there for a few seasons now. While he clearly doesn't have the same stuff he did five years ago, it was revealed that Morris pitched the final two months of last season with fractured ribs, helping to explain his 7.42 September ERA. Still, he entered August with a 4.61 ERA, so it's not like the injury can be blamed for his overall performance. He should enter this season 100 percent and does possess the ability to get his ERA in the low 4s. Since he no longer is an asset in the strikeout department, his fantasy upside is quite limited.

It was a tale of two halves for Morris in 2005. He won 10 games before the break, with a 3.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a 73/16 K/BB ratio. Then he fell apart to the tune of only four wins, a 5.32 ERA, and a 44/21 K/BB ratio. Morris is a fiery competitor, but expect his 2006 numbers to be closer to that second half split, although a move to San Francsico will help his home stats.

Morris has seen his home runs allowed go from 13 to 35 and his ERA has jumped a point and a half in that time. Some starts, he just can't find the plate. In others, like September 3 against the Dodgers, he throws a two-hit shutout and strikes out 11. His inexplicable starts had the Cardinals crossing their fingers in the playoffs. Tony LaRussa had him on a short leash, pulling him after five innings twice and in the fifth in another start. Whether it is health-related or if Morris is tipping his pitches, his career his headed in the wrong direction.

Morris drove his owners nuts last year; Baseball Prospectus actually ranked him as the fourth-flakiest starter in the majors, which doesn't do him justice. Given that, a decline in his strikeout rate, and the shoulder pain he battled, be very cautious about investing heavily in him.

Now, more than three seasons removed from Tommy John surgery, Morris is a pretty safe bet to repeat last season's numbers, which were just a notch off from his breakout campaign of 2001. Morris struck out 171 and walked 64 in 210 1/3 innings while compiling 17 wins and an ERA of 3.42. His 185/54, 22 wins and 3.16 ERA of 2000 were slightly better, but we're talking about the difference of eight hits, 10 walks and four earned runs. Morris, 28, is a horse, and with his arm injuries receding into the distant past, he's easily a top-10, if not top-5, starter in the National League.