Francisco Cordero

Even though Cordero held onto the Reds closer job for all of 2011 and posted a 2.45 ERA, there's danger lurking. His average fastball velocity dropped by 1.5 mph and his strikeout rate dropped to just 5.43 K/9IP. He significantly cut down his walk rate, and that combined with a .218 BABIP kept his ERA artificially low. If you draft him looking for a repeat in his ERA and WHIP, you're in for a rude awakening.

Cordero saved 40 games in 48 attempts in 2010, but his strikeout rate continued to plummet to a new low of 7.31 batters per nine innings. Combine that with a 4.46 walks per nine innings and the presence of Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen, and you have a closer that's a bit at risk of losing his job midway through the season. Working in his favor is manager Dusty Baker, who tends to be more patient with his veterans than other managers. Bid carefully.

Cordero is example No. 72,403 of why you should ignore spring training stats. While working his way back from offseason foot surgery, he got absolutely pounded over the first few weeks of spring training. Fortunately, spring training lasted longer than normal in 2009 thanks to the WBC, and Cordero finished the exhibition season strong, which carried over to his 2009 performance. A heavy workload late (he pitched five days in a row at one point in September) hurt his overall numbers, but he's comfortably in that second-tier of closers again.

Cordero's walk rate nearly doubled and he struck out over two fewer batters per nine innings in his first year with the Reds. He was shut down late in September because of a bone spur in his foot, and after the fact it was revealed that he had been pitching with the condition for much of the season. He's the latest in a long series of examples of how fantasy players have to constantly deal with imperfect information. Assuming he's healthy in 2009, expect a bit of a bounceback.

Cordero had one of the best seasons of his career, saving 44 games with a 2.98 ERA in 63.1 IP for Milwaukee. He looked like the most dominating closer in baseball into early June when he suddenly became much more hittable. Cordero was still an elite relief pitcher, but could never find the same stuff that he had early in the year. The Reds signed him to a four-year, $46 million contract during the offseason to be their closer in 2008, unafraid of his huge home/road split (1.09 ERA in Milwaukee, 6.55 ERA elsewhere in 2007).

Cordero came to the Brewers in 2006 as part of the Carlos Lee trade and did much better than expected. He racked up 16 saves and 1.69 ERA in 26.2 innings pitched. He did walk 16 batters, so that should be of some concern heading into 2007, but he will start the season as the Milwaukee closer and will really need to pitch bad to get moved out of that role. Cordero will be a free agent after the 2007 season, so he might be trade bait in July if the Brewers are out of contention.

Cordero's peripherals last year were nearly identical to his vastly superior 2004 season, with the only real difference being four extra homers allowed. He walks too many to be an elite fantasy closer, but it's hard to find much fault in 40 saves, a 3.00 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and 80 K, which appear to be his norms.

It didn't take Cordero long to get used to closing games, did it? His peripherals have sustained for three years now, and he does an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park with just seven homers allowed over the last three seasons. He's graduated to the class of elite closers.

Cordero took over for Ugie Urbina as Texas' closer following Urbina's trade to Florida. He walks too many to be an elite closer, but that won't stop him from racking up saves. Jeff Zimmerman's healthy return will cloud Cordero's value in 2004, so watch Zimmerman's health reports in March.

Cordero aged more than two years last April when discrepancies were found with his work visa, but pitched well after the Texas Closer Carousel landed on him in mid-June. His control started to come around and he began to dominate hitters. Durability is going to be a concern, as he has had various back and shoulder issues the last two years.