John Sickels' Weekly Column: Prospect Profile: Mike Moustakas

One of the most devastating hitters in the minor leagues this year has been Mike Moustakas of the Kansas City Royals, currently leading the Double-A Texas League in batting average, slugging percentage, home runs, RBI, OPS, and ranking second in OBP. Yet six months ago, many observers were disappointed in him following a mediocre 2009 campaign. How has he turned things around so dramatically? Let's take a look at this intriguing prospect.

BACKGROUND

Mike Moustakas was the second-overall pick in the 2007 draft, out of high school in Chatsworth, California. Extremely well-regarded as a prep, he was drafted ahead of players like Jason Heyward, Rick Porcello, Matt Wieters, and Madison Bumgarner. This was not a budget pick on the part of the Kansas City front office. Few people thought picking Moustakas was strange at the time: he'd set the California high school career record for home runs and was named High School Player of the Year by Baseball America. As a prep, he showed power, plate discipline, and a terrific swing. His 2008 debut in the Midwest League produced a .272/.337/.468 mark, which didn't look that good on the surface but was actually well above average by league standards. However, his 2009 campaign in the Carolina League was less impressive, and he drew some negative reviews from scouts following a so-so campaign in the Arizona Fall League. This year he looks a lot more like the player that excited scouts three years ago.

TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT

Moustakas is a left-handed hitter and a right-handed thrower, born September 11, 1988. Currently listed at 5-foot-11, 230 pounds, Moustakas has seen his weight go up and down. He was overweight at times in high school, but slimmed down to 195 pounds by the time he was drafted. His weight has been creeping up ever since, particularly in his legs and thighs. He looked downright unathletic in the Arizona Fall League, with many scouts worrying that his body was going bad early. However, he came into this spring a bit trimmer, and certainly there's been nothing wrong with his play this year. On defense, Moustakas features a strong throwing arm, but reviews of his range and hand quickness are all over the map: some scouts think he's fine defensively, while others have serious doubts about his range. The stats are pretty solid: more on that below. He lacks speed and is not a stolen base threat.

It's on offense where Moustakas shines the most. He has a quick, simple swing with plenty of bat speed. He'll crush most fastballs and can pull for considerable power, but his plate discipline is often a weakness when he tries too hard to slam homers. He has serious problems with breaking balls last year, but has done a much better job with them this spring, making good adjustments at a higher level of competition. His swing can look rather level to the eye, but he's quite strong and can translate that strength into home runs and doubles.

SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT

Moustakas hit .272/.337/.468 in the Midwest League in 2008, with 22 homers. He was cold in the first half that year, adjusting to the Midwest and a tough home park at Burlington, but hit .321/.392/.557 in the second half with a +16 percent OPS on the season. Last year, he dropped off to .250/.297/.421, a frighteningly low on-base percentage. However, Wilmington is an even harder place to hit than Burlington, and his home/road split was extremely sharp: .208/.269/.381 at home, .292/.337/.473 on the road. 2010 is the first year that Moustakas has played in a hitting-friendly park/league environment, and the results have been excellent: .355/.421/.704.

Although some of this progress is a result of better luck on balls in play, scouts report that Moustakas has made genuine improvement with his plate discipline. The raw numbers certainly look better, but his non-intentional walk rate (14 in 235 plate appearances) is only slightly better than last year. His strikeout rate is down from 17% of plate appearances to 14%. His platoon splits are virtually even. His production has been very consistent: his OPS over 1.000 each month this spring. In contrast to previous seasons, his home park is actually friendly for him: .435/.488/.887 at home, but just .250/.340/.466 on the road. Indeed, his road numbers are quite similar to what he's done in previous seasons, albeit with a higher OBP. His power improvement this year has been excellent: he's doubled his Isolated Power numbers.

Despite mixed reviews from scouts about his glove, his defensive statistics are quite solid. Although his error rate is a bit high, defensive metrics show consistently above average range. Not everyone trusts minor league defensive stats, but the reading is constant year to year. The Royals seem to agree with this: part of the reason they moved Alex Gordon to the outfield was because they trust Moustakas' development as a defender.

FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE

Moustakas is having a remarkable season, very impressive for a 21-year-old in Double-A. I think his power improvement is definitely genuine, but I also think the high batting average this year is due, at least in part, to better luck and a better home park, the exact opposite factors that influenced him last year. He's clearly improved, but I think the raw 2010 numbers overstate it somewhat.

Nevertheless, as a fantasy investment, Moustakas remains quite attractive. The Royals consider him the third sacker of the future, and I can see him developing into a persistent 25-homer, .300 hitter. . .basically what Alex Gordon was supposed to be. Unlike Gordon, Moustakas has a very low strikeout rate, and that combined with strong power potential can make him a special player.