This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
Aroldis Chapman Profile
The Cincinnati Reds have promoted Cuban phenom Aroldis Chapman from Triple-A Louisville, taking a spot in the Reds bullpen for the stretch run and ensuring that Chapman will be eligible for the post-season roster. Chapman was all the rage last winter and in spring training, but some of the publicity buzz about him seemed to die down a bit this summer. That will change quickly since he's now in the majors. Let's take a look and see how Chapman did in his first professional summer.
BACKGROUND
Chapman was expected to be the ace starter for the Cuban National Team for the next decade, but he had other ideas, showing a willingness to defect in 2008 and being left off the Olympic roster as a result. He finally bolted for the West in July 2009, leaving his family (including his girlfriend and baby girl) in Cuba. Declared a free agent, he signed a huge $30.25 million, six-year contract with the Cincinnati Reds in January 2010. Many scouts felt he was the best international free agent pitcher to come around in the last 20 years.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Chapman is listed at 6-4, 185, although with his long arms and legs he looks rather taller than that on the mound. Born September 11, 1987, he has been renowned since his amateur days in Cuba for his remarkable fastball, which runs between 95 and 100 MPH when he's used as a starter. He was clocked at 102 for the Cuban
Aroldis Chapman Profile
The Cincinnati Reds have promoted Cuban phenom Aroldis Chapman from Triple-A Louisville, taking a spot in the Reds bullpen for the stretch run and ensuring that Chapman will be eligible for the post-season roster. Chapman was all the rage last winter and in spring training, but some of the publicity buzz about him seemed to die down a bit this summer. That will change quickly since he's now in the majors. Let's take a look and see how Chapman did in his first professional summer.
BACKGROUND
Chapman was expected to be the ace starter for the Cuban National Team for the next decade, but he had other ideas, showing a willingness to defect in 2008 and being left off the Olympic roster as a result. He finally bolted for the West in July 2009, leaving his family (including his girlfriend and baby girl) in Cuba. Declared a free agent, he signed a huge $30.25 million, six-year contract with the Cincinnati Reds in January 2010. Many scouts felt he was the best international free agent pitcher to come around in the last 20 years.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Chapman is listed at 6-4, 185, although with his long arms and legs he looks rather taller than that on the mound. Born September 11, 1987, he has been renowned since his amateur days in Cuba for his remarkable fastball, which runs between 95 and 100 MPH when he's used as a starter. He was clocked at 102 for the Cuban National Team, and hit a reported 105 MPH when used out of the bullpen in Triple-A last week. The pitch has movement as well as pure velocity, and more than one scout rates it as the best fastball they have ever seen. Chapman's second pitch is a slider, rated as above average, although it isn't as consistently good as the fastball. It can still be overpowering. Chapman has worked on his changeup this year, and while it isn't a terrible pitch, it needs more work to be a consistently effective offering in the majors. Even an average changeup would be a terrific complement to the heater and slider. Chapman's biggest weakness right now remains his control, which is often rather spotty. His stuff is so overpowering that he gets away with mistakes and sloppy command, or at least he did in Triple-A. Aside from some blister problems at mid-season, he's had no injury troubles.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
Chapman began his North American career at Triple-A Louisville this year. Some people (including this writer) felt that was an aggressive posting considering his command issues and need to adjust to North American culture and the English language, but he handled the transition just fine. He got off to an excellent start with a 1.29 ERA in April, but command issues cropped up in May and June, and he posted ERAs over 5.00 both months. Overall as a starter in the first half of the season, he posted a 4.11 ERA with a 76:40 K:BB in 66 innings, with 60 hits allowed. His K:IP ratio was excellent, but the walk rate was simply too high, 100 MPH fastball or not. In July, the Reds moved him to the bullpen, to help keep his innings load from getting excessive and to prepare him for late-season bullpen work in the majors. The results have been excellent: a 2.46 ERA in 30 relief innings, a 49:12 K:BB, and just 17 hits allowed. His command is better in shorter stretches, and he doesn't have to worry so much about the changeup in the bullpen. Chapman is quite tough on lefties as you would expect, holding them to a .195 average this year with a very high strikeout rate. Right-handers are a bit more effective with a .230 average and a higher walk rate, although they don't exactly tear him up, either. Overall, he has a 3.57 ERA with a 125:52 K:BB in 96 innings of work, with just 77 hits allowed. The K:IP and H:IP point to his enormous potential. Considering the circumstances, his statistical performance has been credible.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
Chapman has the physical ability to be a number one starter or an overpowering closer. Despite some command hiccups, his first professional season has been a success; remember that he's learning to adapt to a new culture as well as the game on the field. Although his command problems will be an issue at times, even in the short run he should have major league success in the pen, just due to the quality of his stuff. In the long run, he's still expected to be used as a starting pitcher. While some ups-and-downs should be expected, overall Chapman has a decent shot to live up to his billing.
