This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
Report on Neftali Feliz
Last week we looked at Rangers prospect Derek Holland. We stick with the Texas theme this week and analyze right-hander Neftali Feliz, who emerged this summer as one of the best pitching prospects in the game.
BACKGROUND
The Atlanta Braves signed Neftali Feliz as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2005. He made his North American debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2006, posting a 4.03 ERA but fanning 42 in 29 innings and earning the respect of scouts due to his velocity and projectability. He began 2007 with Danville in the Appalachian League and pitched very well, then was traded to Texas in the Mark Teixeira deal and assigned to Spokane in the Northwest League, where he continued to impress scouts, although his control gave him some trouble. Felix began 2008 in the Midwest League, and was so dominant he was promoted to Double-A in July, skipping the High-A level entirely.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Feliz is a 6-3, 180 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born May 2nd, 1988. An excellent overall athlete, he has terrific arm strength, throwing 94-96 MPH consistently, hitting 97-99 MPH at times. His fastball has good movement, too, and is not a straight pitch. His curveball and changeup were rated as erratic entering 2008, but both of them improved this year and both have the potential to be plus pitches, especially the breaking ball. His mechanics are clean, and scouts like his mound presence: he doesn't wilt under pressure. Feliz's control was an issue in 2006 and 2007, but it took a big step forward this year. It still wobbles on occasion, but given his age and athleticism, scouts anticipate that his command will continue to improve. Double-A hitters were more patient with him and drew more walks, which was to be expected, but they still had a hard time catching up with his plus stuff. The Rangers have been careful with his workload thus far. Although there was talk that Feliz could move to the bullpen last year, he made enough progress with his secondary pitches this season to remain as a rotation candidate and potential ace starter if things continue to mesh for him.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
Feliz record in the low minors was marked by strong K:IP ratios, but high walk rates. He began 2008 with Clinton in the Midwest League, posting a 2.52 ERA and a 106:28 K:BB in 82 innings, with just 55 hits and a .193 average allowed. He gave up just two homers. All of his component marks were above average or excellent. The Rangers took a bit of a risk and moved him directly to Double-A, but his performance remained strong: 2.98 ERA with a 47:23 K:BB ratio in 45 innings with 34 hits and a .217 average allowed, with one homer. His walk rate nearly doubled, but he maintained a strong strikeout ratio and was difficult to hit. One thing that stands out: his GO:AO mark in the Midwest League was 1.64, showing a ground ball tendency, but was 0.73 in the Texas League. More advanced hitters weren't as readily dominated and were able to hit the ball in the air more often, although this did not result in more homers. It will be interesting to see what happens with the GO:AO ratio as his career advances, but overall there are no major problems in the numbers and a lot of things to like. The main need is to keep the walks under control.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
Clearly an elite prospect, Feliz should begin 2009 in Triple-A and has a good chance to contribute at the major league level within a year. Like all young pitchers, he has to prove he can remain healthy as he builds experience, but his combination of power stuff and improving command stands out. If you are willing to invest in young pitching, Feliz should be near the top of your list.
UPCOMING
Next week we will examine Cincinnati Reds prospect Neftali Soto. The following week we will update the Top 100 Prospects list.
Article first appeared 9/17/08
