On Target: More Than Just The Looks

On Target: More Than Just The Looks

This article is part of our On Target series.

During Week 2, there was a total of 1,018 passes thrown. There were 645 receptions made for 7,410 yards and 46 touchdowns. Your job is to get yourself as big a slice of that pie as you can each week. It's my job to tell you exactly where to cut to ensure that your slice is the biggest in your league. Another week's worth of data is in the books and you can see the Targets Percentage Leaderboard (TPL) start to take shape. With each passing week, our list of the top 60 fantasy receivers will help make your decision-making process of who to start and who to sit a whole lot easier.

Before we hit the TPL, it makes sense to look at a weekly targets list before checking in with the aggregate. Quite often you'll have a receiver who a quarterback locks onto for a game, whether it's a comfort factor or just a really favorable match-up. However, that receiver may not normally be a favorite target and while his numbers might look great for the week, the chance of a repeat performance is low. How many times have you seen a guy blow up in one game and then fade into obscurity for the duration of the season? Case in point: Kevin Ogletree. During Week 1 Ogletree saw 11 targets, while this past week he saw just one in a game where Tony Romo threw 11 more passes than the game before. With a weekly targets

During Week 2, there was a total of 1,018 passes thrown. There were 645 receptions made for 7,410 yards and 46 touchdowns. Your job is to get yourself as big a slice of that pie as you can each week. It's my job to tell you exactly where to cut to ensure that your slice is the biggest in your league. Another week's worth of data is in the books and you can see the Targets Percentage Leaderboard (TPL) start to take shape. With each passing week, our list of the top 60 fantasy receivers will help make your decision-making process of who to start and who to sit a whole lot easier.

Before we hit the TPL, it makes sense to look at a weekly targets list before checking in with the aggregate. Quite often you'll have a receiver who a quarterback locks onto for a game, whether it's a comfort factor or just a really favorable match-up. However, that receiver may not normally be a favorite target and while his numbers might look great for the week, the chance of a repeat performance is low. How many times have you seen a guy blow up in one game and then fade into obscurity for the duration of the season? Case in point: Kevin Ogletree. During Week 1 Ogletree saw 11 targets, while this past week he saw just one in a game where Tony Romo threw 11 more passes than the game before. With a weekly targets leaderboard, we will hopefully isolate those types of instances so you don't end up using a guy coming off of a fluke performance.

Top 20 Targets – Week 2

Player NamePosTeamYardsTDPass AttTargetsRecptRZTgtsRZTgt%Catch %Target %
Victor CruzWRNYG179151171115.9%64.7%33.3%
Danny AmendolaWRSTL1601351615212.5%93.8%45.7%
Hakeem NicksWRNYG1991511510213.3%66.7%29.4%
Dennis PittaTEBAL6504215816.7%53.3%35.7%
Dwayne BoweWRKC102242158213.3%53.3%35.7%
Darren SprolesRBNO128049141317.1%92.9%28.6%
Jimmy GrahamTENO71149137215.4%53.8%26.5%
Brandon LloydWRNE6004613817.7%61.5%28.3%
Percy HarvinWRMIN104035131200.0%92.3%37.1%
Brian HartlineWRMIA11103012918.3%75.0%40.0%
Calvin JohnsonWRDET9403212800.0%66.7%37.5%
A.J. GreenWRCIN5813112718.3%58.3%38.7%
Brent CelekTEPHI15703211819.1%72.7%34.4%
Roddy WhiteWRATL102136118218.2%72.7%30.6%
Demaryius ThomasWRDEN78137118218.2%72.7%29.7%
Wes WelkerWRNE9504611500.0%45.5%23.9%
Santonio HolmesWRNYJ2812711319.1%27.3%40.7%
Vincent JacksonWRTB12812810500.0%50.0%35.7%
Antonio BrownWRPIT7903110700.0%70.0%32.3%
Donnie AveryWRIND111031109110.0%90.0%32.3%
Ray RiceRBBAL5304210600.0%60.0%23.8%
Martellus BennettTENYG72151105440.0%50.0%19.6%
Miles AustinWRDAL6314010500.0%50.0%25.0%
Tony GonzalezTEATL70136107110.0%70.0%27.8%
Jason WittenTEDAL58040104110.0%40.0%25.0%

Yes, there are 25 players listed here. The Weekly Targets list will go by the actual number of targets as opposed to target percentage. If the list goes beyond 20 due to a strong pass-happy week, then so be it. Organizing by targets here, in the long run, should make it easier to isolate those fluke performances—especially when a player shows up on this list but is not found on the TPL.

This week, however, we don't seem to have any outliers as everyone here ranks in the top 60 in aggregate target percentage. Ideally that's the way it should be, but more often than not, we'll have a few exceptions to the rule. When there isn't though consider it a plus, because it will help you avoid the temptation to blow your waiver priority/FAAB budget on some flavor of the week that will inevitably leave some putrid taste in your mouth when he pulls an Ogletree the following week.

Targets Percentage Leaderboard

Player NamePosTeamYardsTDPass AttTargetsRecptRZTgtsRZTgt%Catch %Target %
Danny AmendolaWRSTL230160252028.0%80.0%41.7%
Vincent JacksonWRTB175152209210.0%45.0%38.5%
Santonio HolmesWRNYJ9615419715.3%36.8%35.2%
Percy HarvinWRMIN188062211814.8%85.7%33.9%
A.J. GreenWRCIN128168231228.7%52.2%33.8%
Victor CruzWRNYG2371832817310.7%60.7%33.7%
Reggie WayneWRIND2061762515416.0%60.0%32.9%
Dennis PittaTEBAL1381742413416.7%54.2%32.4%
Brandon MarshallWRCHI1431622011210.0%55.0%32.3%
Brian HartlineWRMIA1610662012315.0%60.0%30.3%
Steve JohnsonWRBUF111251156213.3%40.0%29.4%
Demaryius ThomasWRDEN1882631813211.1%72.2%28.6%
Roddy WhiteWRATL1891671914526.3%73.7%28.4%
Steve SmithWRCAR2100531510213.3%66.7%28.3%
Michael CrabtreeWRSF143057161300.0%81.3%28.1%
Dwayne BoweWRKC155275211129.5%52.4%28.0%
Brandon LloydWRNE129077211314.8%61.9%27.3%
Darren McFaddenRBOAK105094251514.0%60.0%26.6%
Sidney RiceWRSEA69154147642.9%50.0%25.9%
Owen DanielsTEHOU134066171015.9%58.8%25.8%
Larry FitzgeraldWRARI67063165318.8%31.3%25.4%
Antonio BrownWRPIT153071181100.0%61.1%25.4%
Hakeem NicksWRNYG237183211429.5%66.7%25.3%
Laurent RobinsonWRJAX11506015800.0%53.3%25.0%
Brandon LaFellWRCAR15515313917.7%69.2%24.5%
Julio JonesWRATL1222671610531.3%62.5%23.9%
Tony GonzalezTEATL1232671612212.5%75.0%23.9%
Eric DeckerWRDEN107063159320.0%60.0%23.8%
Calvin JohnsonWRDET205080191415.3%73.7%23.8%
Donnie AveryWRIND1481761812422.2%66.7%23.7%
Jimmy GrahamTENO15621052313521.7%56.5%21.9%
Brent CelekTEPHI2222881912210.5%63.2%21.6%
DeSean JacksonWRPHI191088191100.0%57.9%21.6%
Scott ChandlerTEBUF91251116218.2%54.5%21.6%
Malcom FloydWRSD175165141000.0%71.4%21.5%
Andre JohnsonWRHOU140166141117.1%78.6%21.2%
Vernon DavisTESF11635712818.3%66.7%21.1%
Darren SprolesRBNO16311052218522.7%81.8%21.0%
Mohammed MassaquoiWRCLE13107215800.0%53.3%20.8%
Jermichael FinleyTEGB73177161116.3%68.8%20.8%
Jordy NelsonWRGB148077161100.0%68.8%20.8%
Wes WelkerWRNE10907716816.3%50.0%20.8%
Todd HeapTEARI94063138430.8%61.5%20.6%
Miles AustinWRDAL13626914900.0%64.3%20.3%
Dexter McClusterWRKC1140751510213.3%66.7%20.0%
Davone BessWRMIA88066138215.4%61.5%19.7%
Donald JonesWRBUF40151106110.0%60.0%19.6%
Rob GronkowskiTENE1352771512320.0%80.0%19.5%
Kyle RudolphTEMIN10216212818.3%66.7%19.4%
Martellus BennettTENYG112283169531.3%56.3%19.3%
Kendall WrightWRTEN61173147214.3%50.0%19.2%
Jermaine GreshamTECIN67068137323.1%53.8%19.1%
Ray RiceRBBAL78074149214.3%64.3%18.9%
Greg OlsenTECAR6905310700.0%70.0%18.9%
Jason WittenTEDAL6806913600.0%46.2%18.8%
Coby FleenerTEIND98076148321.4%57.1%18.4%
Michael JenkinsWRMIN8806211800.0%72.7%17.7%
Brandon PettigrewTEDET95180148321.4%57.1%17.5%
Dez BryantWRDAL10206912700.0%58.3%17.4%
Jeremy MaclinWRPHI119288158320.0%53.3%17.0%

It looks like Sam Bradford is happy to have his favorite target back this season as Danny Amendola tops the leaderboard with an impressive 41.7 percent target rate, making him an early-season monster in PPR leagues. After missing all but one game last season, the connection that the two made during 2011 training camp looks to be equally strong this year. Amendola may not get the red zone looks, but Bradford seeks him out often enough that the big-handed diminutive wideout will continue to rack up some serious yardage which will compensate for the potentially low touchdown total. As the season progresses and Bradford leans on him more, the touchdowns should eventually come, but once the Rams are deep in the red zone, it becomes easier for defenses to key in on Amendola as they know where Bradford is looking.

While Santonio Holmes may have gotten his wish and is now the most targeted player on the Jets, his overall value could take a hit as the season progresses. His target percentage should remain solid, but he is going to be the victim of a low catch percentage due to potential accuracy issues by Mark Sanchez and, eventually, Tim Tebow.

Seventeen tight ends on this list is probably the best way to illustrate the changes that this position has gone through over the last few seasons. Not only is it no longer a throw-away position during drafts, but it is also now suddenly becoming a lot deeper than in previous years. You'll also notice that many of them are also hot Red Zone Targets. Martellus Bennett, Dennis Pitta and Todd Heap have all seen a number of looks inside the 20 over the last two weeks.

Granted, it's just two weeks in, but there is definitely some surprise seeing Demaryius Thomas ranking above Eric Decker in target percentage. Conventional wisdom during the preseason had Decker as the possession receiver and most reliable target for Peyton Manning. However, Thomas seems to have built a strong enough rapport to get a majority of the looks.

Welcome back, Dwayne Bowe. We knew it was just a matter of time before Matt Cassel remembered that you were the go-to guy in Kansas City. Dexter McCluster should have his moments, but the bulk of the targets should head Bowe's way.

Darren McFadden, Ray Rice and Darren Sproles should be paying strong dividends throughout the year as the top pass-catching running backs in the game. Sproles is almost exclusively a pass-catcher in New Orleans but McFadden and Rice should blow up even more as they will hopefully be receiving 15 to 20 rushing attempts per game on top of their receiving work.

With another two red zone targets this week, Sidney Rice's value should continue to climb. He may not rack up the yardage, but if he remains Russell Wilson's top choice when the Seahawks get inside the 20-yard line, the points will soon follow.

Reggie Wayne may be Andrew Luck's favorite, but Donnie Avery is seeing a substantial percentage of the targets and just as much love inside the red zone. The undersized wide receiver has unbelievable speed, so he should start pulling down some serious yardage as he starts turning 12-yard passes into 40-yard receptions.

For these first few weeks, we should see a fair amount of names moving in and out of the TPL. Eventually and ideally it will stabilize, but for now let's track the movement. Many names that drop off early on due to a slow week, should continue to be monitored as they could be headed back soon enough. Here's a look at some of the notable players who are out but could head back in, and vice versa.

In But Not For Long:Greg Olsen, Kendall Wright, Michael Jenkins

Out But Not Forgotten:Aaron Hernandez (ankle), Andre Roberts, Andrew Hawkins, Antonio Gates (ribs), Greg Jennings (groin), Heath Miller, LeSean McCoy, Marques Colston, Nate Washington
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Have a question or need some advice from Howard Bender? Follow @rotobuzzguy on Twitter, or feel free to e-mail him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Howard Bender
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. For more from him, you can find his personal musings on his blog RotobuzzGuy.com or follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy. For questions, thoughts or comments you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.
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