On Target: More Than Just The Looks

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Updated on December 25, 2012 1:22PM EST

Well, Merry Christmas to all of you taking time away from family and friends to assuage your obsessive/compulsive behavior and catch up on the latest fantasy football information. While most of you have completed your season and are expecting a recap of the information we've learned with respect to targets and fantasy production, you'll have to sit and wait one more week. There are still some out there who play through Week 17 and are in need of our regular programming.

Obviously, though, things are a little different here in the final week of the season. Aside from the rash of injuries we saw, there are plenty of teams that are not likely to play their regular game. Sure, coaches like Marvin Lewis said that he will continue to use his regular starters despite already clinching a playoff spot, but really, how long will they play? The Ravens have locked up the AFC North, so neither team has anything to play for. Maybe the starters will play the first half, but if the scoreboard gets tilted one way or the other, it's easy to see both coaches going with the second string in the second half. As you're setting your lineup, you'll have to keep all of the playoff scenarios in mind.

With that, let's get back to our regular format and see what happened during Week 16 and what we might expect moving forward…

Top Targets from Week 16

Player Name

Pos

Team

Yards

Pass Att

Targets

Recpt

With that, let's get back to our regular format and see what happened during Week 16 and what we might expect moving forward…

Top Targets from Week 16

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	116	0	41	18	10	0	0.0%	55.6%	43.9%
Mike Williams	WR	TB	132	1	54	17	7	2	25.0%	41.2%	31.5%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	225	0	56	16	11	1	20.0%	68.8%	28.6%
Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	108	0	54	15	7	4	50.0%	46.7%	27.8%
Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	102	1	43	14	9	2	40.0%	64.3%	32.6%
Jeremy Maclin	WR	PHI	116	1	48	14	8	2	50.0%	57.1%	29.2%
Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI	68	1	26	14	6	1	50.0%	42.9%	53.8%
Marques Colston	WR	NO	153	0	53	13	10	1	20.0%	76.9%	24.5%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	88	1	41	12	10	1	12.5%	83.3%	29.3%
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	224	2	43	12	9	0	0.0%	75.0%	27.9%
Joique Bell	RB	DET	73	0	56	12	9	0	0.0%	75.0%	21.4%
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	111	0	49	12	8	0	0.0%	66.7%	24.5%
Jason Avant	WR	PHI	70	0	48	12	8	1	25.0%	66.7%	25.0%
Justin Blackmon	WR	JAX	79	1	51	12	7	4	40.0%	58.3%	23.5%
Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	62	0	41	12	6	3	37.5%	50.0%	29.3%
Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	81	1	36	12	5	1	50.0%	41.7%	33.3%
Andre Roberts	WR	ARI	44	0	49	12	5	0	0.0%	41.7%	24.5%
LeSean McCoy	RB	PHI	77	0	48	11	9	0	0.0%	81.8%	22.9%
Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	88	0	53	11	7	0	0.0%	63.6%	20.8%
Julio Jones	WR	ATL	71	1	32	11	7	1	8.3%	63.6%	34.4%
Cecil Shorts	WR	JAX	54	0	51	11	6	1	10.0%	54.5%	21.6%
Torrey Smith	WR	BAL	88	1	36	11	5	3	33.2%	45.5%	30.6%

Given what we've seen all season long, it's somewhat interesting to see almost no outliers here. Maybe we can consider Joique Bell or LeSean McCoy outliers because they don't show up here very often, but we've actually seen both at some point during the season. McCoy, now that he's back on the field after missing four weeks with a concussion, remains a must start given his role in the offense, but Bell is still a sketchy play. The Lions are looking to play spoilers in the final week of the season and will shatter the last remaining hopes of the Bears with a win, but with Chicago ranking third in the league against running backs in the passing game, it doesn't appear as if Bell will play lead spoiler.

Getting back to the Eagles, we've seen Jason Avant here a few times since Nick Foles took over. The two built up a tremendous on-field rapport early in the season during practices, and when Foles took over, it extended into game action. But with Foles dealing with a broken hand and the likelihood of Michael Vick getting the start, it could be slow going for the veteran wideout. Vick will use Jeremy Maclin often and had a decent connection last season with Riley Cooper. Avant should get his share of the targets, but don't expect him to get the same number he's seen lately.

Hard to believe the Falcons will do much to put their players at risk before heading into the playoffs, so this could be another week where we see Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson topping the targets list. We expected VJax to be a major player this year as the Bucs brought him in to rejuvenate the passing game, but his presence has really benefitted Williams as well. While defenses key on Jackson, Williams has been able to break coverage and become a huge offensive threat for the Bucs. Over the last four games, he's seen 43 targets; and while his yardage totals are anything but eye-popping, he does have three touchdowns in that span. Of course, Josh Freeman needs to clean up his act a little, but he's still heaving the rock a ton.

It's nice to see Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts back on the weekly leaderboard. Things have been downright disgusting this year in Arizona this year and Fitz has been mostly a bust, but maybe the switch to Brian Hoyer at quarterback can do something for the final game. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt hasn't decided on a starter yet, but with the epic failure that has been his quarterback position this year, he may as well give Hoyer a shot.

Before we head to the overall list, let's just take a moment to look at the fantasy kick to the groin that Krampus gave you this holiday season during what was, most likely, your most important week of the season. A big rousing "thanks for nothing" to Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Owen Daniels, Aaron Hernandez, T.Y. Hilton, Steve Johnson, Brian Hartline, Mike Wallace, and Danny Amendola. We couldn't have lost it without you.

Target Percentage Leaderboard

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI	1466	11	454	178	113	18	37.5%	63.5%	39.2%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	1324	11	515	162	95	22	34.4%	58.6%	31.5%
Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	1315	5	600	183	102	16	27.1%	55.7%	30.5%
Steve Johnson	WR	BUF	935	6	485	139	73	17	27.9%	52.5%	28.7%
Steve Smith	WR	CAR	1101	4	456	129	70	13	21.7%	54.3%	28.3%
Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	933	7	407	114	77	10	18.9%	67.5%	28.0%
Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	1457	4	518	145	100	7	14.6%	69.0%	28.0%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	1892	5	698	190	117	16	16.7%	61.6%	27.2%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	1260	5	606	163	110	17	20.0%	67.5%	26.9%
Brian Hartline	WR	MIA	1014	1	469	124	69	12	18.5%	55.6%	26.4%
Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	1334	8	531	140	69	20	27.8%	49.3%	26.4%
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	785	4	574	151	69	18	28.6%	45.7%	26.3%
Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	1040	9	527	137	82	19	22.4%	59.9%	26.0%
Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	801	3	460	114	59	4	10.5%	51.8%	24.8%
Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	1312	9	554	133	87	19	22.6%	65.4%	24.0%
Roddy White	WR	ATL	1309	7	571	133	87	18	20.0%	65.4%	23.3%
Jason Witten	TE	DAL	983	2	621	140	103	13	17.6%	73.6%	22.5%
Davone Bess	WR	MIA	778	1	469	105	61	5	7.7%	58.1%	22.4%
Justin Blackmon	WR	JAX	786	4	544	119	58	11	16.4%	48.7%	21.9%
Mike Williams	WR	TB	931	8	531	116	57	16	22.2%	49.1%	21.8%
Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	800	5	456	99	65	13	21.7%	65.7%	21.7%
Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	836	8	549	119	64	17	21.8%	53.8%	21.7%
Julio Jones	WR	ATL	1142	10	571	122	76	19	21.1%	62.3%	21.4%
Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	921	4	527	112	65	9	17.3%	58.0%	21.3%
Sidney Rice	WR	SEA	748	7	386	81	50	13	24.1%	61.7%	21.0%
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	1311	12	621	130	88	14	18.9%	67.7%	20.9%
Eric Decker	WR	DEN	988	11	554	115	78	23	27.4%	67.8%	20.8%
Torrey Smith	WR	BAL	855	8	527	109	49	10	19.2%	45.0%	20.7%
Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	902	4	606	125	73	16	18.8%	58.4%	20.6%
Donnie Avery	WR	IND	781	3	600	123	60	13	22.0%	48.8%	20.5%
Tony Gonzalez	TE	ATL	889	8	571	115	88	16	17.8%	76.5%	20.1%
Randall Cobb	WR	GB	954	8	519	104	80	8	11.9%	76.9%	20.0%
Jeremy Kerley	WR	NYJ	739	2	458	90	53	9	14.1%	58.9%	19.7%
Jeremy Maclin	WR	PHI	835	6	581	113	65	16	25.8%	57.5%	19.4%
Owen Daniels	TE	HOU	689	6	518	100	59	11	22.9%	59.0%	19.3%
Marques Colston	WR	NO	1102	8	632	122	78	20	21.5%	63.9%	19.3%
Cecil Shorts	WR	JAX	979	7	544	105	55	16	23.9%	52.4%	19.3%
Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	586	4	525	101	62	13	22.0%	61.4%	19.2%
Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	473	9	455	87	51	16	28.1%	58.6%	19.1%
Hakeem Nicks	WR	NYG	692	3	527	100	53	17	20.0%	53.0%	19.0%
Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	867	8	632	119	76	15	16.1%	63.9%	18.8%
Andre Roberts	WR	ARI	741	5	574	108	61	7	11.1%	56.5%	18.8%
Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	765	4	549	103	64	5	6.4%	62.1%	18.8%
Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	677	3	455	85	62	5	8.8%	72.9%	18.7%
Miles Austin	WR	DAL	943	6	621	116	66	13	17.6%	56.9%	18.7%
Heath Miller	TE	PIT	816	8	549	101	71	20	25.6%	70.3%	18.4%
Jermaine Gresham	TE	CIN	737	5	515	93	64	13	20.3%	68.8%	18.1%
Denarius Moore	WR	OAK	736	6	601	108	50	15	19.7%	46.3%	18.0%
Danny Amendola	WR	STL	639	3	515	92	59	12	21.8%	64.1%	17.9%
James Jones	WR	GB	722	13	519	91	58	19	28.4%	63.7%	17.5%
Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	669	7	527	92	61	13	25.0%	66.3%	17.5%
Nate Washington	WR	TEN	725	4	525	88	45	7	11.9%	51.1%	16.8%
Josh Gordon	WR	CLE	766	5	534	88	46	11	18.0%	52.3%	16.5%
Golden Tate	WR	SEA	583	7	386	63	42	11	20.4%	66.7%	16.3%
Brandon Myers	TE	OAK	753	4	601	98	75	13	17.1%	76.5%	16.3%
Dexter McCluster	WR	KC	447	1	460	75	51	6	15.8%	68.0%	16.3%
Greg Little	WR	CLE	609	3	534	87	50	7	11.5%	57.5%	16.3%
Kenny Britt	WR	TEN	568	4	525	85	43	11	18.6%	50.6%	16.2%
Martellus Bennett	TE	NYG	611	5	527	85	54	16	18.8%	63.5%	16.1%
Lance Moore	WR	NO	920	6	632	98	61	15	16.1%	62.2%	15.5%

Back in Week 1, we said we expected the cream to rise to the top. In looking at the top 20 here on the TPL, we can definitely agree that it has. With a few minor exceptions like Brian Hartline and Davone Bess, as well as maybe Justin Blackmon, everyone in the top third of this leaderboard is a no-brainer, must-start every-week player. OK, mitigating circumstances with Fitzgerald, but in deeper leagues, despite the QB troubles, he was still giving you a better chance than some of the bottom-feeders you see on your waiver wire. At least with Fitz you knew he was still going to see the targets regardless of who was under center.

Because of that, we're going to stay down in the bottom third and look at some of the new faces that have appeared the last couple of weeks…

Two, count 'em, two Cleveland receivers on the TPL now. Hard to believe, isn't it? We saw Greg Little appear early in the season, and Josh Gordon has been in and out over the last few weeks, but to have them both? It's like a Christmas miracle….for Browns fans, at least. Owners of Trent Richardson can sure tell you why, as the rookie running back has tired the last few weeks. While he was still getting his carries, he was relatively ineffective, causing a greater need for the passing game. With Richardson now dealing with an ankle injury and the Steelers' secondary battered and bruised, you can probably expect the Browns to continue airing it out in the final week.

Lance Moore is another one who has been in and out of the TPL for most of the season. He's had four games this season where he's seen double-digit targets, but for the most part, he sees roughly five or six per game. However, since Jimmy Graham has been dealing with the hand/wrist injury, Moore has been seeing consistent red zone looks and now has four touchdowns in his last six games. The trend should continue into Week 17 as the Saints look to save a little face and at least finish the season with a .500 record.

It didn't take long for Dexter McCluster to find a permanent home on the TPL in the wake of Dwayne Bowe landing on IR. He had been teetering on the fence for a good portion of the year, but has now been the target leader on the Chiefs for a couple weeks. In truth, that doesn't amount to a whole lot given the ineptitude of the Kansas City offense, but if you're looking at several of your starters sitting during the final week, he could make for a passable replacement, especially during garbage time against Denver.

Just Missing the Cut This Week:Josh Morgan (15.4%), Brandon LaFell (15.1%), Chris Givens (15.0%), Andrew Hawkins (15.0%), Brandon Gibson (14.8%)

Week 17 Matchup to Watch: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins – There's no one specific game with bigger playoff implications, and for that reason alone, this figures to be an all-out donnybrook between the two teams. If the Redskins win, they clinch the division and send the Cowboys packing for the year. If Dallas wins, there's a whole mess of things that could happen. Both teams have quality running backs and will likely try to establish the ground game early, but this is going to turn into Tony Romo vs. Robert Griffin III, and the beneficiaries will be the receivers and their fantasy owners. Romo has attempted 40 or more passes in each of his last three games, and the last time he faced the Redskins, he had 62 pass attempts. Dez Bryant has been a beast of late, Miles Austin is a consistent threat and Jason Witten just set the NFL single-season record for most catches by a tight end. Griffin's knee has obviously been a factor the last two weeks, but if you go back to the game against Dallas a few weeks before, you'll see he threw for 304 yards and four touchdowns. The ball will be in his hands this week, which makes Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss and even Josh Morgan, very dangerous.

Potential Week 17 Breakouts:Justin Blackmon, Andrew Hawkins, Delaine Walker
Potential Week 17 Busts:Danny Amendola, Andre Roberts, Brandon Myers

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