Survivor: Week 17 Version

It also looks like there's no especially popular choice this week, so "pot odds" considerations should depend solely on what teams people in your league have available. And given the unpredictable nature of the week, you might be better off ignoring pot odds altogether.

My Picks:

1. San Francisco 49ers - Coming off the blowout loss in Seattle and playing for a possible first-round bye and/or home field advantage in the Wild Card round should, the Niners should roll at home against the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals. Vegas has this at a whopping 93 percent, an almost unheard of number in an NFL game. I'll say it's 91.5, but we're splitting hairs.

2. Denver Broncos - They're in a similar situation to that of the 49ers, playing at home for seeding (and possibly homefield advantage throughout) against a doormat. Vegas has this at 93 percent, and I'll put them at 91.

3. New England Patriots - The Patriots are fighting for a possible first-round bye, and in any event, should handle the Dolphins at home. Unlike the Chiefs and Cardinals, however, the Dolphins are not doormats, and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept this game somewhat close. I give the Patriots an 80 percent chance to win this game.

4. Seattle Seahawks - This is similar to the Patriots' situation in that it's a top team at home playing for possible seeding, but also facing a scrappy division foe. The Seahawks are almost unbeatable at home, but don't forget the Rams beat them in St. Louis and nearly swept a very physical Niners team this year. I give the Rams a 79 percent chance to win this game.

5. Houston Texans - The Colts have nothing to play for here, while the Texans - as bad as they were last week - are playing for the AFC's No. 1 seed. If Andrew Luck sits or plays less than a full game, I might bump them up to No. 3. I give the Texans a 79 percent chance to win this game.

6. New York Giants - It's hard to justify this given how poorly they've played, and Michael Vick will likely be auditioning for his next gig. But the Giants still have an outside chance to make the playoffs, and they'll be under a lot of pressure to play well at home in their finale. I give New York a 73 percent chance to win this game.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers - I'm not sure how seriously they'll take this game now that they've been eliminated from the playoffs, but the Browns might be starting a third string QB (Thaddeus Lewis) of whom most of us have never heard. I give the Steelers a 73 percent chance to win this game.

8. San Diego Chargers - I don't trust them very much, but with Carson Palmer out, the Raiders will be going with Matt Leinart and/or Terrelle Pryor. The Chargers should be able to handle them at home. I give the Chargers a 72 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

Washington Redskins - I know they took care of Dallas on Thanksgiving, but this is a tough game between two roughly equal division rivals fighting for a playoff spot.

Atlanta Falcons - Mike Smith *says* he'll treat it like any other game, but I'm awfully skeptical now that Atlanta has home field wrapped up.

Buffalo Bills - I know the Jets offense is absymal, but the disparity between these teams is negligible.

New Orleans Saints - The Panthers have been unlucky for much of the year and actually defend the pass pretty well. These are equal teams.

Tennessee Titans - One doormat vs. another with nothing for which to play. I'm staying away.

If none of the top-eight teams is available, don't worry too much. As I mentioned, something can always open up later in the week when a team like the Falcons or Ravens announces it's sitting all its starters.