East Coast Offense: Stick to the Facts

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Last week, I wrote about the process of evaluating Gordon's likelihood of playing this year and used a poker analogy to make my point. It looked more bleak than it does now - pending the possibility of his reinstatement due to the NFL modifying its substance-abuse rules - but that only means he had more outs than I realized and those who drafted him had better odds of making their hands. Gordon's improved prospects don't change the point I made - that whatever you deemed his chances to be, your process was sound as long as you assigned him some percentage shot of playing and balanced that against the payoff of his projected production. If you simply punted due to uncertainty and said: "Let someone else draft him," or resigned to draft him so late you were assured not to get him, your process was lacking.

This week, I want to make a related, but different point about where people were getting their information. Much of the mainstream coverage was uninformative and even misleading. Here's a quote from an August 27th column by the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mary Kay Cabot:

Josh Gordon's legal team is currently pursuing all of its legal options in regard to his season-long suspension for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy, a source told cleveland.com Thursday.

However, one league source familiar with such NFL cases said "he has no shot of having the suspension overturned in court. It's over."

The source said Gordon has no case, because the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and the NFLPA will trump any involvement by the courts.

If Gordon's team does decide to pursue legal action, it would most likely seek a temporary restraining order in Cuyahoga Court of Common Pleas that could enable him to continue playing while the case is resolved.

How does that read to you? To me, it sounds like Gordon has virtually no shot at playing this year. There are no quotes from Gordon's legal team or, better yet, an unbiased expert in Ohio labor law. Only a "league source" whom she grants anonymity and whose point of view is the only one cited in the article. We have no idea what his agenda is or whether he has a good grasp of Ohio law and whether it might apply. Moreover, if an anonymous source turns out to be wrong (or lying), there's no accountability. People are a lot less likely to give bad information if their names are attached.

Essentially, Cabot is passing on the NFL's company line, and the message is: "Move on, this is a done deal." How hard would it have been to find an expert in Ohio labor law to go on record and give his opinion of Gordon's chances?

Contrast Cabot's reporting with the work of Sports Illustrated's Michael McCann or Field and Court's Cedric Hopkins which we summarized here. These are lawyers familiar with the issues, researching Ohio law and looking at precedents in order to handicap Gordon's chances. It was fact-based reporting rather than lazy, league-friendly stenography. But because Cabot is the beat reporter for the team's largest local paper, it was her coverage that shaped the mainstream understanding of the issue. So you had the mainstream fantasy audience hearing that the issue was dead, while when we looked closely at the facts it didn't seem dead at all.

That Gordon wasn't suing immediately even though he had what seemed to be a decent case in the Ohio courts while the league was taking away his livelihood during a peak season of his career for doing something that's not even a crime in two states didn't add up. Unless, of course, something else was going on, and that turns out to be the possible changes to the league's drug enforcement policy that could result in Gordon's reinstatement.

I realize it's easy to lose sight of underlying facts when prevailing opinion has already leapt to its own conclusion. Even I was wondering whether Gordon might senselessly give up his case and sit the year out without a fight. But whether we're talking about legal issues, or performance ones, e.g., have the Bills really soured on C.J. Spiller this preseason, you will be better informed and more successful if you look at the facts and interpret them yourself.

Incidentally, if Gordon is reinstated soon, and I win some leagues because of it, I'll have to remember to share some of the proceeds with Cabot - her willingness to pass on NFL-office talking points sure kept his price down.

One final point on Gordon: once mainstream opinion - whether true or false - on a matter has been settled, people feel pressure not to run afoul of it lest they seem naive or unsavvy. Media critic Jay Rosen writes about the "cult of the savvy" in political reporting:

Savviness is that quality of being shrewd, practical, hyper-informed, perceptive, ironic, "with it..".

I think this applies equally to our industry. I'm pretty sure that's why I received a lot of tweets and comments last week from people telling me to "let the Gordon thing go already" and to "admit I was wrong." I must have sounded naive making arguments that Gordon still had outs, and my lack of savviness - of being someone who should know better - elicited some snark.

So the last takeaway from this is it's better to be a naive seeker of facts than a savvy temperature-taker of public opinion. You might know that the stats guys or the scouts or the fantasy experts think Trent Richardson is a bust or that EJ Manuel will never amount to anything and to assert otherwise is to be a fool. But don't take their word for it. Watch games, look at numbers, consider a player's age, team context, health and role and decide for yourself.

All that said, please keep in mind Gordon's reinstatement is not a done deal! The odds look good, but the player reps still have to vote on the NFL's new proposal this week.

How Much Does Week 1 Mean?

I did a two-year study on the relationship between Week 1 results and year-end ranking last year, and the biggest takeaway is that it means less for receivers than other positions. Running backs are mostly about health and opportunity, so whether their Week 1 performance portended strong seasons is largely a matter of the Week 1 stars holding up and keeping their jobs.

Week 1 Observations

• I know the Panthers are a tough matchup, but the odds journeyman Josh McCown would take his small-sample-in-ideal-circumstances Chicago success and transfer it to Tampa always struck me as slim. He has good weapons, but I'd be surprised if that were even an average offensive team.

• Coming off a bad year and a serious injury, Doug Martin had nine carries for nine yards and also hurt his leg. He was an odd case because no one seemed to like him much until Charles Sims got hurt, and the Bucs traded Tim Wright for Logan Mankins. Apparently, neither Mankins (who was sidelined during the game) nor Martin is seriously hurt, and Martin should have a far easier time against the Rams this week. If he doesn't, it'll be hard to spin drafting him as anything but a mistake.

• Lots of people complain about kickers mattering in fantasy, but Matt Bryant surely earned his points Sunday.

• As someone who has multiple shares of Nick Foles, I was second-guessing my judgment in the first half of that home game against the Jaguars. How could I rank a player who could lose his job over a proven star like Tom Brady or Matt Ryan? But Foles finished with 322 yards and two touchdowns. And like last year, the big plays came so easily with players running wide open down the field. That the Eagles could blow things up like that so quickly in one half bodes well going forward. In fact, I feel better about Foles than I did coming into the game. The Eagles also attempt the most deep passes of any team, part of why Foles' 9.1 YPA easily led the league last year.

•Jeremy Maclin was the beneficiary of one of those big plays, and while the Eagles will run a lot and spread the ball around, Maclin will see his share of targets and downfield throws. He also looked looked healthy.

•Rob Gronkowski saw 11 targets, but caught only four, and the Dolphins completely shut down the Patriots in the second half. I wasn't bullish on Gronkowski until later in the summer when reports on his recovery were good. But I'd like to see him make some Travis-Kelce-preseason plays where he proved the ACL wasn't slowing him down at all.

•Knowshon Moreno looked awfully spry in the Chip-Kelly style offense the Dolphins are purportedly running. It looks like we downgraded him too much on account of the move.

• I didn't watch much of the WAS-HOU game, but every time I tuned it, it seemed RGIII was getting drilled. And that was inside the pocket. Just let him play, and if he gets hurt, so be it.

•Alex Smith's performance was one of the more disappointing ones. While he didn't have Dwayne Bowe, and he hasn't played with Travis Kelce for long, it was a home game against an average defense. I also have no idea why the Chiefs didn't involve Jamaal Charles (seven carries/four targets) more. This week, Smith is in Denver, where he'll have to throw from the outset, and he gets Bowe back.

•Brandin Cooks made my list of players to avoid, and I already regret it. I thought his sixth round (in 12-team league) ADP was too much given his short-pass-catching role, but he caught one ball down the field, ran the ball and even scored a short touchdown. I had a chance to grab him yesterday in Round 5 in the 14-team NFFC Classic, but took Trent Richardson instead.

•EJ Manuel has been unfairly maligned for an injury-plagued rookie year that wasn't that terrible, and his weapons, when you include the backs, aren't bad. Jay Cutler is a poor man's Tony Romo – capable of too many untimely mistakes, only with less efficiency.

•Ben Tate couldn't stay healthy in a part-time role, and this year he was expected to take on a full-time workload. Terrance West showed how meaningless preseason is, while Isaiah Crowell looked especially explosive and quick. Should Tate miss time, it looks like West is the main guy, based on his workload against the Steelers (16 carries for West, five for Crowell.) The Steelers run defense looked terrible, though. Brian Hoyer played well enough to keep his job for another couple weeks. And Le'Veon Bell moves awfully well for a back his size. LeGarrette Blount scored the touchdown, but Bell should be valued in the Gio Bernard range at least.

•DeMarco Murray is as good as anyone when he's healthy. Carlos Hyde is better than Frank Gore and should gain market share as the year goes on.

•Julius Thomas might be closer to Jimmy Graham than Rob Gronkowski.

•Montee Ball looked reasonably competent, nothing more. As long as he's healthy and keeps that job, it won't matter.

• The continued miscommunication between Eli Manning and his receivers is fairly shocking. It was a key issue this entire offseason, and despite the Giants installing an entirely different system, it persisted. Part of the problem was inconsistent pass protection - and Victor Cruz dropped as many balls as Demaryius Thomas - but Manning's accuracy and decision making were poor.

•Matthew Stafford played well and looked nimble both in and out of the pocket and during his touchdown run. I'd still like to see him outdoors on the road, but maybe I was wrong about him and the new Joe Lombardi offense. Through one week, my list of five players I will not draft is looking more like "Five players I should have drafted."

•Rashad Jennings ran hard against a tough defense, and it's clear he's the three-down back for now.

•Rueben Randle and Andre Williams were non-factors.

•Stepfan Taylor outplayed Jonathan Dwyer, albeit in a small sample, and with Andre Ellington playing through a foot injury, Taylor - who's a good receiver - is a good add this week.

•Larry Fitzgerald will get his targets, but Michael Floyd has already surpassed him, and I expect that's for good.

• Don't read into Ryan Mathews or Danny Woodhead's struggles - they came against last year's No. 1 ranked run defense. While the Cardinals lost Darnell Dockett, he was actually better against the pass last year, so the run defense could be one to avoid all year.

•Malcom Floyd could be a decent flex-WR while he's healthy, but Keenan Allen had more targets, so I doubt much has changed.

•Antonio Gates is clearly still the No. 1 TE. LaDarius Green could still break out later in the year, but it's not imminent.