The Saber's Edge: Future Closers

In keeper leagues, I like to use the last couple weeks of the season to set up my bullpen for the next year. Even if the saves category in your league is locked up by now, it is time to find good relievers, who have the potential to close, for next season. This week, I am going to look at this subset of pitchers.

First off, I don't typically recommend keeping closers if the numbers of keepers is limited. I would always keep hitters first, then starters, some more hitters and then finally a few relievers. Where the strategy of picking up relievers late in the season is beneficial is in dynasty leagues or where a salary is attached to the pitcher. Go ahead and pick up a few of these relievers dirt cheap now and save some money later if they are positioned to close at the beginning of next season.

When it comes to evaluating relievers, I always start with my favorite pitching stat, K%-BB%. It gives me nearly all of the information I need to make my decision. Can the pitcher strike out a ton of batters? Does the same pitcher limit his walks? If a pitcher can do both of those things, you often have a good pitcher on your hands.

When looking to find a closer (vice just a good reliever), four other items need to be taken into account. The first, which just moves the pitcher's ranking slightly, is groundball rate. It is always nice to have a closer who doesn't allow flyballs which can turn into home runs. The second point to keep in mind is velocity. A pitcher who throws harder will likely get picked over another one who throws softer if everything else is equal. The third item can be a deal breaker...is the pitcher is right-handed? Some teams seem to completely pass over using a left-handed pitcher as a closer. The fourth, which is a deal breaker, can the pitcher can get out hitters from each side of the plate? Tommy Hunter is an example of such a pitcher. Here are his FIP (ERA estimator which includes HR, K, and BB) values versus right-handed and left-handed hitters from the past two seasons:

Season: FIP vs LHH, FIP vs RHH
2013: 5.57, 1.90
2014: 3.57, 2.89

While he struggled more in 2013 against left-handed hitters than in 2014, the difference is probably one reason he is no longer closing.

Here is a look at few non-closers who could be used in that role in 2015, and a few of those who just don't have what it takes to close. Additionally, here is a sortable table to find some additional pitchers in which you can find to target.

Contenders

Wade Davis (8th inning) - Royals

There is a good chance Davis is closing for some team next season which includes the Royals. The Royals can't fiscally afford to keep both Davis and Holland, so one will likely get traded. Davis has been lights out this season. He has given up only two extra-base hits and allowed just five runs to score. With those types of numbers, he will be anchoring some team's bullpen in 2015. The Royals have a $7 million team option on Davis for next season.

Dellin Betances (8th inning) - Yankees

First off, the 26-year-old righty is incredible. Talent isn't the issue keeping him from closing. Opportunity is.

He could be moved to another team. Trading Betances may not be a popular move with Yankee fans, but he is one of their best trade chips (he's very good and cost controlled). He may not be able to bring a starting pitcher back by himself, but he would be a major part of a package trade. The Yankees could then go out and sign a free agent reliever or 10 to fill the void left by Betances.

Additionally, if he is not traded, he could move into the closer role if Robertson falters. Betances could be in position to permanently take over the closer role for years to come.

Ken Giles (8th inning) - Phillies

The 23-year-old righty has been one of the top-five relievers this season based on production. He does everything. The only stat which isn't really elite is his 44% GB%, but it is still above average.

The only thing keeping Giles from being the closer right now is Jonathan Papelbon's 1.61 ERA and $13M dollar contract. Papelbon has pitched pretty well this season to secure his job, but all that could change with an injury or if the Phillies find a team to take Papelbon off their hands.

Brad Boxberger (8th inning) - Rays

The 26-year-old righty has been able to turn around his career by throwing more strikes. His 14% BB% in 2013 was pretty much unplayable. This season, he has almost halved his BB% to 8%. Currently, he is blocked by lefty Jake McGee for the closer role. The Rays have been hesitant to give McGee the closer role in the past and instead decided to use him when ever they felt he was needed. I could see the Rays wanting to go back to where McGee pitches in a more flexible role and someone else, hopefully Boxberger, is the closer.

Aaron Sanchez (8th inning) - Blue Jays

Sanchez was generally a disappointment as he traveled along in the Blue Jays' system. The major issue holding him back was a walk rate which hovered at or over 10% every season. Since moving to the bullpen this season, his BB% has dropped to 4.4%. With the walks under control, everything else points to him being a possible closer. He has a big fastball (97 mph average) and high GB% (66%). The only hiccup I see is if the Jays want to give Sanchez one more shot at the rotation given their needs for starting pitching.

Josh Fields (7th inning) - Astros

I believe Fields would be getting more love if his ERA weren't 4.45. His ERA estimators point to an ERA between 2.00 and 3.00 instead. His path to being a closer is blocked by Chad Qualls (who Houston recently tried to trade) and Tony Sipp (a lefty with similar production to Fields, but he throws softer). Fields has the talent and opportunity which is all a person can ask for.

Pretenders

Nick Vincent - (7th Inning) - Padres

The Padres' current closer is Kevin Quackenbush. It may be a little surprising they haven't gone to Vincent, who has a 2.45 ERA in three major league seasons and has struck out a more than a batter per inning during that time. The problem with Vincent is that he can only get out right-handed hitters. His career FIP against righties is at 1.67. Against lefties, it balloons to 4.06.

Vinnie Pestano (ROOGY) - Angles

At one time, Pestano was supposed to be the savior of the Indians' bullpen when Chris Perez was struggling as the closer. Last season, Pestano fell apart and was sent to the minors and where he also spent part of this season. When he has been in the majors, he has been devastating with the third-highest K%-BB% (min 10 IP). Those numbers point to a possible closer candidate, but like Nick Vincent, he can't get lefties out. Here are his splits this season:

vs RHH: 9.5 K/BB, 0.9 HR/9, vs .259 wOBA
vs LHH 3.0 K/BB, 5.4 HR/9, vs .594 wOBA

The reason for the difference is because he is throwing sidearm right now which makes it extremely tough for righties to make contact, but lefties can barrel up on his pitches.

Yusmeiro Petit (Swingman) - Giants

He can almost be elite if he threw exclusively out of the bullpen (as seen by his perfect game stretch, nine straight innings with no walks or hits). The issue is the Giants would like to transition him to the starting rotation. With his complete game, nine-strikeout performance Tuesday night, he may be in the rotation for the rest of this season. For next season, he may start in the bullpen, but will likely be one of the first pitchers to fill in for an injury or bad production from one of the team's starters.