Collette Calls: Late Bloomer

- Henry Ford's first two automobile companies failed.
- Albert Einstein's parents thought he was mentally retarded at a young age.
- Walt Disney's first cartoon operation went bankrupt.
- Michael Jordan was cut from his freshman basketball team because he lacked skill.
- Multiple publishers rejected J.K. Rowling's manuscript for Harry Potter.
- The American League East champions, the Baltimore Orioles, designated Steve Pearce for assignment.

Back on April 23, Baltimore needed an extra arm for an overworked bullpen and called up T.J. McFarland while cutting loose Pearce. The move exposed Pearce to waivers and was in fact claimed on unconditional release waivers by a team, but instead elected for free agency. His decision was a blessing in disguise for Baltimore, who lost Chris Davis that same day to an oblique injury and thus opened up a roster spot for the free agent Pearce to re-join the team. Since that moment, Pearce has gone on to hit .301/.380/.566 this season with 44 extra-base hits and 48 runs driven in over just 358 plate appearances.

At the time of his initial release, it was tough to fault the decision by Baltimore. Pearce had just turned 31 years old and had previously played for the Pirates, Astros, and Yankees and had accumulated a .238/.318/.377 slash line over 847 plate appearances heading into the 2014 season. He was also a poor defender on the short-side of a platoon situation.

In short, his story is fitting of many before him that were designated for assignment and rarely heard from again. So, how did this guy come out of nowhere to be a fantasy factor in 2014?

Up until this season, this was the skill set Pearce brought to the table:

The sample sizes for most of these metrics were sufficient. It doesn't take much to get to a stabilization for strikeout rates and walk rates, and nor does it need much for some of the power metrics. Pearce was essentially a guy that could hit lefties in spots, but could be overmatched and did not hit the ball far enough when he did elevate it.

Now, let's compare that same table to what he has done in 2014:

On the surface, there is little to support the breakout. His strikeout rate and walk rate are in line with previous seasons, and he is chasing more pitches out of the zone and swinging and missing more often this season than in previous seasons. He is elevating the ball a bit more than he did previously, and now they're clearing the fences they were not clearing in the past.

Before you raise your eyebrows in light of the recent Chris Davis news, understand that Pearce is in a park that plays well to right-handed power. Previously, most of his time was spent in Pittsburgh, which does not play well to right-handed power, and he did not get consistent playing time in New York or Houston.

One area where we can see an improvement from Pearce is that he has stopped being passive at the plate and is attacking the baseball. From 2007 to 2013, Pearce swung at pitches 42% of the time while the league average was 46%. This season, Pearce is swinging at pitches 46% of the time, which is just below the league average of 46.6%. Pearce has matched that improvement with pitches within the strike zone as well.

Z-Swing% measures how frequently batters swing at pitches within the strike zone as it is defined by PITCHf/x. Low rates in Z-Swing% come from batters that struggle with pitch recognition or get caught looking for one pitch and seeing another. Pearce's Z-Swing% was below 60% from 2009-2012, but jumped a bit to 61% in 2013. This season, Pearce is swinging at a career-best 67% of the pitches he sees in the zone and he has punished those pitches this season.

The table below shows how Pearce has done on pitches within the PITCHf/x strike zone in recent seasons:

He hinted at a breakout last season as his numbers took an interesting turn upward when he was used, but this 2014 breakout is still one of the biggest surprises of the 2014 season. A side effect of doing better on pitches in the strike zone is the fact that Pearce is doing this extremely well in hitter's counts this season. When he is ahead in the count, pitchers have to throw him strikes or decide to go to the next guy in the lineup. They continue to challenge him thinking that 2014 is a mirage, and he continues to make them pay for it.

When Pearce has had the advantage in counts in 2014, he has hit an Xbox like .452/.605/.871. Only Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo have higher OPS's in hitters counts than Pearce does this season. The confidence has carried over to how he has hit when down in the count as well. He has 17 of his 45 extra-base hits in pitcher's counts, which is a big improvement over the previous five seasons when he had 20 extra-base hits when down in the count.

The last improvement for Pearce is that he has done a better job of hitting righties this season as he tries to break the shackles of platoon life. Pearce has hit .284/.363/.496 against righties this season in 262 plate appearances with 27 of his 45 extra-base hits coming against righties. Over the previous four seasons, Pearce hit just .209/.292/.307 against righties in 339 plate appearances.

With all of that said, we're still taking about a player having a breakout year at age-31. That puts him at the end of the prime year spectrum and slides him into a phase of his career where bat speed slowly leaks away and old man skills set in. There have been just 138 players age 31 or older that have slugged at least .550 in a season in the history of this great game. Further, 55 players of that age have done it at least twice and most of them would raise a few eyebrows with fans.

Pearce has found his niche and he's done it in a perfect park for his skills. No longer is he an afterthought on draft day, but enjoy 2014 because he is going to be hard-pressed to match even 90% of this production moving forward.