MLB Barometer: Blue Bloods

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Updated on September 23, 2014 2:43PM EST

MLB Barometer - Blue Bloods

The conclusion of the regular season is upon us, and no matter how much we love the game of baseball and enjoy the grind of the fantasy season, there's a part of us that's looking forward to the light at the end of the tunnel. Twenty-six weeks of action is grueling, especially if you have teams in contention and are hanging on to every strike, home run, or in my case, stolen base.

Scott Jenstad and I talk about our end-of-season runs on our best NFBC teams in Monday's podcast. My RotoWire online team has been hanging around the top 10 overall for most of the season and most recently, in the top five. Where this team can most easily gain in the overall standings is in stolen bases, but they are not just hard to come by - they've been completely and utterly elusive. This team is nearly maxed out in BA, HR, RBI and I've run out a fleet of fast-footed folks over the last few weeks - Ben Revere, Erick Aybar, Eric Young Jr., Jose Ramirez, Michael Bourn, Jordan Schafer and as of this week, Jake Marisnick. In week 25, that supposedly speedy group compiled a total of TWO stolen bases in my lineup. I had to sit Dyson since he's been primarily pinch-hitting and lost out on two of his stolen bases last week. I'll likely fall short in my quest for the overall

MLB Barometer - Blue Bloods

One of the lessons that's been reinforced for me this season is how much easier it is to move up in the standings if you have glaring categorical deficiencies. Since I've nearly maxed out average, power (HR/RBI) and pitching ratios and have points to gain in stolen bases and wins, I know exactly which categories to attack and have continued to gain in the standings adding every speedster and two-step starter under the sun. With a well-balanced squad, I'd likely have more difficulty figuring out a focused plan of attack down the stretch if my squad was more well-balanced or deficient in the average categories (BA, ERA and WHIP). It's much easier to crawl your way out of a hole in counting categories (like runs, wins and strikeouts) than those average categories.

At the same time, my squad might be in an even better position had I recognized the glaring weaknesses and adjusted in July by adding a stolen base guy or two via FAAB instead of having to attempt to hammer home specific categories and coming up short in the end. Either way, I'll be conscious of my subconscious attempts to overcompensate at drafts next year by over-drafting speed.

As runs have been down across the league and the availability of sub 3.50 ERA / 1.20 WHIP pitchers available later in drafts continue to increase over the last few years, power has definitely been harder to come by. In fact, the number of MLB players who have hit 30 or more home runs has decreased dramatically - 27 in 2012, 14 in 2013 and only 10 so far in 2014 - still no 40 homer guys, but Nelson Cruz is close (39). Billy Hamilton, Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon will likely be drafted within the first three rounds of drafts next year so we'll have to keep that in consideration when planning out our 2015 draft strategies knowing how important it will be to grab consistent power early.

It's been an incredibly fun baseball season and I've had a blast with the Barometer this year. I wish you all the very best in this final week and hope you do the same for me as I rub my Jordan Schafer bobblehead for good luck and a four stolen base Sunday.

RISERS

Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) - In last Monday night's win over the Rockies, cameras caught a verbal altercation between the Dodgers two star outfielders - apparently, Kemp was giving Puig the business about stopping at second base on an Adrian Gonzalez single. So it goes on a Dodger squad that Mattingly likens to the '72 Oakland A's, known for its clubhouse in-fighting amidst winning on the field. Whatever happened there, it appears a fuse has been lit. Since that game, Puig (.421, 10 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI) and Kemp (.360, 6 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI) have been crushing it. It's perfect timing for a team that's been getting the job done, but doesn't have the feel of a champion (with all due respect to Clayton Kershaw). Kemp has assumed the big brother role with Puig and a little extra fire will push the talented Cuban over time. Kemp appears healthy and in full form as he's crushed 15 homers since the All-Star break. Puig's counting categories have been an overall disappointment given his second-round ADP, but he's maintained a fantastic slash line (.301/.386/.486) and the big season is coming. Kemp has not yet passed his prime as he's still not 30 years old yet and Puig is an attitude adjustment away from fantasy first round worthiness. Hopefully the two sluggers keep this mojo going and can carry the Dodgers' offense in the playoffs.

Jake Marisnick (OF, HOU) - Marisnick has stepped up nicely since nabbing a full-time role with the Astros following a late-July trade with the Marlins. Marisnick has hit safely in nine of his last 11 games, and hit three-run homers in consecutive games over the weekend. Despite his big frame (6'3'', 225), Marisnick has a bit of speed as well - four stolen bases over that 11-game stretch. A bit of across-the-board contribution is just what fantasy owners need in this final week with the likelihood of playoff-bound teams resting their regulars. Marisnick hit well for Triple-A New Orleans over the first half and stole 24 bags there. The former prospect is only 23-years-old and appears to be cementing a role on the 2015 Astros squad - an outfield that's seen its fair share of musical chairs in the outfield.

Wilin Rosario (C, COL) - It only took 24 weeks, but better late than never, huh? Rosario hit .700 last week, scoring eight runs with two homers and nine runs batted in. Rosario has missed his fair share of games, and certainly didn't live up to his 2014 ADP, but his runs and RBI haven't been all that far off-pace and he enters the final week of the season with a BA (.273) near his career average (.275). Rosario is 25-years-old, still in the midst of his prime, hits in a great home park and should be forgiven at draft tables next year. He will likely be available after the first 100 overall picks following names like Devin Mesoraco and Brian McCann, but I'd put my money on him topping the 20 HR mark for the third time in his young career next year. This year's woes quickly become next year's values.

Jacob deGrom (SP, NYM) - What a week it's been for the Mets studly right-hander. DeGrom struck out 23 batters in 13 innings last week including eight to start last Tuesday's game against the Marlins, tying a modern-day record. Unfortunately, the Mets' bullpen couldn't hold the lead for deGrom in that game. The Mets may shut him down for the year, but if he gets to go one more start, it may be another double-digit strikeout effort as the Mets have an interleague matchup with Houston's whiffing Astros. DeGrom makes a fine candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year race and is second behind only speedster Billy Hamilton with his 2.8 wins-above-replacement among rookies. With a starting rotation that will feature deGrom, Zach Wheeler and a hopefully recuperated Matt Harvey, the future looks bright for the Mets this year. Now about that offense...

Danny Salazar (SP, CLE) - Salazar did not live up to his high ADP this year following a strong two-month stretch in his 2013 rookie debut, but has been teasing us lately with his high strikeout totals and intermittent dominant outings. It feels as though Salazar has been unable to harness consistency and seems to either hit big or miss completely from start to start - case in point - a complete game shutout with nine strikeouts in his first September outing followed by a six earned run outing where he was unable to get out of the fourth inning. Salazar was supposed to be the team's ace out of the gate this year, but has since been surpassed by AL Cy Young contender Corey Kluber and most recently Carlos Carrasco. The good news is the walks are down (eight straight outings of 2 BB or less) and his ratios have steadily improved over the course of the season. The arrow is pointing up for the 24-year-old - he'll make for a fine SP3 on your fantasy team's staff in 2015.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Hitters: Brian McCann (C, NYY), Wilmer Flores (3B, NYM), David Freese (3B, LAA), Michael Cuddyer (OF, COL)
Pitchers: Andrew Cashner (SP, SD), Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS), Matt Shoemaker (SP, LAA), Jeff Samardzija (SP, OAK)
Not Falling For It: Chris Coghlan (OF, CHC), Jerome Williams (SP, PHI)

FALLERS

Javier Baez (MI, CHC) - On the north side of Chicago, Theo Epstein is building a monster for years to come, and Baez will play an important role in the Cubbies quest for a World Series over the next decade. Upon call-up, Baez went for a pretty penny in FAAB - everyone wants that shiny new toy even though common sense tells us these young stars need time to develop and that a Mike Trout-like performance is a dime a dozen. Baez is very young and ripe at age 21. He is already talking about shedding some weight for next season. Currently at 220 pounds, Baez came into spring training at 235 and wants to get down to 210. We've all heard about the raw power and have been witnesses to it (nine HR in 46 games), but the whiffs have come far too often (41% strikeout-rate) and a .171 BA in 202 plate appearances have actually been detrimental to fantasy squads. Baez has many good years ahead of him - perhaps All-Star years - but that may not come right away, and the production may not match his draft price in his age-22 sophomore season.

Ben Zobrist (2B/OF, TB) - Zobrist was named the Rays' team MVP over the weekend, but what has Zo really done for roto teams besides offer you multiple positions at which to play him? To be fair, the Rays have been a fairly middling offense as a whole. Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings and Wil Myers have disappointed for various reasons and you know your team can probably use an offseason signing when your offense is carried by 'Little Game' James Loney. Zobrist's 80 runs are run-of-the-mill for a number two hitter and the rest of his offensive categories are some of the lowest Zobrist has had in years. The most glaring decline is the RBI - a paltry 48 this year after 71 and 74 the last two years. Not to mention twice over 90 RBI in the three years prior. Having flexibility to plug in a guy all over your lineup is nice, but if that player is a 33-year-old in decline with subpar numbers, you're losing stats to the field.

Pablo Sandoval (3B, SF) - Sandoval finishes the season with much to be desired yet again. Finishing his sixth full season, Sandoval has failed to live up to the hype of his first full year - career highs in HR (25), RBI (90) and batting average (.330). Contract extension talks with Sandoval broke down early in the season and he will likely be calling a new ballpark home - both the Marlins and Red Sox have expressed interest. Sandoval does have a career .294 average but is hitting .280 this year with very average contributions across standard roto categories (68 R, 16 HR, 69 RBI). A move to an AL team with a nice home park would likely help Sandoval's situation and he is still a top 10 third basemen due to the lack of reliable options at the position.

Ervin Santana (SP, ATL) - Santana came over to the Braves in the offseason and started the year off with his new team in style - his first three starts: 18 IP, 2 ER, 24 K, 2 W. Fantasy owners were excited but it turns out Santana was fool's gold and was maddeningly inconsistent over the course of the season. After a decent April and beginning of May, Santana served up 17 earned runs over a three game stretch. Santana has been a tad better since the All-Star break (4.01 ERA before, 3.70 after), but has been an overall disappointment considering approximately half of his starts took place in pitcher friendly Turner Field (3.75 ERA there). On the plus side, Santana has seen a significant uptick in strikeouts this year - 8.23 K/9 is his best effort since the 2008 season. Santana signed a one-year, $14.1 million dollar deal and would likely see a pay cut if the Braves even want re-sign him.

Huston Street (RP, LAA) - It's tough to find fault in one of baseball's most consistent closers, especially one that has collected 39 saves, but Street has had a couple of hiccups over the last couple weeks and needs to bear down as the Angels head into the playoffs. Street was among the last closers selected in drafts this year along with names like LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Veras, and has paid immense dividends. The ratios (1.41 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) are sterling, but his strikeouts (sub 9.0 K/9) are below average and he's had numerous injuries over his career. There's no doubt the talent is there, but Street may be drafted in the top tier of closers next year because of the team he plays for. Take heed and make sure to have clear separation from Street and the top tier guys who can get you 100+ strikeouts (Kenley Jansen, Greg Holland, Craig Kimbrel). Unfortunately, Street always finds a way to disappoint fantasy owners.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Hitters: Yadier Molina (C, STL), J.J. Hardy (SS, BAL), Jhonny Peralta (SS, STL), Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)
Pitchers: Drew Hutchison (SP, TOR), Trevor Bauer (SP, CLE), Jason Vargas (SP, KC), Fernando Rodney (RP, SEA)
Not Falling For It: Carlos Gomez (OF, MLW), Cody Allen (SP, CLE)