This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
And that's a wrap. It's been great doing my best to bring you a bit of insight and an edge each week. Hopefully, there was a nugget or two the last six months that helped at least one of your fantasy teams, but either way, I greatly appreciate you tuning in as much as your schedules allow. For my last column of this season, I'll take another look ahead - to 2015, where there are a number of players who have breakout potential.
Catcher - Travis d'Arnaud (NYM)
By most any measure, d'Arnaud has been a disappointment this year, batting .241/.303/.412 with 13 home runs in 107 games for the Mets. So why's he on this list? One reason is pedigree, as d'Arnaud is a former top prospect, batting .333/.380/.595 for Triple-A Las Vegas in 2012 before a fractured foot caused him to miss a big chunk of last year. D'Arnaud batted just .217/.292/.354 over the first half of this year, but in September, he's picked things up considerably - .317/.379/.517. He's also striking out in just 12.1 percent of his PA in the second half, and while his walk rate has regressed from 9.5 to 5.8 percent, the more aggressive approach seems to be working. If d'Arnaud can just stay healthy enough to play in 125 games next year, his bat is good enough to hit .280/.345/.480 with 20 home runs. He could even be next year's Devin Mesoraco.
First Base - Eric Hosmer (KC)
Really? This guy again? Sub-standard defense and a .270/.319/.393 slash line leaves Hosmer with a "perfect" 0.0 WAR - the true definition of replacement level. So why am I going back to the well here? Nostalgia? Guilty perhaps, but after Hosmer broke out last year to the tune of .302/.353/.448 in 159 games, I'm not quite ready to toss him aside. Hosmer has hit .294/.360/.500 in September after a .960 OPS in July and a lost August (hand). Hosmer was also hurt by a .218 BABIP in June, and after hovering in the 16-percent range with his line drive rate in the first half of the season, Hosmer is at 20.6 percent in the second half and 23.1 percent this month. There's not enough lift in his swing (51.5 GB%) for me to project 25-30 homers next year, but a strong finish could very well catapult Hosmer into a .300/.360/.450 season with 20 homers next year.
Second Base - Jedd Gyorko (SD)
From 23 homers in a decent rookie season (.249/.301/.444) to .209/.276/.335, Gyorko has been the poster child for the sophomore slump theory. In reality, though, perhaps this wasn't difficult to see coming. As a rookie, Gyorko's 6.3 walk rate and 123:33 K:BB were red flags, and a 15.9 percent HR/FB rate is tough to maintain year over year, probably especially in San Diego. That rate has dropped to 9.6 percent this year, and Gyorko's GB% has increased five percentage points. That's led to the dip in power, while a .255 BABIP is a factor in the batting average decline. Gyorko, though, has shown improvement, batting .264/.345/.410 over the second half after batting a miserable .162 in his first 56 games before getting hurt. I'd say that's a slash (perhaps with a SLG% bump to .430) that we can expect next year, with 25 home runs certainly within sight given his minor league accomplishments.
Shortstop - Xander Bogaerts (BOS)
It was probably asking a bit much for a 21-year-old to step in and be an above average shortstop right away in the pressure cooker that is Boston, so in hindsight, his .237/.297/.362 slash line shouldn't be a huge surprise. He profiles as a power-hitting shortstop with little speed and 20-plus home run power, but we're not quite there yet. In September, Bogaerts has shown a bit more power with four of his 12 homers, and he's batting .308/.317/.508 for the month. One troubling trend is his first/second half BB% splits - 8.2/4.3, but he's striking out a little less and his second-half ISO is 33 points higher than his first-half mark. Bogaerts, though, turns just 22 next week, and it's proven that elite hitters can in fact improve their plate discipline over time. If you're familiar with the term, consider Bogaerts a "post-hype sleeper," that is, a prospect with considerable hype who subsequently had a disappointing debut, but still possesses significant upside.
Third Base - Nolan Arenado (COL)
An illness and broken finger have limited Arenado to just 111 games, but after last year's .267/.301/.405 slash, Arenado has progressed to .287/.328/.500 in 2014. He's shown slight improvements in both his walk and strikeout rates, with the latter clocking in at an impressive 12.4 percent in 467 PA's. Arenado has also shown his usual great glovework, which means that even in the midst of a slump, the leather will give him the security that he'll be in the lineup every day. If it sounds like he's already had his breakout season, I suppose you could make that argument, but given he's still just 23, I think he can kick it to a new level in 2015. Witness a few of his first half/second half splits:
BB% - 3.7/7.2
SLG% - .457/.550
Flyball% - 37.6/46.6
AB/HR - 38.3/16.8
No, he's probably not going to maintain that HR rate over 600 at-bats (that would be 36 HR), but with the second half power surge and the improvement in his walk rate, a .300-30-100 season isn't out of the question as early as next year. I'm very bullish.
Outfield - Oscar Taveras (STL), Wil Myers (TB), Avasail Garcia (CHW)
One scuffling rookie, a very disappointing sophomore and a bit of an enigma. That's Taveras, Myers, and Garcia respectively.
Even with the trade involving Allen Craig heading to Boston, Taveras has still seen his sporadic playing time continue. He's batting .344/.382/.469 this month, but Randal Grichuk sits at .367/.387/.667, so playing time advantage: Grichuk. So what about 2015? The Cardinals are likely to slot in Matt Holliday and John Jay in LF and CF respectively, so barring any trades, that leaves right for the likes of Taveras, Grichuk, and another young prospect, Stephen Piscotty. If Taveras doesn't win the job next spring, he'll likely open in Triple-A so he can play every day, but I think talent wins out in the end and Taveras is the club's Opening Day right fielder. I like that he's making contact (15.7 MLB K%), and given he's a minor league career .320/.376/.516 hitter, we have to think he'll eventually break out. I'm not 100 percent sure it will be in 2015, but I'm probably going to end up owning Taveras in multiple leagues hoping it is.
After bringing home the AL Rookie of the Year award off an 88-game stint in which Myers batted .293/.354/.478, expectations were sky-high for his first full big league season. A three-month DL stint (wrist) and .220/.296/.321 at the plate weren't quite what we had in mind. Part of it is a cratering of his BABIP - .368 to this year's .284, but why the ISO drop from .185 to .101? We can probably chalk up the one HR in his 117 second-half at-bats to a wrist that might not be 100 percent healthy until next year, but even when he was 100 percent in April/May, Myers still hit just .227 with five HR in 198 at-bats. Perhaps Myers, as a highly-touted prospect who failed to live up to expectations, still thinks he's a Kansas City Royal, but we'll give him a mulligan on this one and project a big 2015. Nothing in this year's numbers would support that, but his entire body of work does.
Garcia has missed a good portion of this year with a shoulder injury, but that hasn't prevented him from homering seven times in just 154 at-bats with a .260/.326/.448 slash. The normal sample size caveats apply, but I love the improvement in his walk rate from 3.5% to 8.1 percent year over year, and a 23.8 K% for a 23-year-old power hitter isn't abnormally high. Garcia hit .374 with six home runs in 174 Triple-A at-bats last year, and despite being listed at 6-foot-4, 240, he can at least approach double-digit steals. What he really needs to do is stay healthy and continue to refine his approach at the plate, but he has a lot of upside.
Starting Pitcher - Trevor Bauer (CLE), Nate Karns (TB), Shelby Miller (STL)
Bauer has had some ups and downs this year, but he's finally shown some improvement, enough to make us think that someday soon he has a chance to be a worthwhile No. 3 overall pick, as he was out of UCLA in 2011. Bauer has shown improvement across the board this year, most notably with his control. A 3.5 BB/9 isn't elite by any means, but compared to the 7.8 mark he had in eight big league starts prior to 2014, it's downright Maddux-like. He's also shown more velocity this year and is generating far more swings-and-misses with an improved 8.9-percent SwStr rate. I thought he was older, but at 23, Bauer could make a big leap next year.
Don't pitchers automatically become excellent major league starters upon being traded to the Rays? See: Jake Odorizzi, Chris Archer, Drew Smyly and others. To be fair, each of those guys had upside prior to the deal, but the Rays seem to have few young pitchers fail. Karns has made just two starts for the Rays, but he's missing bats with a 13:4 K:BB in 12 innings while flashing a fastball that averages 93.4 mph and he had a 9.5 K/9 in Triple-A, with double-digit rates in the minors the few years prior. He's not even a lock to open in the 2015 rotation, but he's one to watch in deeper formats.
Miller's final 2014 numbers aren't going to look nearly as good as those he's put up lately, and that could lead to a buying opportunity. He was pulled after just 85 pitches Tuesday, but not before fanning eight in 4.1 innings. Miller entered the game with a 6.0 K/9 to go with a 3.6 BB/9, but in September, that mark sits at 7.7 and with his stuff, I would project in the 7.5 range next year. He's also posted a 2.3 BB/9 in the second half, so if he can maintain some sort of consistency next year, Miller has the upside of a No. 2 starter.
Relief Pitcher - Adam Ottavino (COL)
A lot of candidates for this slot, but let's discuss Ottavino. LaTroy Hawkins managed to keep the closer all year after pretty much everyone expected Rex Brothers to be the guy by now. Hawkins will certainly have his $2.25 million option for 2015 exercised, but with Brothers spoting a 5.76 ERA and 1.85 WHIP, it's likely Ottavino as the early favorite to close next year should Hawkins finally break down or even decided to retire. Ottavino's 3.62 ERA and 9.2 H/9 aren't impressive for a closer, but these numbers are: 9.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 94.3 mph average fastball. Ottavino has also been hurt by a .348 BABIP, so if he can continue missing bats and getting more luck on balls in play, his ERA should plummet. He's a nice speculative pickup in NL-only and deeper mixed keeper leagues.
