Survivor: Backing the Dolphins

This is my favorite kind of slate where you have a heavily used team (the Cowboys) that's not even a double-digit favoite. Here's where you can make a big move. The tough question is what other team to use.

If you've used the Broncos, the biggest favorites left are the Browns and Chiefs at 74 percent. Let's compare them to the Pats.

The odds of a Cowboys win/Browns loss are .82 *.26 = 21.3. A Browns win/Cowboys loss is 13.3 The risk ratio is 21.3/13.3 = 1.6.

But using our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, a Pats loss/Browns win leaves 52 people left. Plus another 10 would be expected to lose on the other teams. That leaves 42. Your equity would go from $10 to $1000/42 = $23.81.

A Browns loss/Pats win would take out 14 people, plus another 10 on other teams, leaving 76. Your equity would be $1000/76 = $13.16. The reward ratio is 23.81/13.16 = 1.81. That's worth the risk - though by only a modest amount.

And if you prefer the Chiefs, who are 17 percent owned, it gets even closer.

The bottom line is we're looking at a judgment call - and I think the Pats and Dolphins are in play too if you're higher on them than Vegas is.

My Picks

1. Miami Dolphins

It might be a little crazy to take Ryan Tannehill on the road, but I think the Dolphins defense is actually good, and Tannehill has played much better of late. The Jaguars had a nice win against the Browns, but they're still terrible against the pass, and the offense is erratic and turnover-prone. I give the Dolphins a 74 percent chance to win this game.

2. Denver Broncos

Most of you have probably used them, but given their low percentage-owned number, they're a good play even against a tough Chargers team. My biggest concerns are the short week (Sunday night to Thursday night) and the Chargers being especially familiar with them. I give the Broncos a 73 percent chance to win this game.

3. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys should crush the Colt McCoy-led Redskins, but in this rivalry sometimes the regular-season performances to date don't matter as much. Plus, of course, they're 48 percent used. I give the Cowboys an 82 percent chance to win this game.

4. New England Patriots (accidentally omitted from the original article, update posted on 10/23)

The Bears are dangerous with their offensive weapons, but the Pats are especially tough at home, had 10 days to prepare for this and should have their way on offense. I give the Patriots a 72 percent chance to win this game.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

I prefer the Chiefs as scrappy underdogs rather than touchdown favorites as their offense relies on dump offs and runs. And while the Rams are nearly a doormat, that Jeff Fisher was willing to fake a punt on 4th-and-3 in his own end last week, makes them more dangerous than the average one. Plus the pass rush showed signs of life last week, too. I give the Chiefs a 72 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

Cleveland Browns - They could crush the Raiders at home, but Oakland hung around against San Diego, New England and Arizona, and I don't trust Cleveland's offense.

Seattle Seahawks - The offensive line is poor, and they're not the same team on the road. If the good Carolina shows up, the Seahawks could be in trouble.

Detroit Lions - Atlanta might be a doormat, but the Lions make too many mistakes, the London venue is a big wild card, and Matt Ryan is better quarterback than Matt Stafford.