East Coast Offense: Cracking the Code

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

When Too Much Knowledge Is Dangerous

I wrote last week about valuing first-hand observations (as opposed to something you've read or of which someone convinced you.) But it isn't always easy to distinguish between the two because so much of what we think is influenced by others' opinions. For example, I might have seen a player rip off an impressive run, but I also read 20 different tweets about it from people whose opinions I respect. How can I separately identify my initial observation about a player after being exposed to so many immediate, educated viewpoints?

One way to make the process easier is to avoid other opinions until after one's decision is made - and I do that when handicapping games against the spread. But for fantasy purposes it's nearly impossible for someone in my job, at least for baseball and football - in order to gather the facts I need and to participate in the conversation, I'm exposed to too many thought-contagions. While I try to beef up my mental immune system, i.e., skepticism, attention to biases, awareness of sample sizes, etc., some invasive ideas inevitably get through. Next thing I know, I'm passing on Arian Foster late in the second round.

This isn't the case with basketball, however. A couple weeks ago, I drafted my NFBKC team (with the help of Kevin Payne who knows the player pool far better than I do.) Because I've done effectively zero preparation, I thought I'd struggle as the draft went further along, but just the opposite happened; I actually felt there were a lot of good choices late. There were so many players I remember being good once before getting hurt or losing minutes, I kept thinking: "Why not Eric Gordon? Why not Anthony Bennett?" Because I was less aware of the obstacles to their being good, I had more license to take them. Lots of players looked good to me, and maybe they wouldn't have had I examined their situations more closely. I could only see the broader outlines of who they were: young former lottery picks who are not presently injured.

When Mike Trout broke out in 2012, I missed the boat entirely because I was too aware of all the players on the Angels blocking him: Vernon Wells, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, Kendrys Morales and Albert Pujols for five spots. There was nowhere for Trout to play. Had I known less about the particulars of the Angels depth chart, I would have drafted Trout more aggressively simply based on talent and pedigree.

The NFL is no different. Consider all the obstacles to Sammy Watkins performing at his current level: EJ Manuel, Mike Williams, a run-heavy scheme with two quality backs, lack of red-zone size, the difficulty for rookie wideouts in making the adjustment to the NFL. But if you knew less, you might have just thought: "Watkins went No. 4 overall, and the Bills will probably try to get him the ball right away."

Maybe this sounds like advocating ignorance, but I'd say there's a level of understanding that's needed and beyond that, it can become a distraction and cause you to lose perspective. If you look at the NFBC and NFFC, most of the industry pros do no better than the amateur players who collectively are less exposed to industry group-think and have a chance to tune it out. In fact, it's been shown regular investors perform just as well as financial experts on their personal investments.

I'd say there are two takeaways to this: (1) Your first-hand observations are valid, and you should trust them. But you have to identify them before they become corrupted/diluted by the opinions of others; and (2) It might be better to grasp how things work generally and have a good overall knowledge than to focus on absorbing every detail of the problem. Inevitably, the more you know, the more information there is to weigh. While the extra knowledge might feel empowering, if it's not properly weighted, it's more likely to distort than clarify.

Cracking the Code

Often the Monday night game is a letdown, and I shut off the TV feeling somewhere along the spectrum of annoyed to enraged. Either the team I backed didn't cover, my fantasy players didn't do what they needed to, the referees botched some critical calls, the guys going against me went off or the announcers were bad and the ads were worse. Usually it's some combination thereof. But after last night's game - despite poor performances in the Stopa $10K League from Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon - I was elated. Not only did the Redskins cover, they won outright, knocking out half of my last remaining survivor pool.

But it was more than that. I saw a tweet earlier in the day saying one of the NFL Network crews cracked up when assessing the Redskins chances to win the game. As soon as I read it an alarm went off in my head. Whenever people - especially clueless ones - mock an idea or feel certain of its opposite, I immediately take that possibility twice as seriously as I had previously. There's something about contempt for plausible but unlikely outcomes that hastens their arrival. It could be because the atmosphere of casual dismissal regarding the Redskins chances was likely to extend to the Cowboys locker room, making them less up for the game. Or it could simply be that I remember upsets more vividly when I hear someone else say with too much certainty they'll never happen. But it almost seems as if the universe is speaking in code.

One other note on that game - and I'm glad the Redskins won, otherwise this would have sent me deep into the rage region: the referees (and Jon Gruden and Mike Tirico) missed a blatant hold by the Cowboys in the end zone during the closing minute of regulation. Here's a still of the play:

As you know, a hold in the end zone is a safety, and after a Cowboys punt, it would have ended the game. I get that sometimes calls are missed, or that in game-deciding situations, the refs should especially err on the side of letting things play out. But if this isn't a hold, there's no such thing as holding, and they shouldn't even bother with the rule. And it was bizarre for Gruden and Tirico not even to address it on the telecast.

Week 8 Observations

• It was funny to see two former Browns quarterbacks squaring off down the stretch Monday night. Brandon Weeden actually played well for a drive.

• If Tony Romo's injury turns out to be more significant than the Cowboys thought (it's a good sign he was able to return to get pounded some more), maybe Dallas will have to start leaning on DeMarco Murray. (About half the Twitter responders figured out this was a joke.)

• It was odd seeing the Cowboys with their veteran QB and all-world offensive line (and three backs capable of catching screen passes) unable to adjust to the blitz.

•Colt McCoy looked like a high-school QB early on with an audible to a handoff where the running back wasn't even there and a terrible interception in the end zone. He also threw some passes low, short and behind receivers. But by the second half, he played more competently, not that he's a threat to RGIII's job.

• How good would the Eagles be had they kept DeSean Jackson instead of extending Riley Cooper?

• The Cowboys defense got exposed last night, and unless the offense can dominate time of possession the rest of the way, I'm not sure the genie's going back in the bottle.

• Gutsy play calling by Jay Gruden, not only going on fourth down, but calling roll-outs and pass plays rather than running into the teeth of the defense.

• On 4th-and-3 and down three in overtime, Jason Garrett had to go for it in his own end, but you know he wanted to punt. Had he done so, would the game end at the moment the ball touched the punter's foot, crossed the line of scrimmage or stopped rolling?

• On the penultimate drive for the Eagles where they went ahead 20-17, an Arizona DB got called for a horsecollar tackle on LeSean McCoy. I tweeted in protest, and here's what happened:

@rlradski@Chris_Liss >>What? Are you watching a different game. It was classic horse collar.

— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) October 26, 2014

Assuming what I saw was correct, however, it's another instance of refs throwing a flag based on circumstantial rather than direct evidence. When a player's yanked back by the jersey, it looks like a horsecollar, but unless you see the hand go under the pads, don't call it! A sin of omission is almost never as bad as one of commission, an exception being the holding in the Dallas game which prevented a game-ending sack.

• I asked last week where the Steelers find all their receivers, and that question was answered during the game – apparently Mike Tomlin was a good college receiver at William and Mary, so he knows the position especially well. You can add Martavis Bryant to the list of wideouts the Steelers drafted and/or developed on his watch (Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Marcus Wheaton). Bryant breaks the small/quick mold with his size and speed, and Ben Roethlisberger is willing to target him down the field.

• Speaking of which, Roethlisberger came back into the game with 2:00 left with 522 passing yards. The single-game record is held by Norm Van Brocklin at 554, but the Steelers didn't try to get him the extra 33 to break it. I'm pretty sure were it Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, not only would he be throwing, but they'd have a special ceremony for him with 30 seconds left to celebrate it.

•Andrew Luck also had a huge game, and he has his own version of Brown (T.Y. Hilton) and Bryant (Donte Moncrief). Luck has been a monster all year, but he still has a tiny bit of Blake Bortles in him, with occasional poor decisions and ugly picks.

• I'm so glad I drafted Trent Richardson in a few places this year because it caused me to get Ahmad Bradshaw.

• If you want to be something really scary for Halloween, get a Rob Gronkowski mask. On his third score, he manhandled a hapless DB with a straight-arm, like a rook knocking off an undefended pawn. What a monster.

•Tom Brady looks like the peak version again, and unlike a lot of teams, the Patriots rarely go into a shell when they have a lead. Brady is now the No. 5 QB after the big three and Luck.

•Jonas Gray ran with power and burst, albeit against the Bears, but I'm buying him as the Stevan Ridley replacement. Before Ridley had the fumbling problems, it was a valuable role.

•Matt Forte is game-flow proof. Probably the No. 1 back in PPR – ahead of even DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell and Arian Foster.

• The Philly-Arizona game wasn't especially well played, but what a great finish between the go-ahead drive (Chip Kelly should have gone for the TD on fourth down), the perfectly thrown bomb to and great catch by John Brown and the final drive by the Eagles that ended in a would-be TD catch that was six inches out of bounds.

•Jeremy Maclin is the Eagles' Hilton/Brown – the small guy who is everywhere and catches most of what's thrown his way.

•Michael Floyd failed to catch a pass, but that might have had something to do with him pulling up lame on a sideline target in the first half. If healthy, he's too talented not to produce, so buy low if you can.

•Cordarrelle Patterson had 12 targets finally. He caught only six for 86 yards though.

• As Mark Stopa pointed out on Twitter, Sunday had to be a record for rookie receiver production: Sammy Watkins (157), John Brown (119), Moncrief (113), Brandin Cooks (94), Kelvin Benjamin (94), Bryant (83), Allen Robinson (82), Mike Evans (78), Davante Adams (75), Taylor Gabriel (60), Allan Hurns (49), Jordan Matthews (47), and Michael Campanaro (40) all went for 40 or more yards.

• What a dud the Bills backfield replacements turned out to be. Of course, it was against a tough run defense, but it's hard to get excited about anyone on that offense except Watkins.

•Steve Smith did (barely) extend his arms to push off on what would have been a game-winning touchdown catch against the Bengals, but the refs have to let that go. Both players had hands on each other, and Smith was more steadying himself than shoving the DB. The NFL needs to be honest and admit the new rules were a mistake. We needed neither more offensive PI, nor defensive PI. Go back to last year's standards.

• As much as I complain about random junk determining games and derailing my picks, I didn't mind the Dolphins two picks sixes in a game the Jaguars largely dominated for the entire first half. The Dolphins were my best bet ATS, my Survivor pick and I had picked up their defense in a key league. While I usually prefer to enjoy the bitter taste of bad luck like an aged scotch, occasionally it's worth cutting with remembrances of when things went your way.

•Mark Ingram looked like Terrell Davis Sunday night, and like Davis used to do, he finished his night by breaking a long score against a beaten-down defense. Ingram must have been playing hurt his first couple years, because he's not only a between-the-tackles runner, but has the speed to get outside. He's a top-10 running back right now.

• Receiver production is volatile by nature, but it would be nice to see Jordy Nelson get more than five targets and 25 yards in a game where Aaron Rodgers threw for 418.