Survivor: Backing the Eagles

Let's take a look at this week's slate:

The Colts jump out as easily the biggest favorite and most used team, but it's the time of year where the polling numbers are only rough guidelines, and you have to count the number of entries in your pool that have each of the top choices remaining and base your estimates on that.

That said, if we assume (per the polling data) there are 10 teams remaining, and four have the Colts, while one has the Eagles, the math breaks down as follows: Colts win/Eagles lose is 91.67% * 11.76% = 10.78%. Eagles win/Colts lose = 88.24% * 8.33% = 7.35%. The ratio of 11.76 to 7.35 = 1.3 to 1. Essentially, that's the added risk you'd take from using the Eagles over the Colts - at least according to Vegas.

But in the Eagles win/Colts lose scenario, four people are out, plus another would be expected to lose based on the remaining teams/odds distribution, meaning there would be five left. If there's $1000 in your pool, your equity would therefore double from $100 to $200.

If the Colts win/Eagles lose, only one person would go down, plus another on other teams, so there would be eight people left. Your equity in that case would go from $100 to $125. The ratio of 200:125 = 1.6. So assuming you agree with Vegas, and the polling numbers are reflective of your pool, the Eagles are the better value. They're more risky, but the payout is worth it.

My Picks

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Ken Whisenhunt punted away a winnable game on Monday night, and now has to rally his team on a short week for a trip to Philadelphia. The Eagles meanwhile are reeling from a blowout in Green Bay, but I'd expect them to be focused and not to overlook this game as a result. I give the Eagles an 89 percent chance to win this game.

2. Indianapolis Colts

Stranger things have happened than the Jaguars upsetting the Colts, and the Patriots certainly exposed Indy's run defense. But it's hard to see Jacksonville's defense holding up against the Colts' attack, and Blake Bortles has been arguably the most error-prone QB in the league this year. I give the Colts a 90 percent chance to win this game.

3. Green Bay Packers

I actually think this could be a close game, as Green Bay has been much better at home, and Minnesota's defense has shown up on occasion. But after a good game against Atlanta, Teddy Bridgewater has done nothing in his rookie season, and the Packers defense has played better as the year's gone on. I give the Packers an 80 percent chance to win this game.

4. New England Patriots

The Lions defense has been great all year, but the Patriots will find its weakness - whatever it is - and attack it. On the other side, the Patriots defense has been tough, especially at home, and I don't think Matt Stafford is up to the task. I give the Patriots a 76 percent chance to win this game.

5. San Francisco 49ers

The Niners were life and death with the Giants last week even though Eli Manning threw five picks, and Rashad Jennings got stuffed on 4th-and-1. Still, barring miraculous improvement in Robert Griffin's play, San Francisco should handle the Redskins at home. I give the 49ers a 77 percent chance to win this game.

6. Denver Broncos

The Broncos are awfully tough at home, but they might be missing Emmanuel Sanders and/or Julius Thomas, and the Dolphins are a tough defense, coming in on 10-days rest. I give the Broncos a 74 percent chance to win this game.

7. Kansas City Chiefs

I don't like the Thursday game in Survivor because it takes teams out of their routines, and anything different adds an element of volatility, something you don't want when backing big favorites to win. Moreover, the Chiefs' dink and dunk style make them bad candidates to come from behind should the bounces go against them early. And the game is in Oakland. All that said, there's a wide disparity in quality between these teams, and Alex Smith is less likely to lose a game for you than say Jay Cutler or Stafford. I give the Chiefs a 74 percent chance to win this game.

8. Chicago Bears

The Bears defense is bad, but they're at home and facing one of the worst defenses in the league, last week's strong showing against Washington notwithstanding. I give the Bears a 69 percent chance to win this game.

Notable omissions:

Seattle Seahawks - Vegas likes them better than the Bears, but this team is missing its center, doesn't rush the quarterback especially well and lacks threats on the outside. Maybe the Cardinals aren't 9-1 good, but they stop the run, so barring a disastrous showing by Drew Stanton, I'd expect this game to be close.

Buffalo Bills - Michael Vick isn't great, but unlike Geno Smith, he's an NFL quarterback. Bad weather also makes this too much of a crap shoot.