Survivor: Backing the Patriots

Let's take a look at this week's slate:

Based on the Vegas/polling numbers, the Packers and Patriots are the obvious plays, though I imagine few people have them available. After that, it's the Seahawks and Eagles, and if they're gone too, you're likely choosing between the Dolphins, Lions, Saints, Bills and Rams.

As always when we get this deep into the season, it's important to look at who the remaining survivors have available and base your "pot odds" math on what teams they're most likely to take.

My Picks:

1. New England Patriots

I don't love taking anyone on the road, and this is also a rivalry game. Moreover, the Jets gave the Pats all they could handle at Foxboro the first time around. Still, the Patriots are playing for home field advantage, which is crucial should they face the Broncos in the playoffs, and I expect them to be up for this game. I give New England an 84 percent chance to win this game.

2. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have been exposed the last couple weeks, first on defense by the Falcons, and then by the Bills who shut down their offense. Like everyone on the planet, I expect Aaron Rodgers to bounce back, but the Packers aren't the same team away from Lambeau Field this year. I give Green Bay an 83 percent chance to win this game.

3. Philadelphia Eagles

Another road team, and one that's lost two games in a row. But I like the Eagles to get after Robert Griffin and generate sacks, while their offense should connect for some deep balls against a terrible Washington secondary. Griffin, who finally looks healthy, is a wild card, but given the bad blood between him and Jay Gruden, I'd be surprised if he played the inspired game he'd have to for the Redskins to win. I give the Eagles a 77 percent chance to win this game.

4. Seattle Seahawks

While the Cardinals don't have a viable starting quarterback, one could argue that matters least of all against a dominant pass defense like the Seahawks where any QB tends to struggle. Put differently, there's not much difference between Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley when playing the Seahawks as there would be were they playing a more exploitable secondary. And Arizona's defense should give Seattle's offense a hard time - especially at home. That said, if the Seahawks score 10 points, that should be enough, and that's not too much to ask from Russell Wilson. I give the Seahawks a 75 percent chance to win this game.

5. Detroit Lions

I'm not big on Matthew Stafford, but the Bears defense is terrible, and coach Marc Trestman just benched Jay Cutler for Jimmy Clausen, who hasn't seen much action since 2010. I give the Lions a 73 percent chance to win this game.

6. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins were actually outplaying New England in the first half last week before the wheels came off in the second. I think they'll shut down Teddy Bridgewater at home, and their offense will generate enough to put this one away fairly easily. I give the Dolphins a 73 percent chance to win this game.

7. Baltimore Ravens

Because the Ravens have been used so heavily this year, they don't even make the top-12 in Week 16 usage, even though they're roughly a 70 percent favorite according to Vegas. I think they'll handle a Houston team that essentially had to sign some quarterbacks off the street this week - especially because the way to beat the Ravens is with the pass. I give Baltimore a 71 percent chance of winning this game.

8. St. Louis Rams

The Giants are dangerous here mainly because of Odell Beckham, but New York can't run the ball well, and the Rams pass rush is likely to cause problems for Eli Manning. I give St. Louis a 69 percent chance to win this game.

9. Buffalo Bills

The Raiders have played well at home of late, knocking off both the Chiefs and the 49ers, but the Bills should make life miserable for Derek Carr, and I'd expect Kyle Orton to generate just enough offense to pull out a win. I give the Bills a 69 percent chance to win this game.

10. New Orleans Saints

If Julio Jones doesn't play, I'm fine with using them here. If Jones is active, as more than a decoy, I'd move the Saints into the "notable omissions" category. Assuming Jones isn't a factor, I'd give the Saints a 67 percent chance to win this game.

11. Carolina Panthers

Normally, I wouldn't even consider the Panthers, but it's Week 16, so the pickings are getting slim. This assumes Cam Newton starts, in which case I think the Panthers, who are still in the playoff hunt, should handle the Johnny-Manziel-led Browns at home. I give the Panthers a 65 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

Jacksonville Jaguars: I think they'll handle a terrible Titans team at home, and it would be awfully nice to get through on Thursday night. But Blake Bortles has been so error prone, and Charlie Whitehurst isn't that terrible as far as third-stringers go.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Chiefs are a tough matchup for Pittsburgh with a good pass defense and a running back who can gash them for huge plays. I'd stay away from this.

Denver Broncos: Not that anyone has them available anyway, but on the road against a playoff-level team is a situation to avoid.

Dallas Cowboys: The Colts have nothing for which to play (unless the Patriots or Broncos were to lose their final two games), but there's no indication they'll rest their starters much, and DeMarco Murray's status is an issue given the Colts weakness against the run.