Collette Calls: Flash Delirium

Collette Calls: Flash Delirium

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

The baseball offseason continues to be a busy one. As it is, the baseball world anxiously waits for multiple long-confirmed deals that involve Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Jimmy Rollins. While those deals should go through, we still have enough content to talk about the deals that have actually been completed since the last column.

Here is the fantasy impact on the players that have new teams in 2015:

Miguel Montero traded to the Cubs: The trade to the Friendly Confines is a lateral move for Montero in terms of park factors, but the issue for Montero is health. He has exceeded 500 plate appearances in just three of the previous six seasons and despite the offensive potential, he has never reached the 20-homer plateau. In 2011, he had a strikeout rate of 17%, and he gave up contact in an attempt to hit for more power in 2012 and 2013 without the results. In 2014, he returned to hitting for more contact and yet had a sub .700 OPS for a second straight season despite a double-digit walk rate. There's been a 56-point swing in his batting average over the past three seasons which shows his volatility and he's yet to have one of those outlying HR/FB seasons that fuel a career year in home runs. He now has the right home park to do that – see Dioner Navarro 2013.

Jeff Samardzija traded to the White Sox: For fantasy purposes, we would all prefer that

The baseball offseason continues to be a busy one. As it is, the baseball world anxiously waits for multiple long-confirmed deals that involve Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Jimmy Rollins. While those deals should go through, we still have enough content to talk about the deals that have actually been completed since the last column.

Here is the fantasy impact on the players that have new teams in 2015:

Miguel Montero traded to the Cubs: The trade to the Friendly Confines is a lateral move for Montero in terms of park factors, but the issue for Montero is health. He has exceeded 500 plate appearances in just three of the previous six seasons and despite the offensive potential, he has never reached the 20-homer plateau. In 2011, he had a strikeout rate of 17%, and he gave up contact in an attempt to hit for more power in 2012 and 2013 without the results. In 2014, he returned to hitting for more contact and yet had a sub .700 OPS for a second straight season despite a double-digit walk rate. There's been a 56-point swing in his batting average over the past three seasons which shows his volatility and he's yet to have one of those outlying HR/FB seasons that fuel a career year in home runs. He now has the right home park to do that – see Dioner Navarro 2013.

Jeff Samardzija traded to the White Sox: For fantasy purposes, we would all prefer that he could have pitched in Oakland in 2015, but the risks of pitching in U.S. Cellular are offset by the big improvement in the offensive support he will enjoy on the south side of Chicago. Samardzija has posted above-league average strikeout rates for four consecutive seasons and showed the best command of his career last season. To date, he has never won double-digit games in a season, but that will most certainly change in 2015 as he could finally add a 15-plus win total to his good ratios and strikeout rate.

Josh Phegley traded to the Athletics: This is worth mentioning given the team's track record in taking other team's castoff catchers and finding value in them. Phegley has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but he also has some pop. He has spent the past three seasons in Triple-A Charlotte and owns a .278/.330/.477 line in just over 1,200 plate appearances. He has slugged over .500 in each of the past two seasons despite playing in two different stadiums in the Charlotte area (the new one is not cozy). In a deep AL league, he is an intriguing guy to keep an eye on for a second catcher spot as the Oakland roster takes shape.

Marcus Semien traded to the Athletics: Semien is slated to be the everyday shortstop for Oakland. Over the past two seasons in Triple-A, Semien owns a .266/.368/.491 slash line in 508 plate appearances. In the 326 plate appearances he has had in the majors during that time, his slash line is .240/.293/.380. He stole 24 bases in 2013 in the minors, but has attempted just seven steals at the major league level. One of the reasons why he hasn't been an everyday player is he has had issues against righties, but Oakland is going to give him the job because they do not have any better options on the roster.

David Robertson signs with the White Sox: He converted 39 of 44 saves stepping in as the full-time closer after the legend retired from the job. The skills were solid across the board for him as a setup guy and as a closer, and the new park and manager should not change anything for Robertson. If anything, he may see fewer save opportunities with a more explosive lineup supporting him.

Dee Gordon traded to the Marlins: Not shocking to see a Moneyball-GM trade away a player who doesn't work counts and draw walks. The switch to the spacious Marlins Park plus hitting in front of Giancarlo Stanton should help Gordon with seeing better pitches and getting triples. Then again, Gordon does very little in terms of hitting with power so pitchers may not be afraid of working in the strike zone against him. Mike Redmond will let him run as often as he wants, unless there is fear of leaving first base open for the intentional walk to Stanton. He will have to continue to leverage his speed to beat out batted balls because his low walk rate is not likely to improve any time soon.

Dan Haren traded to the Marlins: The biggest concern here is if Haren follows through on his threat to retire. He has made at least 30 starts as long as we can remember while posting good WHIPs and decent strikeout totals. His risk has centered around his home-run rates inflating his ERA, and a balky back that wears down on him as the season grows longer. Technically speaking, Haren should do well in the spacious park, but if he does retire, then it is all for naught. He is an endgame pitcher in mixed leagues as long as he does not retire.

Andrew Heaney traded to the Dodgers and then the Angels: This time last year, he was a top-30 prospect for both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. This month, he was traded twice in two days. He was a member of the Dodgers for less than a day before being sent to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. Heaney threw 137.1 innings over Double-A and Triple-A last season and limited batters to 120 hits, 36 walks, and 143 strikeouts. He did not find nearly as much success in the big leagues last year, but the talent is very much there. With Tyler Skaags out of the picture for awhile, Heaney has a strong shot at the final spot in the current Angels rotation. He is endgame material as an AL starter until he grows into his full potential.

Howie Kendrick traded to the Dodgers: Kendrick has yet to win that batting title some thought he could win, but he continues to hit for a high average year after year. His strikeout rate has improved in recent years while the notoriously impatient hitter is now drawing more walks. He has also stolen at least 10 bases in all of his recent full seasons. His fantasy fortunes aren't likely to change with the shift up the freeway in California, his consistent skills up the middle are still a valuable asset.

Delino Deshields Jr. acquired by the Rangers: The son of the former major leaguer was recently acquired in the Rule 5 draft by Texas. He does not really have a true defensive home, but he does have plenty of speed and has swiped 228 bases in 241 minor league attempts over parts of five seasons. He has yet to play above Double-A ball and has some sense of entitlement issues that have led to some problems on the field. If he gets a job out of camp, he will likely be on the team in a pinch-running capacity and some part-time play where he could pick up steals on the cheap. Deep AL-only leagues can roster in him in the reserves as a cheap speed source.

Josh Rutledge traded to the Angels: In short, this relocation makes him mostly unrosterable in all league formats. Rutledge was mostly an empty average bat that hit at home and did nothing on the road. He had a .287 batting average at Coors Field and a .230 average in all other parks. If you draft him, you will cut him before May 1st.

Justin Masterson signed by the Red Sox: In 2013, Masterson made strong gains across the board setting career highs in all categories and spent most of 2014 giving them right back. Part of that was driven by a career-worst .347 BABIP, but this wasn't a matter of bad luck. Masterson just didn't look right last season and now goes back to where it all began in Beantown. If he goes into the rotation, the strong Boston infield defense should help him rebound. The issue is that he will always be susceptible to lefties with his delivery so he has to find a way to limit the damage against them as he did in 2013 while continuing to be tough on righties.

Ross Detwiler traded to the Rangers: This isn't Rutledge-leaving-Coors bad, but it is close. Detwiler was a swing guy for the Nationals that did not miss many bats and relied on the defense to do a lot of the work for him. Now, he goes to a team that has good defense, but a ballpark that doesn't do him any favors. He is AL-only endgame material now, even if he is given a spot in the rotation.

Radhames Liz signed by the Pirates: The last time we saw Liz, it was in 2009 as he gave up 10 runs and 16 baserunners in 1.1 innings for the Orioles. From there, he pitched in the Korean Baseball League and spent 2014 pitching in the Blue Jays' system at Double-A and Triple-A. The Pirates have done well in taking other teams' castoffs and turning them into something of value, but this will be an ultimate test for them. Until he shows something, he is not worth anything other than a reserve pick in a deep NL-only league.

Wade Miley traded to the Red Sox: Partially because he wouldn't adhere to a gluten-free diet. Seriously. The move to Boston and their infield defense should help Miley lower the ratios and last season, he showed more of an ability to miss bats. He did have trouble keeping the ball in the yard in Arizona, which makes him a bit of a risk for ERA in Fenway, but Miley should be a safe three-category player in 2015 with the potential to help in all four categories.

Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa traded to the Diamondbacks: For sending away Miley, the Diamondbacks netted two live arms that are still trying to put it all together. Both guys have upside, and I like De La Rosa more because of the off-speed pitch, but neither of these guys are mixed league material in their current form, nor should they go before the endgame in NL-only leagues.

Ervin Santana signed by the Twins: Santana had the first above-average strikeout rate of his career in his first time in the National League, and while his overall skills were good, his ERA and WHIP did not align with the strikeout rate. He has started in 30 or more games for each of the past five seasons, and has reduced his home-run rate each of the past three seasons. Pitching in Target Field will be good for him, but having to face the offenses in the suddenly loaded AL Central will not be.

John Mayberry Jr. signed by the Mets: Mayberry has hit double-digit home runs in three of the past four seasons, but has always been limited by the fact he is a splits hitter. He has a career .269/.324/.533 line against southpaws, but a paltry .224/.293/.365 line against the righties. A new ballpark is not going to change that. You can take him in the endgame in NL-only leagues for cheap power, but understand that the ceiling is what it is.

Alberto Callaspo signed by the Braves: You would probably be surprised to learn that Callaspo has hit double-digit homers in four of past six seasons. He also hasn't hit for average since 2011 and hasn't driven in more than 60 runs since 2009. This, despite the fact that he has had at least 450 plate appearances in each of those seasons. Now he goes to Atlanta who finally ended the Dan Uggla experience and traded Tommy LaStella this offseason. Callaspo is not going to surprise in any one category, but he'll start and has little risk in his skills for NL-only leaguers looking for low-end safety up the middle.

Melky Cabrera signed by the White Sox: He has had one bad season over the past four and it was when he was playing with a non-cancerous tumor on his spine. He did not want to play on the fake grass for another season, so he found a new home in a great park for his talents. He is going to hit at the top of a potent White Sox lineup and give Jose Abreu ample opportunities to drive him in. Cabrera doesn't run much any longer, but who cares. He has a decent chance at exceeding his 2014 value in his new home. Invest in these safe skills.

Edinson Volquez signed by the Royals: Remember the comment about Pittsburgh fixing castoffs? This is a great example as Volquez had respectable ratios for the first time in his career thanks to the defense behind him. Now, he takes his talents to BBQ city, but the fact his FIP was a full run higher than his actual ERA shows the risks associated with the pitcher. That, and that he's made 30 or more starts in three of the past seven seasons. He has a below-league average strikeout rate and the ERA-FIP indicators raise eyebrows. Add in the leap over to the AL and away from the aggressive defensive positioning of the Pirates, and you have...someone you shouldn't be drafting in mixed leagues.

Derek Norris traded to the Padres: A.J. Preller is on a roll trading just about anything that isn't nailed down to get the pieces he wants. After dealing away Yasmani Grandal (allegedly) and Rene Rivera in recent days, he needed another catcher and got his man in Norris. Norris is an above-average offensive catcher whose issues are behind the plate rather than at it. He hit for double-digit homers in O.co, so the move to Petco should not hurt that much.

R.J. Alvarez & Jesse Hahn traded to the Athletics: Moving Norris will be easier for A's fans to digest with Hahn and Alvarez in the fold. Alvarez has but a handful of innings above Double-A, but in his minor league career he has struck out 178 batters while allowing 85 hits in 119 innings. If you're looking for the A's next Sean Doolittle, there he is. Hahn made 12 starts in his rookie season showing a live fastball and a big breaking ball to strike out 23% of opposing hitters and pitching to the strengths of his home park allowing four home runs to the 306 batters he faced. He'll fit well into an Oakland rotation that needs arms. Hahn's control limits his upside, but the strikeouts will be there with the stuff he has.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999, and here at Rotowire since 2011. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast every Sunday. A ten-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls,and was the 2023 AL LABR champion. Jason manages his social media presence at https://linktr.ee/jasoncollette
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