From the Press Box: Maple Leafs Changes

From the Press Box
Paul Bruno, RotoWire.com

What is the potential fantasy impact of the coaching change in Toronto? The Tampa Lightning are keeping pace with Montreal - does their roster have staying power to keep this up all season? The Canucks are shuffling their top two lines ... what is the fantasy impact there? Aaron Ekblad - is he a fantasy keeper?

The impact of the Randy Carlyle firing

The Maple Leafs currently have a tenuous grip on the last playoff spot in the East, but the way they have reached this point is the reason for this change. They have been one of the streakiest, most inconsistent teams thus far. For instance, they followed a 10-1-1 hot stretch with a 2-7 string of futility most recently.

This change is effectively a challenge to the on-ice leadership of this club. Sure, Phil Kessel is still among the best snipers and top point-scorers in the entire league, but he and three teammates (Bozak, van Riemsdyk and Phaneuf) are among the top five players who are on the ice, for the most shots against, in the entire league. That's a pretty scathing indictment of the top line and their alleged best overall defenseman.

With this change, this leadership group has now been put in the focus of the immediate future of the Leafs. They need to show much more consistency or they will be broken up before the start of the next season. As mentioned, they are still in a playoff position today, but they have shown glimpses of being more capable.

I think a lot will depend on how Kessel and Phaneuf respond, in particular. Neither is a reporter's dream when it comes down to questions and answers. However, they are the club's stars and highest paid players. If they respond positively, the club will be well positioned to have an impact in the post-season. Talent-wise, they are capable of a strong finish.

What I suspect is that they will not take kindly to recent events and the intensified focus on them, in particular, giving the team's management every reason to try to move them as soon as possible. From a fantasy standpoint, they will be hard to move with the current baggage they are carrying.

Tampa - Lightning in a bottle...or sustainable?

The trip to Florida for visiting NHL clubs has not been the "come for a visit and take away four points" jaunt that it used to be just a couple of years ago. Tampa made visitors pay dearly and, in fact, challenged established powers like Boston, Montreal and Detroit for division supremacy all year long. That story has remained unchanged this year as well.

When looking at the roster, two names certainly stand out as players who are among the best at their respective positions. We all know that Steven Stamkos will be a perennial challenger for the goal-scoring lead in the NHL and that Victor Hedman, at 6'6", 230 lbs., is as skilled an offensive defenseman in the league as well.

Beyond them, General Manager Steve Yzerman has assembled a deep and talented forward complement, built in his image and resembling his Detroit experience. Certainly, with the mention if the Wings, we note the presence of the versatile Valtteri Filppula, who has been a fixture among the top two scoring lines here, either playing the second line center role, or, as he is currently assigned to Stamkos' wing. He is also earning regular duty as a playmaker on the power play.

In addition, the value of drafting well and finding gems beyond the first round has rewarded the Lightning with additional firepower in recent years. Nikita Kucherov is a late second-round pick from 2011, who has enjoyed a breakout campaign in his sophomore season in the NHL. He has compiled 41 points in 42 games. Similarly, Ondrej Palat, who was a seventh-round pick in that same 2011 Draft has really enjoyed immediate success in Tampa, with a 59 point rookie season, followed up by his 32 points in 38 games so far this year.

Alex Killorn (3rd round in 2007) and Jonathan Drouin (1st round in 2013) are two more forwards who have, and are expected to continue to be key contributors here as well. In support of these solid draft selections, the Lightning management and scouting group need to take a bow for the acquisition of undrafted Tyler Johnson who has followed up his 50-point rookie campaign, with a team-leading 45 points in 41 games played.

Steve Yzerman even managed to get out from under Marty St. Louis's trade demand last season to bring in Ryan Callahan, to take on a leadership role here and 30 points in 37 games this season to complete the construction of one of the league's deepest and most potent offenses.

The Sedins have a new line-mate after a roster shuffle

The Canucks have enjoyed a nice start to this season and are currently challenging the three California-based clubs for the Pacific Division lead, again mainly due to the scoring exploits of the Sedin twins. Daniel and Henrik have 35 and 34 points respectively. Veteran winger Radim Vrbata was ticketed as their line-mate almost from the beginning of training camp. He has fit in most admirably, compiling a team-leading 16 goals while riding shotgun with the Super Swedes.

The motivation for the switch of Vrbata has a couple of contributing factors. First, Vrbata's success may be the key to creating a second potent offense unit, with a focus around him. He came to the Canucks with four prior 20+ goal seasons on his 12 year career resume and has been regarded as a defensively responsible player as well.

The fact that they are looking at Alex Burrows is because he was previously cast as the Sedin's playing partner earlier in his career, where he posted four straight 25+ goal seasons himself.

During the past two seasons, away from the Sedins, his productivity dropped off, with only 18 total goals in that span. This season, in a second line role once again, he is tied for second on the club with nine goals and rebounding a bit to his earlier form. Another byproduct of this change is to offer the slightly more abrasive Burrows as some protection against the physicality and tight checking that opponents are trying to throw at Daniel and Henrik.

Vrbata's numbers may take a bit of a hit, while Burrows should see a positive spike...definitely a situation worth watching.

Aaron Ekblad - a buy low sell high candidate or a keeper?

Several factors go into this evaluation. Is he a flash in the pan? What sort of team is around him? Is he being rushed into lots of minutes prematurely? Ekblad was drafted first overall in the 2014 Draft. He was advertised as a generational talent at a position that has traditionally been the most difficult, when it comes to getting acclimatized to the NHL game.

He has responded to that challenge by continue to show all the attributes that made him such a high pick. At 6'3" and 220 lbs. he has a physical frame that allows him to engage with the other biggest players in the league and he adds a skating agility that give him an advantage over most of them, too.

Known as a high-scoring blueliner with a fine set of offensive skills, he has been linked with veteran Bryan Campbell, learning how to run an attack from one of the finest offensive defensemen in recent memory. He has responded to this challenge by already producing 22 points (second on the team) and playing an average of 22 minutes per game. Rather remarkably, he also leads the Panthers with a +9 rating.

In the meantime, GM Dale Tallon has surrounded him with a young group of recent drafts and other additions that have the Panthers enjoying a pretty good season, where they are currently in a fight for a playoff spot. That's pretty good for a team that won the Draft lottery (on merit) last season.

I think the best is yet to come for Ekblad and the Panthers and would much rather hold onto him in keeper leagues rather than trade him away now. Besides, most of his owners in fantasy rotisserie leagues would not have paid a lot to get him as an unproven commodity. His payoff could be huge and should be long-term.