Bargain Basement Bats: The 2014 Disappointments

Fantasy baseball is a game best played with an objective mindset. In fantasy football, a Denver Broncos fan can build a team around Peyton Manning and his receivers to pair their real life rooting interest with their fantasy team. Fantasy baseball folks are a different breed. We are anything but casual fans. We are die-hard stat-heads, and with all due respect, we are more cerebral. We study intently, poring over oodles of data, making late-round sleeper lists, preparing for the gut-wrenching 162-game marathon. It's not for the faint of heart or mind.

Despite hardcore dedication to our preparation, subjectivity rears its ugly head. A Cardinals fan may justify drafting Adam Wainwright in the second round; others may push up their favorite players several rounds above their Average Draft Position (ADP) in an effort to build a team around 'safe' players who helped their teams in previous years. Even the most disciplined and successful fantasy players can be guilty of this.

Conversely, we have a conscious aversion - a roto gag-reflex, if you will - against players who have burned us, especially if it cost an early-round pick. Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, and Bryce Harper come to mind. In fact, among last year's consensus first-round picks, only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen, and Clayton Kershaw returned first-round value. We would all like to make the right pick in that first round – that's why sometimes we opt for the stability of a player like Adam Jones – but it doesn't make or break your fantasy team. Just ask the guy who won over $50,000 in the NFBC this year despite taking Ryan Braun in the first round, or the guy who won $100,000 with Prince Fielder and his 42 games played as his first-round pick.

What did those winners have in common? They paid close attention to players who were "Last Year's Bums" and snagged many of them as late values including Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and J.D. Martinez. Altuve and Brantley were true breakout players, but if you look closely, they fit the LYB criteria much more aptly – both had been in the big leagues since 2011, and both were coming off of subpar 2013 seasons.

Anthony Rizzo was a certified LYB entering 2014, and we saw what he was capable of in Wrigley last season. After being something of an afterthought mid-round pick, Rizzo is a player likely to be considered at the wheel late in the first round of drafts this season. Other LYB candidates are ones that have either dealt with injuries or simply struggled for unknown reasons, but they are capable of reinventing themselves.

Let's take a look at the top rebound candidates for 2015, as well as a group of players you should avoid after their 2014 decline.

Rebound Targets

Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians

Kipnis sustained an oblique injury in late April, which affected his swing and subsequently hampered his production for the rest of the season. Oblique strains are difficult for players to deal with, as they can be easily aggravated and even sneezing can cause significant pain. While Kipnis was a risky pick at his second-round ADP last year, he should provide value at a much safer price point this season – most likely after the first 60 picks are off the board. He turns 28 on the eve of the 2015 season and should once again hit in the top third of an improving lineup that added another power bat in Brandon Moss over the winter. Keep an eye on Kipnis during spring training, as he had surgery on his left ring finger in December after suffering an injury during offseason workouts.With health, Kipnis should return to his 15-homer, 30-steal level, and score plenty of runs with the added bonus of playing the most scarce position in fantasy baseball.

Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego Padres

Gyorko had an awful sophomore campaign – the first half of which was slowed by plantar fasciitis – and a big reason behind the struggles with his swing. He also adjusted when opposing pitchers were consistently getting him to chase off-speed pitches. After spending extended time on the disabled list, Gyorko had a much better second half, doubling his walk rate and reducing his strikeout rate. The 22.6% strikeout rate that he posted last season was actually a mild improvement from the 23.4% mark in his rookie year. Gyorko should be cheap in drafts this year, mostly due to recency bias, a power-suppressing home park, and his .231 career batting average. Don't sleep on Gyorko – the 23 home runs that he hit in 125 games two years ago were no fluke.

Michael Saunders, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Saunders played in just 78 games last season while dealing with four different injuries including an abdominal strain that cost him 50 games. He'll never win a batting title, but if he can stay on the field, he's capable of a 20-homer, 20-steal season. He nearly reached that level with the Mariners hitting 19 homers and stealing 21 bases in 2012. Saunders is certainly capable of a career year in his age-28 season playing in the power-friendly confines of Rogers Centre. Throw in a more talented lineup around him to support his counting stats, and he's a great late-round bench choice in deep leagues.

Mark Trumbo, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Sticking with the theme of low average and big power, Trumbo fits the bill as a Last Year's Bum due to his relatively high ADP (NFBC: 58.8) in 2014, and that he was limited to four partial months of at-bats. An early-season foot injury put him on the shelf until the All-Star break, and Trumbo was never fully able to regain his trademark power during his first season with Arizona. Prior to 2014, Trumbo averaged nearly 32 home runs in his previous three seasons, and he is capable of repeating 30 homers regardless of his home park. In a power-deficient league that saw only 11 players hit 30 or more home runs last season – compared to 27 in 2012 – a healthy Trumbo is a valuable commodity, even if he comes with the risk of a sub-.250 average.

Honorable Mentions
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants

2014 Fallers To Avoid

Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

You can't help but feel for a guy whose son passed away mid-season, and it's fair to assume that a big part of his struggles last season were the result his grief. Keep in mind, however, that Segura followed his second-half decline in 2013 with a cold start to 2014 – before the tragedy – and he was dropped to the eighth spot in the batting order. He doesn't walk enough for a leadoff hitter (4.5% walk rate over the last two years) and his .294 rookie-season batting average was largely driven by a .326 BABIP. Segura has wheels and is capable of 30-plus steals again – he stole 44 bases two years ago. Of course, he won't be a third-round pick again in 2015 for obvious reasons, and with a batting average driven on-base percentage, Segura might be hard-pressed to find his way back to the top of the Brewers' lineup.

Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels

With all of the damage that Hamilton has done to his body, it's amazing that he's managed to surpass 500 at-bats in three of the past five seasons. His power has declined for three consecutive years, and injuries have continued to catch up to him as he dealt with thumb, shoulder, and calf issues for most of last year. He heads into his age-34 season as a shell of his former self, which was an elite talent with incredible plate discipline. Hamilton barely hit over .200 in his first four months as an Angel in 2013. He swung at nearly every pitch thrown his way en route to a 28% strikeout rate to end 2014, walking away from every at-bat with an air of indifference. While Hamilton is certainly capable of hitting 25 home runs again, he's much more likely to spend a good chunk of the 2015 season on the trainer's table.

Wilin Rosario, C, Colorado Rockies

It's a good thing (most) fantasy leagues don't count defensive stats as Rosario was one of the NL's worst backstops again last year. He was unable to sustain any sort of rhythm, often losing at-bats to backup Michael McKenry even after returning to the lineup following his DL stint. Rosario appears to be very much the product of the stat-inflated environment in Colorado, as he had a .902 home OPS last season compared to .636 on the road. To make matters worse, he struggled against right-handed pitchers (.249 last year, compared to .310 vs LHP). On the bright side, Rosario is one of a few catchers capable of hitting 20 home runs. He also reduced his strikeout rate significantly and increased his walk rate, exhibiting more patience in his at-bats last season. What it comes down to is that he's a prime-hitting catcher when he's hitting at home in Coors Field and against left-handers. Otherwise, he seems ideally suited to play on the smaller side of a platoon.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

Pedroia's ADP won't fall too far based on name recognition and the big-market team that he plays for, but it's time to get off the horse. The primary concern is that he's delivered three straight declining seasons of home runs and stolen bases after peaking with 21 homers and 26 steals in 2011. The pesky wrist injury certainly played a part in his 2014 struggles, but nine home runs and seven stolen bases are unacceptable totals for a top-five second baseman. Pedroia has an excellent lineup around him and should once again contribute to the underappreciated runs category, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and he's unlikely to hit .300 again. Brian Dozier hit 23 home runs and stole 21 bases while piling up 112 runs scored last season – he is three years younger and likely available just one round ahead of Pedroia.

Honorable Mentions

Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF, Oakland A's
Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
Alex Rios, OF, Kansas City Royals

This article appears in the 2015 edition of the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide.