Mound Musings: Arms to Watch in the AL Central

We're now close to the middle of the six-part series on key arms to watch in each of baseball's divisions. As you know, these pitchers might be primed for a breakout, ready to take a significant step forward, they might be on the precipice or they might just be a value-in-waiting. In any case, you need to be aware of these hurlers on draft day 2015. Let's get to it this week with:

Seven Arms to Watch in the AL Central

Jeff Samardzija (CWS) - OK, I'm not 100 percent sure you will be able to buy him for less than his anticipated value, but I do expect a big, big year. The White Sox were busy this offseason, and they are building a pretty decent club, with Samadzija an integral part of it. He spent the early part of last year toiling for a horrible Cubs team that never gave him much support. His peripherals were good, but his record was atrocious. He moved to Oakland, which should have helped, but the results were mixed. So where does he settle in with the southsiders in Chicago? He will have to be careful pitching in a hitter's park that is a home run haven, but he will benefit from a competitive lineup. I expect him to zone in and make his pitches. Look for a solid WHIP and ERA with productive strikeout totals and a nice collection of wins as opponents rue the days where they face Chris Sale and Shark back-to-back. That's a one-two punch most any team would love to have.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) - What a difference a slider makes. A limited repertoire doesn't usually play well in the majors, and prior to last season, Carrasco had good stuff and a high profile resume, but he was ineffective in 2011, missed all of 2012 (Tommy John surgery) and was brutal when he returned to Cleveland late in 2013. Last season was more of the same early on, and after a long stretch in the bullpen where he tinkered with a slider and refined his command no one was all that optimistic. It all came together and he dominated following his return to the rotation in August. With a lively fastball and a sinker that produces a lot of groundballs, that slider proved to be a useful addition as he showed the ability to throw strikes and miss bats. A couple of months is a brief glimpse, so there is always the chance he could backslide, but Carrasco is not a run-of-the-mill arm who happened to enjoy a brief taste of success. I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and take a shot on him if the price isn't too high.

Alex Meyer (MIN) - I'm a little surprised Meyer isn't generating more hype heading into draft season. He produced respectable numbers at Triple-A last year and deals three above average pitches, including a fastball that sits in the high 90s and occasionally touches triple digits. He's impressive on the mound too, and while his stature sometimes plays havoc with command consistency, he is making progress at locking in that release point. If it happens soon, he could be a dominant force. He's tough to catch up with and has notched more than a strikeout an inning consistently over his professional career. He's expected to compete for the fifth starting spot in the Twins rotation, and how he fares this spring should determine his role when the season begins. If the Twins think he needs a bit more seasoning, he could go back to Triple-A for a couple months, but it's only a matter of time. Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana are slotted into the top spots, but after that pair there isn't much blocking the path for Meyer or fellow hot prospect Jose Berrios. I'm a buyer.

Yordano Ventura (KC) - Here's another big arm with huge upside. Ventura has explosive stuff and easily sits in the upper 90s with his fastball, with an occasional clocking of as high as 102 mph. He complements that with a nice breaking ball and a decent (but improving) changeup. He generally throws strikes but could still use a little more refined command of the strike zone, albeit with his stuff, close is often good enough. The concerns regarding the young flamethrower relate to sometimes tending to overthrow. He still needs to develop more confidence in his everyday stuff and stop just reaching back for more when he finds himself in a jam. Once that happens -- and it is likely happening with every outing -- his walk rate will drop, putting fewer runners on base, and his strikeout rate will rise (it was 7.8 last season). He doesn't have to come out of his shoes with each pitch to dominate, and he's learning that. And, that's important for another reason. He experienced some minor physical problems last year, including elbow fatigue, and his "here it comes, see if you can catch up to it" style makes him a bit risky with regard to injuries. You have to love his upside, but he's still improving.

Justin Verlander (DET) - I almost put Shane Greene in this spot, but he is getting a lot of attention in draft rooms, which could make his price creep beyond the value level, and I felt compelled to throw Verlander out here one more time in hopes of him recapturing the luster he enjoyed just a few seasons ago. Verlander has endured a gradual dip in velocity the last few years, but there is still plenty of gas. Most important, he showed signs during the second half of last season that he is becoming ever more comfortable with using what he has. He still averages a little more than 92 mph and can hit 95 when he needs to, so it's not like he has an anemic fastball. I'm not sure if his declining velocity is due to some type of minor injuries, mechanical issues or perhaps it's just high mileage (200-plus innings a season is routine for him), but he was simply too good for too long to overlook on draft day. His 2014 numbers -- 1.39 WHIP, 4.54 ERA and just 159 strikeouts in 206 innings -- should depress his price. I'm willing to take a shot.

Gavin Floyd (CLE) - After returning from Tommy John surgery in last May, Floyd posted pretty solid numbers for the Braves. Unfortunately, it lasted just 54 innings before a fractured right elbow ended his year. Yes, it's a small sample, but a 1.25 WHIP with a 2.65 ERA and 45 strikeouts in those 54 innings coming immediately after a year off is encouraging. Now with the Indians, he'll look to pick up where he left off, and I think he has recently been absent enough to possibly be overlooked in many leagues. Remember, several years ago Floyd was a highly thought of young arm, but he never quite put it all together, and at age 32 he is certainly no longer a "prospect" per se. That's OK. He can still provide your fantasy team with quality innings at the back of your rotation. I think he's a good candidate to fill one of those "do no harm -- or at least minimal harm -- spots" in a contending fantasy team's rotation.

Kris Medlen (KC) - Here's the wild-card pick for the AL Central. I have always liked Medlen, and in 2012 and 2013 he strutted his stuff, including going 15-12 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP as a full-time starter in 2013. Unfortunately, he underwent a second Tommy John surgery last March and missed the entire season. It's the fact that it was his second surgery that makes him a wild card. Recovery from a second TJ surgery can drag out a bit longer, and there is no firm timetable for his return. The Royals did give him a two-year contract during the offseason, so they think he'll be back and that he'll be productive when he returns, they just aren't saying when. My guess is he could be back by midseason and that he could be a nice boost to your rotation if you have the roster flexibility to draft and stash him. Obviously, long-term health is worrisome, but he is worth a minimal investment to be sure.

The Endgame Odyssey

Here we'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. For these six weeks, the focus will be on the division featured in arms to watch.

The Twins will again hand the ball to Glen Perkins if they can carry a lead into the ninth, and as long as he stays healthy, there aren't many viable options in Minnesota with Jared Burton now gone. Casey Fien is probably the caddy here. ... Future Hall-of-Famer Joe Nathan begins the year at the head of the Tigers' end-game menu, but I think Joakim Soria will be the man before too long, and both do give them time to perhaps further develop Bruce Rondon. ... The White Sox made moves to suggest they are serious this year, and David Robertson comes over from the Yankees to anchor their bullpen. ... Greg Holland again figures to be at or near the top of AL closers in Kansas City, and the Royals have the luxury of outstanding arms like Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera to set him up. ... I'm not totally convinced Cody Allen is the final solution in Cleveland, but they don't have much to challenge him. Bryan Shaw would likely be the in-house option, but Allen is probably a better bet to succeed.

Next week we'll look at Seven Arms to Watch in the NL Central.