Regan's Rumblings: Debating the Cheat Sheet

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Updated on March 26, 2015 6:45PM EST

At RotoWire, you can be sure that none of the baseball analysts agree 100 percent with our cheat sheets. You'll likely get 100 percent consensus that Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw rank No. 1 at their respective positions, but some might prefer Miguel Cabrera over Paul Goldschmidt (I don't) or perhaps Jonathan Lucroy over Buster Posey (I'll take Posey, but it's close). When you get down to the No. 10 second baseman, opinions will vary even more. Some prefer youth/upside over past production, and some like the consistency that say, a Martin Prado, brings to the table.

This week, I'll discuss players I would rank a bit higher than do our cheat sheets. (I'll focus on players ranked farther down on the list, as it really doesn't add much value to say that I'd prefer Johnny Cueto over Zack Greinke, as an example.)

Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud (No. 21) over Derrek Norris (No. 10)

This is a decent-sized gap. D'Arnaud has yet to display the promise he showed as a prospect in the Blue Jays' system, batting .242/.302/.416 last year, mixing in a Triple-A stint due to a .178 start to the season. After that, though, d'Arnaud returned and hit a solid .272 while displaying 20-plus HR power. Simply project that over the course of a full season, and he's easily a top-10 catcher. I particularly like his 15.2 percent strikeout rate, and given last year's low .260 BABIP, I can see him hitting in the .260s with above-average

Belt is batting .325/.460/.675 with an 11:10 K:BB and three homers this spring, but that's not the only reason I like him, of course. Belt, if you recall, hit .289/.360/.481 for the Giants in 2013 before a thumb injury and concussion symptoms derailed his 2014 season. His sweet swing should generate 20-25 home runs annually, and I think he has the ability to hit .300. Belt is decent against left-handers, and despite 2014 being an off year, he still posted a .206 ISO. Belt strikes out more than I'd like (27.2 K% last year, 21.9 in 2013), but the way he's hitting this spring and with his 2013 figured in, I can see something along the lines of .295/.370/.500 with 23 HR and 90 RBI.

Second Base: Brett Lawrie (No. 25) is a top-13 second baseman

Lawrie has admittedly been a huge disappointment given he was the 16th overall pick in the 2008 draft and one of the top hitting prospects a few years ago. Lawrie has gone on to bat a middling .265/.323/.426 in more than 1,400 plate appearances while dealing with an assortment of injuries. Now with this third organization in the A's, this write-up is more about my faith in Billy Beane than anything. Lawrie is just 5-for-28 this spring while dealing with the vague "general soreness" injury, but the dual (2B/3B) position eligibility combined with the upside he once showed, has me buying in for at least one more year. Lawrie struck out a reasonable 17.4 percent last year, and his .174 ISO was his highest since his 43-game stint in 2011. I think there's a big year to come in that bat, and I'm hopeful that year is 2015.

Third Base: Lonnie Chisenhall (No. 23) is a top-15 third baseman

A bit of an enigma this year, Chisenhall had what appeared to be a breakout 2014, batting .283/.343/.427. But in what was a tale of two halves, Chisenhall rode a .371 BABIP to a .332/.396/.519 first half, and when the BABIP inevitably plummeted to .270 after the break, Chisenhall hit a meager .218/.277/.315 in the second half. Once July rolled around, Chisenhall struck out more and hit fewer balls in the air, and those balls that were previously finding gaps were caught. One thing that offers optimism is that Chisenhall no longer looks like a platoon guy. After batting .149 in 74 at-bats versus LHP in 2012-2013, the lefty-swinger hit .294/.353/.376 against them in 2014. Sure, only one of his 13 home runs came off southpaws, but the solid batting average should serve to keep him in the lineup most every day this year. Chisenhall is 11-for-31 (.355) with six doubles this spring, and 2015 looks like it could be an extension of his 2014 breakout.

Shortstop: Wilmer Flores (No. 31) is a top-15 shortstop

Flores has seemingly been around forever, but he's still just 23 after signing as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela in 2007. He's been highly regarded for years, but after making his big-league debut at 21 in 2013, the luster has worn off a bit considering that in 375 big-league plate appearances, he's batting just .240/.275/.356. He's been an excellent contact hitter, striking out just 11.3 percent of the time last year, but like many international imports, the plate discipline is lacking (4.4 BB%). I liked what I saw of him last September when Flores hit .278/.313/.500 with four homers and a 7:5 K:BB in 95 PA, and this spring has been more of the same with a .342/.350/.605 line. The power appears to be coming for the 6-foot-3 shortstop. Whether the plate discipline ever comes is a question, but unless you're in OBP leagues, take the plunge. I can see .280-15-65 in 2015. If that seems underwhelming, consider that only five shortstops last year hit as many home runs and just six regulars topped a .280 BA.

Outfield: Dalton Pompey (No. 107), Curtis Granderson (No. 74), Joc Pederson (No. 56) are ranked too low

A player who ended 2013 at Low-A and then made his big-league debut the following season has to qualify as a fast riser. Pompey did just that, batting .317/.392/.465 with nine homers and 43 stolen bases across three levels before making his big-league debut in September. That didn't go as well, of course, (.231/.302/.436), but he did show some power and a 9.3 percent walk rate is solid. Pompey looks to have a line on the center field job, as he's batting .310/.341/.429 with three steals and four XBH this spring, and while he's still growing into his power and unlikely to hit more than 5-7 home runs this year, 30 stolen bases are a distinct possibility. The guess is that he'll start the year hitting low in the lineup, but if he shows enough, he'll eventually join Jose Reyes at the top hitting in front of some serious lumber.

I was happy to land Granderson for $12 in our 18-team Staff League auction Tuesday. Although I try to remind myself that spring stats don't matter, I still am excited about Granderson's .424/.512/.667 line. I also hate to put too much stock into things like this, but the Mets this offseason hired Kevin Long as their hitting coach, the same Kevin Long who worked with Granderson during his time with the Yankees. Long is working to "fix his swing, and so far so good, I'd say. Granderson is sporting an excellent 4:7 K:BB this spring, and after hitting just .157 last spring, he's entering 2015 on a positive note. The guess is that Juan Lagares (.432 OBP this spring) leads off, but Granderson isn't running nearly as much these days anyway, so hitting down in the lineup could allow him to approach a .260-25-90 season.

I had to throw in a Dodger, right? Manager Don Mattingly hasn't come out and said it just yet, but Pederson will be the team's Opening Day center fielder, likely hitting near the bottom of the order initially. After putting up a 30/30 season last year for Triple-A Albuquerque, Pederson shot up the prospect charts and is batting a healthy .415/.455/.732 this spring with three home runs and a pair of stolen bases. In addition to a high strikeout rate (26.9 percent in 2014), one of the knocks on Pederson prior to this year was his lack of ability versus left-hand pitching, but he put that to rest in 2014, pounding out a .299/.422/.598 batting line versus southpaws, with that 1.020 OPS a couple ticks higher than his mark against right-handed pitching. As a young player who racks up his share of strikeouts, Pederson is going to have his struggles, but a season in which he hits .260 while approaching 20/20 is definitely possible. He should be in the NL Rookie of the Year conversation.

Starting Pitching: Jered Weaver (No. 66), Michael Wacha (No. 47), James Paxton (No. 101) are ranked too low

Weaver's velocity is worth noting, as he's been in the 82-84 mph range with his fastball early in camp, but after making an adjustment following his March 11 start, Weaver has allowed one run in 10 innings with an 11:1 K:BB. He has a 1.69 ERA and 15:4 K:BB in 16 spring innings. Weaver is on the downside of his career, as his velocity has declined for four years running and his ERA for three. After four consecutive seasons with a sub-2.2 BB/9, that number spiked to a still-solid 2.7 last year, but his K/9 increased from 6.8 to 7.1, indicating that his stuff continues to evolve and be more deceptive. Weaver has added a reported 25 pounds this offseason, and while it's wise to be wary of these sort of "best shape of his life" stories, perhaps that will help him go deeper into games and not wear down in the second half (though that didn't seem t be an issue last year). Garrett Richards is the Angels' ace now, but you might be able to get Weaver at a relative discount this year.

Even if Wacha goes on to bigger and better things, I might always remember him for going 2-0 with 13.2 scoreless innings against the Dodgers in the 2013 NLCS. Oh, and he faced and outpitched a guy named Clayton Kershaw in both starts. This year, Wacha is coming off a season in which he managed just 19 starts due to a shoulder issue. The 19 starts were decent enough (3.20 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9), but you wonder what could have been had his shoulder been 100 percent healthy all year. All looks good now, as Wacha sports a 1.76 spring ERA in 15.1 innings with an impressive 13:1 K:BB. The skills he showed in the 2013 postseason are still there, and if you can get him as the 47th pitcher off the board, you'd be doing quite well for yourself. I have him in my top 30.

Paxton is probably this low due to his spring getting off to a late start (he debuted on March 22) due to a wrist injury, but the left-hander is fine and could be the team's No. 2 starter if the Mariners want to break up right-handers Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. Paxton tossed 3.1 scoreless innings Sunday, working around five hits as he tries to shake the rust off. Remember now, this is no soft-tossing southpaw. Paxton averaged 94.8 mph on his fastball last year and should easily eclipse his 7.2 K/9 in what will be his first full big league season. He has some work to do to drive down his 3.5 BB/9, but as a ground ball pitcher (nearly 3:1 GB:FB) who misses bats, the upside looks to be tremendous. I would not be surprised to see him be a top-50 starter this year, and perhaps better.

Relief Pitching: LaTroy Hawkins (No. 40), Chad Qualls (No. 45), Jenrry Mejia (No. 46) are ranked too low

In what will be his final season, Hawkins enters 2015 as the team's closer but remains a popular pick to be one of the first closers to lose his job. The same thing was said last year as well, but Hawkins still managed to hold the job last year while compiling 23 saves. No reason he can't do it again this year, as his velocity is better than ever with a 93.2 mph average fastball a year ago and with a 2.2 BB/9, his control remains excellent. I'm not expecting much more than last place in the NL West for the Rockies this year, so it would not surprise me at all to see a sort of "passing of the torch" to Adam Ottavino or Rex Brothers at some point, but I still expect Hawkins to provide a good return on a minimal investment.

Qualls has yet to be named the team's 2015 closer by manager A.J. Hinch, but I think it's only a matter of time. Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek are the others in the mix, but Qualls is probably the favorite given his 19 saves and amazing 43:5 K:BB in 51.1 innings a year ago. All three are faring well this spring, so perhaps this competition carries over to the regular season, but unless Qualls implodes between now and Opening Day, he's likely to be the guy. Whether he keeps that job all year is a question, and I'd certainly handcuff him with Gregerson in deeper leagues, but he should rank higher than No. 45.

Mejia is set to open as the Mets' closer ahead of the injured Bobby Parnell (elbow, late-April return) and hard-throwing Jeurys Familia. Familia is intriguing given his upper-90s fastball (2014 avg: 96.4 mph), but his 3.7 BB/9 needs to come down significantly before he sees ninth-inning duty. Of course, Mejia is also known for his walks (3.9 BB/9 in 2014), but that's been a focus this spring and he's yet to walk a guy in five innings. Mejia needs to get off to a good start to hold off Parnell and eventually, Familia, but he did rack up 36 saves last year despite a 1.48 WHIP, a number that I see coming down considerably given his performance this spring and having that year under his belt.