FAAB Factor - NL: First Week Job Openings

FAAB Factor - NL: First Week Job Openings

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.


Welcome to another year of the FAAB Factor. Once again, our assumptions for this article are that you have a $100 budget. We try to cover various types of leagues in this feature, but we can't anticipate every single player available. Some leagues are 10-team mixed leagues, others are 12-team NL-only. We'll do our best to anticipate those available for both types, but if we don't cover a specific player, just ask about him in the comments.

The first week of the season is especially difficult to cover, as some leagues just drafted but others drafted more than a month ago. For the most part, we're going to cover players whose value has changed in the last couple of weeks of spring training.

Finally, due to Passover, I'm covering for Jan Levine this week and Kenn Ruby is doing the same next week. After that, Jan will be covering for the remainder of the season.

Starting Pitchers:

Archie Bradley - Because Bradley was coming off such a difficult 2014 season, we expected that he wouldn't get the call until some point midseason. Bradley accelerated the Diamondbacks' timetable with a fantastic spring, posting a 1.61 ERA over 22.1 innings, with a 14:6 K:BB while not allowing a homer. Control was Bradley's downfall when healthy last year, though that's obviously related - a pitcher's command is going to suffer when his elbow is barking. Bradley is slated to face Clayton Kershaw in his first start, though at least it's at home.


Welcome to another year of the FAAB Factor. Once again, our assumptions for this article are that you have a $100 budget. We try to cover various types of leagues in this feature, but we can't anticipate every single player available. Some leagues are 10-team mixed leagues, others are 12-team NL-only. We'll do our best to anticipate those available for both types, but if we don't cover a specific player, just ask about him in the comments.

The first week of the season is especially difficult to cover, as some leagues just drafted but others drafted more than a month ago. For the most part, we're going to cover players whose value has changed in the last couple of weeks of spring training.

Finally, due to Passover, I'm covering for Jan Levine this week and Kenn Ruby is doing the same next week. After that, Jan will be covering for the remainder of the season.

Starting Pitchers:

Archie Bradley - Because Bradley was coming off such a difficult 2014 season, we expected that he wouldn't get the call until some point midseason. Bradley accelerated the Diamondbacks' timetable with a fantastic spring, posting a 1.61 ERA over 22.1 innings, with a 14:6 K:BB while not allowing a homer. Control was Bradley's downfall when healthy last year, though that's obviously related - a pitcher's command is going to suffer when his elbow is barking. Bradley is slated to face Clayton Kershaw in his first start, though at least it's at home. I like him better as a long-term project than for any immediate returns. Mixed: $1; NL: $3.

Rubby De La Rosa - De La Rosa was another winner of the Diamondbacks' near-open auditions for the starting rotation jobs, but his line is a little more troubling than Archie Bradley's. While he had a 3.15 ERA over 20 innings, holding batters to a .176 average over that span, he also walked 12 batters, which is emblematic of his control problems at the big league level in the past. De La Rosa once was a promising starting pitching prospect like Bradley before he had to undergo Tommy John surgery in late 2011. Many still believe he'd be a better reliever than starter. Look for him to take his lumps in Chase Field. Auditions for rotations slots could continue throughout the season - any of the pitchers that were sent down initially could get called back up if De La Rosa struggles (and really, only Josh Collmenter and Jeremy Hellickson have any semblance of job certainty in the Diamondbacks' rotation), plus Patrick Corbin and Bronson Arroyo are due to return at some point midseason. Mixed: $0; NL: $2.

Trevor Cahill - Cahill was dealt to the Braves at the end of spring training to make room for Archie Bradley in the Diamondbacks' rotation, but the club may have given up on him too soon. Cahill's ugly 5.61 ERA last year looks a lot better in FIP terms at 3.96, he induces twice as many ground balls as he does fly balls, and he struck out 8.54 batters per nine innings last year. He'll get fifth starter treatment with the Braves, meaning that his first start won't come until April 15, but it's not too hard to envision him ultimately beating out Eric Stults once Mike Minor returns. Mixed: $0; NL: $3.

Travis Wood - Wood won the Cubs' fifth starter job over Edwin Jackson and Tsuyoshi Wada, but that was more by default than merit. His spring training numbers included a 4.87 ERA over 20.1 innings, and a 1.57 WHIP thanks to a whopping 29 hits allowed. If Wada hadn't injured his groin in spring training, there was a reasonable chance Wood could have lost the job to him. Wood often helps himself at the plate, though that does very little for us. C.J. Edwards could come quickly, or one of Wada or Jackson could supplant him if he replicates last year's performance on the mound. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Jason Marquis - The Reds have a whopping four non-roster players earning a spot on the Opening Day roster, none of them prospects that just hadn't been added to the 40-man roster like Mike Lorenzen, but four guys that were freely available on the open market but not worthy of signing a major league deal this winter. These are the sort of guys that you break glass in case of emergency for, not plan to have around all season. But the Reds were so woefully thin last year that the likes of Marquis, Kevin Gregg, Brennan Boesch and Chris Dominguez could represent upgrades of some sort. Well, not Marquis, who couldn't best a 4.05 ERA when last pitching in the big leagues in Petco Park, an environment far more hospitable than what he'll find in the Great American Ballpark. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Raisel Iglesias - Iglesias won a job in the starting rotation for the Reds to begin the season, but any sort of projection for him is little more than an educated dart throw. He doesn't have any U.S. professional experience beyond Rookie Ball, the Arizona Fall League and spring training. The Cuban righty works around 94 mph with his fastball and throws four pitches, with varying degrees of command. He'll be the fifth starter, so his first start won't come until next Sunday against Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals. Homer Bailey is only expected to miss 2-to-4 starts before coming off the DL, so Iglesias could be ticketed back to the minors in short order. Or, maybe he could be great and displace Marquis, which isn't exactly a high bar to clear. He's a volatile investment, but one I've stashed in four leagues just in case he's good. Mixed and NL: $0.

Dillon Gee - Gee was out of a starting rotation spot when spring training began, but Zack Wheeler's elbow injury has opened up a job for him, at least for now. Gee was a useful spot starter at home in previous years, but with the Mets moving the fences in at Taxpayer Field (h/t Chris Liss), Gee's pitch-to-contact ways are too dangerous for my comfort. There's a pretty good chance that he'll ultimately lose the slot, either to Noah Syndergaard down in Triple-A, or Rafael Montero, who is in the bullpen to begin the season. Mixed: $0; NL: $2.

Vance Worley - Worley initially lost out to Jeff Locke for the fifth starter's job despite outpitching Locke both last year and in spring training, due to Locke's handedness. But Worley is the better pitcher of the two, and a live play for his home starts (2.28 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 47.1 innings last year). He gets a start at home against the Brewers and Jimmy Nelson in the first week, and I think he'll outlast Locke if/when Charlie Morton returns, or when the Bucs deem Jameson Taillon ready for the big leagues. Mixed: $1; NL: $5.

Brandon Morrow - Morrow was awarded the Padres' fifth starter job ahead of Odrisamer Despaigne, with that status seemingly predetermined before spring training. I'm not necessarily against that - often spring training can be deceiving (see also, Jason Marquis), but in the case of Morrow there's very little recent track record that does "count", but instead we have invest in the idea of him. He had to overcome a blister on his pitching thumb early in spring, and ended up with a 4.76 ERA and 12:4 K:BB ratio over 17 innings. The Padres play 10 games in a row to begin the season, so there's no fifth starter-treatment worries for him over the first two weeks. Mixed: $3; NL: $12.

Carlos Martinez - Martinez won the Cardinals' fifth starter job, beating out Marco Gonzalez (who was sent down) and Jaime Garcia (who went on the DL with a shoulder injury). Martinez was erratic last year, but keep in mind he was still just 22 years old and bouncing between roles. He has the enticing combo of a 2:00 GB/FB ratio, 96.7 mph average fastball and an 8.46 K/9 strikeout rate. He's better than most of the fifth starters out there, with an upside to achieve a lot more. The Cardinals don't plan on skipping him despite having off-days on Thursday next week and Tuesday the week after. Invest now if you still can. Mixed: $10; NL: $30.

Relief Pitchers:

Daniel Hudson - Hudson once was a promising starting pitcher, but two Tommy John surgeries wiped out his 2012-14 seasons. He was hitting 95-96 mph on the radar this spring and the Diamondbacks would like to use him as a multi-inning reliever to begin the season. He could be a darkhorse to either start or close pending how his season goes or if those in front of him in those respective roles falter. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Chris Hatcher/Joel Peralta/J.P. Howell - This is the trio that is expected to fill in for the injured Kenley Jansen in April, but manager Don Mattingly said that he would use a committee rather than designate any one of them as the replacement. That usually gets corrected with the first successfully converted save chance. Interestingly enough, none of Hatcher, Peralta or Howell has had a good spring, and both Peralta and Howell have been hurt a little bit. For what it's worth, MLB.com's Ken Gurnick expects Hatcher to get the first chance. Hatcher - Mixed: $1; NL: $5. Peralta - Mixed: $0; NL: $1. Howell - Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Arquimedes Caminero - This one is for the Scoresheet and Strat player out there, looking for any sort of reliever with some upside. Caminero hit 100 mph in Saturday's spring training finale and put together a whopping 21:1 K:BB ratio this spring to earn a roster spot. He's not going to close anytime soon, but we've seen good set-up men emerge from the ether before. Clip-and-save. Mixed and NL: No, but put on your watchlist.

Catchers:

Nick Hundley - The Rockies are actually going forward with the process of benching Wilin Rosario and starting Hundley. This isn't going to end well - a lesson that we've learned repeatedly (and I believe first articulated by our colleague Gene McCaffrey) is that while Coors Field makes good hitters great, it doesn't make bad hitters good. Hundley is walking less and striking out more as his career progresses. There's a good chance that either Rosario or Mike McKenry displaces Hundley by May. Mixed: $0; NL: $2.

Corner Infielders:

Jake Lamb - Yasmany Tomas has been sent down to Triple-A Tucson after the failed third base experiment, and the organization has given up on the notion of him playing third base, saying instead he'll play in the outfield there. Was this a noble experiment that didn't work out? Or was it terrible long-term planning by a brand new front office? You decide. Lamb is the obvious beneficiary of Tomas's demotion, but he'll have to hold off Aaron Hill, who has been rebranded into a super-sub role behind Lamb, Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings. Like many rookies, Lamb struggled to make contact upon his first exposure to major league pitching last season, striking out 27.8% of the time in 133 plate appearances. In the minors he's typically been able to overcome some contact issues to still hit for average while bringing better than average power to the table. He will not run - only two stolen base attempts in the minors over the last two seasons. Mixed: $2; NL: $9.

Mike Olt - Olt temporarily will be the starter at third base while Kris Bryant marks time in Iowa, but even then it might be part of a timeshare with Arismandy Alcantara and/or Tommy La Stella. Unfortunately, he's the new Dallas McPherson or Brandon Wood, unable to shake his poor contact rate to make his other two true outcomes valuable. Mixed: No; NL: $0.

Middle Infielders:

Jace Peterson - Peterson came over to the Braves in the Justin Upton deal this offseason after really faltering in his cup of coffee with the Padres last year. But looking past those big league struggles, which happen for many first-time callups, you can see a player that offers a good batting eye along with near-elite stolen base skills. He won the Braves' second base competition this spring, hitting .324/.410/.397 with three stolen bases. The question is whether that will translate once the regular season begins, and he faces pitchers with far better command and less incentive to pitch around him. Jose Peraza looms in the minors as a long-term possibility for the club, so it's imperative that Peterson starts well. Nonetheless, if you're looking for really cheap speed, you should consider him as an option. Mixed: $3; NL: $12.

Tommy La Stella - We had Jesse Rogers on Friday's radio show, and he believes that La Stella will benefit more from Javier Baez's demotion than Arismandy Alcantara. The Cubs specifically targeted him to improve their overall on-base profile, and a 10 percent walk rate at the big league level last year indicates that he has that skill. Whether he'll be valuable might depend on where he hits in the batting order. He doesn't run nor hit for much power, so he needs to hit high in the lineup and score a lot of runs to be valuable. That said, the Cubs were dabbling with batting him second this year after Dexter Fowler, so that's in play. Mixed: $3; NL: $12.

Arismandy Alcantara - When comparing Alcantara to La Stella, Alcantara has the advantages of being able to play multiple positions and to provide more power and speed. However, he's at a great risk of losing playing time due to his poor contact rate, having struck out 31 percent of the time in 2014. The Cubs have a number of high-strikeout players and sent Javier Baez back to Triple-A because he's an extreme example of that characteristic, but you should know that the Cubs are aware of that shortcoming. When Kris Bryant gets the call, Alcantara could get squeezed. Mixed: $2; NL: $9.

Odubel Herrera - Herrera apparently will be the Phillies' Opening Day center fielder. The Rule 5 pick from the Rangers qualifies at second base in many leagues, having played 97 games there in the minors against 11 in the outfield last year. With Domonic Brown beginning the year on the 15-day DL, the Phillies will now have the least powerful outfield in the game, even worse than the Braves, between Herrera, Ben Revere and Grady Sizemore. Your hope with Herrera is that he maxes out his speed and ability to hit for contact, but the latter could fall off once major league pitchers realize he can't hurt them with his power. Mixed: $1; NL: $7.

Dan Uggla, Danny Espinosa - Uggla and Espinosa are set to split the playing resulting from Anthony Rendon's injury, with Yunel Escobar moving over from second base to third base. Can you find a pair of second basemen more disappointing over the last two years? Uggla has actually had a promising spring, hitting .261/.433/.457, walking 13 times in 59 plate appearances. Is it possible that he's finally overcome all the vision woes that torpedoed his career? There's a better chance he'll be serviceable than Espinosa, who had a brutal spring, hitting just .125/.197/.214 with 18 strikeouts in 56 at-bats. Uggla - Mixed: $1; NL: $4. Espinosa - Mixed and NL: No.

Outfielders:

David Peralta - Peralta was discovered playing in the independent minor leagues by the Diamondbacks in 2013 after initially washing out as a pitching prospect in the Cardinals system. He quietly had a nice 2014 callup, hitting .286/.320/.450 with eight homers and six stolen bases, and built off that debut with a .322/.414/.424 line this spring, earning the starting job against right-handers in left field. His competition for playing time is Ender Inciarte, who also had a good spring and also hits left-handed. You may occasionally see a lineup that has both Venezuelan outfielders in there, at the expense of either Mark Trumbo or A.J. Pollock, to address the lack of a real platoon. Mixed: $2; NL: $8.

Ender Inciarte - Inciarte forced his way onto the Opening Day roster, hitting .353/.400/.412 this spring, but he doesn't currently have a starting job, as David Peralta has the left field job ahead of him. However, the demotion of Yasmany Tomas opens the door a tiny crack, and Inciarte could force his way through if either Peralta or Mark Trumbo struggles. Inciarte is the best defender of the three, at least in terms of range if not arm, and is especially fast, stealing 19 bases in 22 attempts last year at the big league level. In a 15-team NFBC style format, he's worth stashing for a few weeks to see how the playing time results, but in smaller pools he's best watching from afar. Mixed: $0; NL: $5.

Eric Young Jr. - We can all point and laugh at how ugly the starting outfields for the Braves and Phillies are, but we should be able to profit from them too. EY Jr. is no sabermetric darling, but he'll get plenty of opportunities to run as the starting center fielder while Melvin Upton Jr. is on the DL to begin the season, and even after Upton returns there should be copious chances to play, given that the competition is Jonny Gomes and Nick Markakis, who is scrambling to make it to the opening bell after having neck fusion surgery this offseason. You know the package with him - it's just a matter of how badly you need the speed. Mixed: $5; NL: $15.

Gregor Blanco - Blanco will start in left field until Hunter Pence returns from his forearm injury. He always seems to find a way to wrangle into more playing time than one would expect for his offensive talents, but his defense, speed and ability to take a walk have extended his opportunities. He's had double-digit stolen base seasons the last four years, so he's a good bet to get your 4-5 steals in April before Pence returns. Mixed: $0; NL: $6.

Michael Taylor - Taylor's stock already went up once it was announced that Denard Span would miss the start of the season, but his performance this spring only buffered that confidence in him. He hit .323/.343/.646 in 65 at-bats - that's 11 extra-base hits in that span. The only negative is that he drew just two walks against 15 strikeouts, not what the Nats are looking for in someone who potentially will hit leadoff while Span is out. Mixed: $6; NL: $19.

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Erickson
Jeff Erickson is a co-founder of RotoWire and the only two-time winner of Baseball Writer of the Year from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He's also in the FSWA Hall of Fame. He roots for the Reds, Bengals, Red Wings, Pacers and Northwestern University (the real NU).
MLB FAAB Factor: More Than the NFL Draft Happening
MLB FAAB Factor: More Than the NFL Draft Happening
Mound Musings: Their Stock Is on the Rise
Mound Musings: Their Stock Is on the Rise
Los Angeles Dodgers-Washington Nationals, Expert MLB Picks for Thursday, April 25
Los Angeles Dodgers-Washington Nationals, Expert MLB Picks for Thursday, April 25
MLB Picks: PrizePicks Plays and Strategy for Thursday, April 25
MLB Picks: PrizePicks Plays and Strategy for Thursday, April 25