From the Press Box: Stanley Cup Playoff First-Round Picks

From the Press Box: Stanley Cup Playoff First-Round Picks

This article is part of our From the Press Box series.

The playoffs are here, so it's time for fantasy leaguers to prepare for the upcoming playoff pool season. As has been the custom in this column over the last few seasons, you will read my assessment of each series matchup and some key players to watch from both teams, along with my series predictions. This column will name all the names you need to consider.

Eastern Conference
Canadiens 110 points (pp-16.5, pk-83.7) vs. Senators 99 points (pp-16.8, pk-82.9)
Ottawa won regular season series 3-1

This all-Canadian matchup is the second between these teams in the last three seasons. Ottawa comes into it confidently because of their recent success against Montreal. These teams are also built similarly. Their signature players are both defensemen, with P.K. Subban going against Erik Karlsson, which means that one of the league's top defenders will not get past Round 1. Montreal has the edge in goal on paper, as Hart Trophy favorite, Carey Price, defends against the Cinderella story of the Eastern conference, Andrew Hammond. Offensively, neither team had a forward in the top-20 scorers, but there are a number of capable scorers on both sides. Max Pacioretty, who leads the Habs with 67 points, has been cleared to play after suffering a suspected concussion last week. The Habs have an interesting mix of weapons, from the feisty Brendan Gallagher, the stability of Tomas Plekanec and the untapped skill of Alex Galchenyuk. David Desharnais and Andrei Markov are also steady

The playoffs are here, so it's time for fantasy leaguers to prepare for the upcoming playoff pool season. As has been the custom in this column over the last few seasons, you will read my assessment of each series matchup and some key players to watch from both teams, along with my series predictions. This column will name all the names you need to consider.

Eastern Conference
Canadiens 110 points (pp-16.5, pk-83.7) vs. Senators 99 points (pp-16.8, pk-82.9)
Ottawa won regular season series 3-1

This all-Canadian matchup is the second between these teams in the last three seasons. Ottawa comes into it confidently because of their recent success against Montreal. These teams are also built similarly. Their signature players are both defensemen, with P.K. Subban going against Erik Karlsson, which means that one of the league's top defenders will not get past Round 1. Montreal has the edge in goal on paper, as Hart Trophy favorite, Carey Price, defends against the Cinderella story of the Eastern conference, Andrew Hammond. Offensively, neither team had a forward in the top-20 scorers, but there are a number of capable scorers on both sides. Max Pacioretty, who leads the Habs with 67 points, has been cleared to play after suffering a suspected concussion last week. The Habs have an interesting mix of weapons, from the feisty Brendan Gallagher, the stability of Tomas Plekanec and the untapped skill of Alex Galchenyuk. David Desharnais and Andrei Markov are also steady players who will contribute more than you might expect.

The Sens will lean on the crafty center Kyle Turris, their expected sniper Bobby Ryan, and their unexpected sniper Mark Stone. In addition, young forwards Mike Hoffman and Mika Zibanejad have become solid offensive contributors, as have veterans Clarke McArthur and Milan Michalek.

The call: I think the Sens will prevail, particularly if they steal an early game in Montreal. Their team speed has given the Habs fits in their last three meetings. Ottawa in 6.

Lightning 108 points (pp-16.8, pk-82.9) vs. Red Wings 100 points (pp-23.8, pk-80.9)
Tampa won regular season series 3-1

This all-Yzerman series (his old club vs. his current one) features a team whose core is young against a core that is aging, yet both were very productive in the regular season. The Lightning are led by one of the new faces of the NHL, as captain Steven Stamkos looks at this postseason as a coming-of-age party. He has been dominant in many regular seasons, but he knows that his legacy is dependent on post-season success. He will be supported by one of the biggest fantasy surprises of the year in Tyler Johnson. Young non-North American skaters Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat have brought offensive skills to fill in top-six roles alongside veterans Ryan Callahan and Valtteri Filppula. The defense is anchored by one of the best in the business, with a now healthy Victor Hedman, and you might be surprised to see Anton Stralman as the top point producer on this blueline. Ben Bishop proved that his first year as the No. 1 guy in goal was no fluke, as he duplicated that effort this season.

The legendary duo of Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk paced the Wings' offense just as they have done for years. The reason for optimism lies in the raft of young talent that has joined them in the top-two scoring lines in the last two years: Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyqvist and Justin Abdelkader each eclipsed the 20-goal plateau. As with the forwards, veteran Niklas Kronwall was the lynchpin and he has trade-deadline pickup, Marek Zidlicky, to help him work with Danny DeKeyser and Kyle Quincey for a nice top-four on defense. The surprise comes with the decision to go with Peter Mrazek over incumbent Jimmy Howard in goal.

The call: I think it's Tampa's time to shine. The Lightning have been so consistent all year long and may have too much speed for the Wings, who still need their old stars to play their best to lead this team. Tampa in 5.

Rangers 113 points (pp-16.8, pk-84.3) vs. Penguins 98 points (pp-19.3, pk-84.8)
NY Rangers won regular season series 3-1

The Rangers have built a deep offense to supplement their stout defense and exceptional goaltending, riding that combination to the Presidents' Trophy. Rick Nash again showed that he remains one of the best finishers in the game and benefitted from a partnership with Derick Brassard, a great distributor of the puck. Derek Stepan and Martin St. Louis turned in stellar two-way efforts all year long. Kevin Hayes and Mats Zuccarello are two smallish wingers who add to the offensive firepower, as do the speedy Carl Hagelin and bulky Chris Kreider. The defensive-minded blueline received a nice offensive boost when they brought veteran puckmover Keith Yandle onboard to join Ryan McDonagh and Kevin Klein. Henrik Lundqvist has fully recovered from his neck injury, but the Blueshirts have now got a clear understanding of how good Cam Talbot is as the backup.

The Penguins stumbled into the post-season, as Evgeni Malkin battled injuries and Sidney Crosby was left as the lone star on an offense that otherwise dried up in the stretch run. Patric Hornqvist regained his scoring touch once he got over his injury woes, while Brandon Sutter and David Perron were the only other forwards who met expectations. They need more from Chris Kunitz (17 goals), and suffered a huge loss when it was announced that Kris Letang (concussion) would be lost for the whole postseason, which means veterans Paul Martin and Christian Ehrhoff need to step up their offensive games. Marc-Andre Fleury was pretty ordinary down the stretch and is likely haunted by recent playoff failures.

The call: this just looks like too many checkmarks in favor of the team from Broadway. Unless the Pens' dynamic duo goes nuts offensively, thus could be very one-sided. Rangers in 5.

Capitals 101 points (pp-25.3, pk-81.2) vs. Islanders 101 points (pp-18.7, pk-78.0)
Teams tied season series 2-2

The Caps finally meshed a roster and style that was equally effective at both ends of the ice. The clearest evidence of the overall improvement is best identified by a 45-goal swing in Alex Ovechkin's plus/minus rating (minus-35 last year to plus-10 this year), while he was also the league's only 50-goal scorer. Top center, Nicklas Backstrom cemented his reputation as a premier passer. Significant supplementary scoring came from big wingers Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward and Eric Fehr. Evgeni Kuznetsov is moving toward a key top-six role and will soon be another dynamic part. Marcus Johansson is a nice depth piece with a good offensive upside. They have loads of offensive support from a blueline that includes veteran Mike Green, John Carlson and Matt Niskanen. In goal, Braden Holtby took a giant step toward elite goalie status this season, with equal credit going to his skill set and an improved team-wide commitment to defense.

The Islanders were the story of the first half but cooled off just a bit in coasting to their best season in years. John Tavares continued his rise toward the top of the scoring list, falling one point shy of the league lead. He probably would have won the Art Ross if wingman Kyle Okposo didn't miss 22 games to injury, but he's back in an offensive groove with five points in his last six games. Two other recent first-round picks, Ryan Strome and Brock Nelson, had nice years in support of a more diverse offense. Frans Nielsen was once again a good source of secondary scoring, while rookie Anders Lee surprised with an impressive 25-goal season. The big change for the Islanders was the infusion of veterans Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk, two players who learned how to win elsewhere. They brought a winning aura and meshed well with young, hungry blueliners Thomas Hickey and Travis Hamonic to form a dynamic quartet on defense. Veteran goalie Jaroslav Halak injected more stability by playing at a high level as the stabilizing No. 1.

The call: the Caps have had their act together all year long, having bought into head coach coach Barry Trotz's tactics, ad they have a more consistent level than the Islanders over the last two months. Caps in 7.

Western Conference
Ducks 109 points (pp-15.7, pk-81.0) vs. Jets - 99 points (pp-17.8, pk-81.8)
Anaheim won regular season series 3-0

The Ducks are again led by their dynamic duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, who are the clear offensive leaders, and Patrick Maroon has earned most of the playing time on their left wing. Ryan Kesler has lived up to his billing as the centerpiece of a second scoring line and he has worked well with Matt Beleskey and Kyle Palmieri on a productive unit. This balanced attack continues with a third line that includes sharpshooting Jakob Silfverberg and speedy Andrew Cogliano. Other than the improved depth at forward, the Ducks boast a six-pack of effective two-way defenders to bolster the Ducks' attack. Francois Beauchemin is the most effective shut down guy, but Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler, James Wisniewski and Sami Vatanen can really lug the puck and are interchangeable on the power play. Even late-season pickup Simon Depres, a rugged type, has an offensive upside. John Gibson came on strong in the second half after battling injuries and is currently listed as day-to-day with an upper body injury, but Frederik Andersen earned 35 wins in 53 starts, with his solid work an integral part of Anaheim's success. He will get the start in Game 1.

The Jets are another NHL feel-good story on the eve of the post-season, as they have created big excitement for their rabid fan base. They had 11 scorers reach double figures, although none cracked the league's top-30 producers. They have a group of large physical forwards like Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele, who pay the price to be the top scorers in this balanced lineup. Brian Little and Mathieu Perreault are smaller forwards who rely on above-average offensive skills to factor in on a consistent basis. Michael Frolik and trade deadline pickup Drew Stafford are pure snipers who round out this attack force. On defense, Dustin Byfuglien, is their difference maker, a huge player who oozes intimidation along with his considerable skill set. Tyler Myers is another mobile big man who is tough to play against, while Jacob Trouba and Tobias Enstrom round out a very impressive top-four on defense. In goal, Michael Hutchinson provided a nice boost in mid-season and settled in nicely, while Ondrej Pavelec dealt with injury woes. Pavelec finished the season at the top of his game, posting three straight shutouts. He will start Game 1.

The call: The Jets may have peaked with their push to get back in the playoffs and will battle the notion that their main goal was achieved. The Ducks have bigger dreams as the top team in the West, and much more is expected of them. They won't stumble here. Ducks in 6.

Canucks 101 points (pp-19.3, pk-85.7) vs. Flames – 97 points (pp-18.8 , pk-80.6)
Teams tied season series 2-2

The Sedin twins enter the post-season on a hot scoring streak, which is great because you obviously want your best players peaking at this time. Radim Vrbata made the most of his first year in Vancouver, totaling a career-best 63 points while playing with the magical Swedes. Nine other Canucks reached double figures in goal scoring, so that should not be a postseason issue. The key will be whether second-liners Nick Bonino, Chris Higgins and Alex Burrows can provide consistent production in support of the top line. Alexander Edler, the leader of the defense corps, also finished the season on a points bonanza with eight in his last four games. Yannick Weber emerged as a big threat on the man advantage and wound up with 11 goals. Five of those came on the dangerous Vancouver power play. While Ryan Miller is regarded as the No. 1 goalie, he missed the final six weeks of the season, returning in time to allow five goals on 28 shots in the finale. Eddie Lack was very steady in his absence and gets the nod in Game 1, if only to buy Miller some more time to get fully healthy.

The Flames will counter their bitter rivals with an offense that has been led by the fuzzy-cheeked pair of Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, whose combined set of offensive skills have captured the imagination of a legion of Flames fans. Veteran winger Jiri Hudler enjoyed a career-year playing with the young phenoms. After this trio, Lance Bouma worked his way into a top-six role with the gritty work ethic and scoring touch combination that is near and dear to team president Brian Burke's heart. David Jones and Mason Raymond are capable scorers who need to deliver for Calgary to enjoy playoff success, as they were inconsistent during the regular season. Despite missing their leader, Mark Giordano, the Flames retain two more top-scoring defensemen who anchor their attack in Dennis Wideman and T.J. Brodie. Jonas Hiller was brought in to secure the club's goaltending issues and has delivered, posting a 2.36 goals-against average in 52 appearances.

The call: Vancouver looks to have much more depth than their counterparts. Calgary has taken that first step back toward respectability simply by qualifying for the postseason and will miss Giordano on this stage. Canucks in 5.

Blues 109 points (pp-22.3, pk-83.7) vs. Wild 100 points (pp-15.8, pk-86.3)
Teams tied season series 2-2

St. Louis is to be lauded for being a loaded, deep roster. They roll four lines and three balanced defense pairs night after night. Vladimir Tarasenko distinguished himself as the Blues' most dynamic player this season. Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz and David Backes supported his 37 goals, with at least 20 apiece. Another regular on the highlight reels, T.J. Oshie chipped in 19 goals, while Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera filled the role of playmakers for all these shooters. Alex Pietrangelo overcame a very slow start and led the defense with another 40-point campaign. Kevin Shattenkirk was even more productive, with only two fewer points while missing 26 games due to abdominal surgery. He showed that he is fully recovered in compiling four points in his last four games. Jay Bouwmeester is a minutes-eater who rises to the occasion at this time of year. Bryan Elliott and Jake Allen produced almost identical numbers in goal, though Elliott appeared a bit more often. It was assumed that he would start Game 1, but Allen will get the nod.

Minnesota's fortunes were buoyed with the acquisition of Devan Dubnyk, who solidified the club's goaltending in the second half of the season (1.78 GAA in 39 appearances). The offensive talent was boosted first by the breakout campaign from Nino Niederreiter (24 goals) and later by Chris Stewart, who was acquired at the trade deadline, to add his power forward skills to a veteran core of attackers. Zach Parise led this group with 33 goals, but was ably supported by Jason Pominville, Tomas Vanek and Mikko Koivu, who averaged 50 points apiece. Jason Zucker and Charlie Coyle fitted in with important secondary scoring. Workhorse Ryan Suter leads a talented quartet on the blueline. Matt Dumba, Marco Scandella and Jared Spurgeon, who combined for 28 goals, joined him.

The call: St. Louis has been an annual playoff favorite because of the depth of their roster, but I believe the Wild has as much as the Blues and perhaps a bit more, given Dubnyk's outstanding goalkeeping. Wild in 7.

Predators 104 points (pp-16.2, pk-80.8) vs. Hawks 102 points (pp-17.6, pk-83.4)
Chicago won regular season series 3-1

The Predators put it altogether this season to join the ranks of the top teams in the league, finding themselves at the top of league standings. They forged a bit of an identity based on their improved depth and the emergence of Filip Forsberg, the club's leading scorer. At only 20 years old, he is sure to become even more productive as he matures. Behind him, James Neal is the biggest name among the other offensive keys. They also got yeoman work and strong two-way work from Mike Fisher and Mike Ribeiro, while Colin Wilson and Craig Smith added their usual steady production. Mike Santorelli, a fleet-checking center, and Cody Franson, a big offensively gifted defender, were added at the trade deadline to make a very good team that much deeper. Franson slides into a second-pairing role next to fellow big-man Seth Jones in a formidable pairing. It is only eclipsed here by my vote for the most complete defensive duo in the league. Everyone knows that Shea Weber is an annual candidate for the Norris Trophy, but Roman Josi just completed a 55-point campaign (third highest among NHL defensemen). Similar to Weber's profile among defensemen is Pekka Rinne's among goalies. He should also be in the league MVP discussion, that's how good he was this season.

Any discussion about the Blackhawks must begin with their captain and unquestioned leader, Jonathan Toews, whose hockey resume at age 26 is probably already good enough to merit Hall of Fame status, based on his NHL and international hockey successes. His individual scoring totals are also on that trajectory. His running mate, Patrick Kane, was not expected to return (broken clavicle) this season but he will be active for Game 1 after missing the last 20 games. That's a huge boost for Chicago. Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp and Brad Richards (a former Conn Smythe winner in Tampa) have all excelled on the big stage of the playoffs and they form the rest of the offensive core of forwards along with ever-improving third-year pro, Brandan Saad, who compiled a career-best 52 points this season. The Hawks biggest asset is the best six-pack of defensemen, for my money, in the entire NHL. The pairing of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook has been dominant for years. Nick Hjalmarsson, Johnny Oduya, Michal Rozsival and David Rundblad are all good puck-movers, who are also adept in defensive zone coverage responsibilities. In goal, Corey Crawford has evolved into a top-tier goalie who has been there for all of the Hawks recent successes.

The call: Despite all the good things we can say about the Predators, I just cannot go against the long-standing pedigree of the Blackhawks, a team that has won the Stanley Cup twice in the last five years, in an era where maintaining winning rosters under a restrictive salary cap makes the talk of dynasties rare. If the Hawks win it all again (I think they will) then they have earned that lofty moniker. Hawks in 6.

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Paul Bruno
Paul Bruno is co-host of the RotoWire fantasy hockey podcast, PUCKCAST with Statsman and AJ. He has been an accredited member of the Toronto sports media for more than 20 years. Paul also helps with RW's DFS podcast and is a contributing writer for RW NFL, MLB and CFL content. Follow him on twitter: @statsman22.
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