This article is part of our Rounding Third series.
Week 3 Primer
In the past when I've done these primers, one of the problems I always had was timeliness - getting this up early enough to be actionable. That's because I was waiting for the FAAB results in my various leagues, some of which don't run until midnight PT. So instead I'm going to try something different, and publish the FAAB results separately in our blog area. Timeliness will be especially important this week, because ...
Monday Day Games
This Monday features the annual Patriots' Day home game for the Red Sox against the Orioles, starting at 11:05 ET. That's a killer for those of us trying to get into the routine on a Monday morning on the West Coast, and you Hawaiian fantasy players have it even worse. The MLB schedule has featured more Monday day games as part of a wraparound series lately, so it always pays to check the schedule ahead of time. That's especially pertinent in weekly leagues where your entire lineup locks with the first game - that's often been the case in Tout Wars and LABR in the past.
Five Games
When Houston was moved to the AL, it ensured that there would be at least one interleague series at all times, due to there being an odd number of teams in each league. A related consequence has been the advent of two-game series between teams all year long, and not always in home-and-away form in the same week between geographical (sometimes) rivals,
Week 3 Primer
In the past when I've done these primers, one of the problems I always had was timeliness - getting this up early enough to be actionable. That's because I was waiting for the FAAB results in my various leagues, some of which don't run until midnight PT. So instead I'm going to try something different, and publish the FAAB results separately in our blog area. Timeliness will be especially important this week, because ...
Monday Day Games
This Monday features the annual Patriots' Day home game for the Red Sox against the Orioles, starting at 11:05 ET. That's a killer for those of us trying to get into the routine on a Monday morning on the West Coast, and you Hawaiian fantasy players have it even worse. The MLB schedule has featured more Monday day games as part of a wraparound series lately, so it always pays to check the schedule ahead of time. That's especially pertinent in weekly leagues where your entire lineup locks with the first game - that's often been the case in Tout Wars and LABR in the past.
Five Games
When Houston was moved to the AL, it ensured that there would be at least one interleague series at all times, due to there being an odd number of teams in each league. A related consequence has been the advent of two-game series between teams all year long, and not always in home-and-away form in the same week between geographical (sometimes) rivals, but two isolated games between those teams on Tuesday and Wednesday, with both teams getting Monday and Thursday off. Having just five games (or even less if the player is platooned at all) is a big disadvantage. At least in the NFBC we can make switches for the three-game weekends on Friday. Here are the five-game teams and players most likely to get hurt by the schedule this week:
Arizona (two home games vs. Tex) - The outfield situation is a happy mess for manager Chip Hale, but frustrating for us, and that's even before Yasmany Tomas starts playing more. This was foreseeable, but we thought that A.J. Pollock was safe from the platooning, but he's already been held out of the starting lineup thrice this season, including once after going 4-for-5! Jake Lamb will probably get four starts, but then sit on Sunday when they face Francisco Liriano.
Texas (at Arizona) - The Rangers lose the DH for two games, and then they face left-hander Hector Santiago on Sunday, so Mitch Moreland might get as few as two starts this week.
Seven Games
These are the teams you'll most likely choose from when looking to replace the five-game players. I won't list out the players affected here, but just list the teams:
Anaheim, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati, Colorado, Detroit, Kansas City, Milwaukee, New York Yankees, Oakland, Pittsburgh and San Diego.
Coors Field
There are seven home games for the Rockies this week, all scheduled against right-handers. So it should be a bonanza for Justin Morneau, Nick Hundley (I remain amazed that the Rockies carried through on their threat to marginalize Wilin Rosario), and of course the three lefty outfielders. Drew Stubbs can't catch a break - he's had one start so far this year, and that was against Clayton Kershaw. The Padres are in town for four (Odrisamer Despaigne, Brandon Morrow, James Shields and Tyson Ross), and Despaigne doesn't even get a second start to lessen the pain, as Ian Kennedy is due back from the DL then. The Giants then come in town for three games (Chris Heston, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum - ruining his two-start week).
Phillies Phollies
The Phillies are going to be a regular streaming target for us, and they haven't disappointed so far, just 31 runs in their first 12 games, with a paltry .276 team OBP. Here are some of the more marginal pitchers facing them this week:
Dan Haren (second start is home against the Nats), Jarred Cosart, David Phelps, Trevor Cahill (ok, maybe worse than marginal, but in any storm a port?)
Other Trends
With the caveat that two weeks is still an awfully tiny sample, here are a few things that stick out to me (all stats prior to Sunday's games).
- Almost half the league has a sub-.300 OBP (13 teams), with Minnesota and Milwaukee at the absolute bottom. The Brewers are also last in the league in runs scored, with 28 in 11 games.
- The Astros lead the league in strikeouts, whiffing 106 times, with the Nats one behind. I'd be careful about putting too much stock in the Nats numbers, however - they just got Denard Span back on Sunday, and Jayson Werth earlier in the week. Once they get Anthony Rendon in place of the windmill combo of Dan Uggla and Danny Espinosa, that K-rate will recede.
- The Royals remain the toughest team to log strikeouts against, by a significant margin - just 57 strikeouts, with the next lowest team (St. Louis) at 71. They've been the perfect anti-stream team, actually scoring more runs (64) than they have strikeouts.
- The Brewers have a .488 OPS against lefties, albeit in only 74 at-bats so far. The Indians have 152 at-bats against them, and their struggles there continue - just a .540 OPS against them.
- Meanwhile, the Royals have pounded most lefties (again, this is before Sunday's start against Scott Kazmir), hitting .310/.380/.861 against them. Not surprisingly, the Padres are hitting .343/.373/.488 against lefties. The Padres face at least three lefties this week - Jorge De La Rosa, Tyler Matzek and Brett Anderson. Could be a huge week for all of their right-handed sluggers.
- Opposing teams are hitting .290 against the Brewers and scored 60 runs in their first 11 games. It only seems as if Kyle Lohse has given up all of those runs.
Cheap Two-Step of the Week
For actual free agent and pitcher advice, you should check out our excellent AL FAAB, NL FAAB and Pitcher Value Meter columns. But each I'll try to point out a pitcher who is relatively affordable and possibly available for a two-start week, at least in mixed leagues. In only leagues, unless he's a recent callup or a Rockies/Twins starter, his availability might be sketchy.
But this week I like Hector Santiago, who gets home starts against the A's and Rangers. He beat the latter in Arlington earlier in the week. If you're really a thrill-seeker, Kyle Lobstein gets two home starts for the Tigers, albeit against the Yankees before an apparently cushy gig against the Indians.
Thank and Dismiss
One of the toughest aspects of streaming pitchers is figuring out when to toss the streamer back, or when they're worth holding for the duration of the season. How many people speculated with Matt Shoemaker or Jacob deGrom only to toss them back? But those pitchers usually are the anomalies - more often, we get the good results from them when they performed well in ideal situations (opponent, park, etc…) and then we make the mistake of believing them in the future. In many (most?) cases, they'll falter in less ideal set-ups, yet we'll suffer for it despite being able to wear our Captain Hindsight caps.
This week, I'd thank-and-dismiss the Giants' Chris Heston, who will get his next start at Planet Coors. At one point there was a chance that he would get a home start on Thursday against the Dodgers, but because the Giants have an off-day Monday and don't want to push up their other starters, he'll stick to Friday. If you need the roster spot, cash him in this week - you can always roster him again later, and probably on the cheap if he gets cuffed around by the Rockies.
Mistake of the Week
I'm in 13 roto leagues - I'm bound to make a mistake nearly every week, but some are more egregious than others. Which one of these was worse?
- Needing a drop to add Travis Snider in the 12-team RotoWire Online Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), Vlad Sedler and I dumped the still-demoted-at-the-time Danny Salazar, instead of cutting one of Alex Guerrero, Jake Peavy or Matt Cain. I think that I suggested Salazar, too - now we're going to have to pay and pay heavily to hope to get him back. That was a silly decision in retrospect, given Salazar's upside and Peavy's lack thereof, made worse by his injury. We thought that Guerrero could play his way into the third base job with the Dodgers, and someday he still might. Cain looks a lot worse off this week than he did a week ago in terms of a return date.
Or
- Leaving Taijuan Walker active in a road start against the Dodgers. I still think that you should keep Walker on your roster if you can at all to see if there's a quick adjustment he can make to replicate what he was doing this spring. But there's no way I should have left him active on the road against one of the best lineups in baseball. Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson got a win on my bench in contrast to the strafing Walker got.
Stay tuned for FAAB results late-night tonight on the blog page.
