Mound Musings: The NL Arms Race

Injuries and inefficiencies already! Teams desperate for rotation help might be tempted to look at their young guns fairly soon, and the more frugal organizations will be looking at their options when they can bring a pitcher up without triggering Super 2 status - typically in June. For fantasy owners this is a great time to strategize. Last week, I looked at American League possibilities, and now I'll switch over to the National League. Track these guys and be ready to pounce when a call-up or opportunity is imminent. Let's take a look at some of the National League possibilities …

Many will come and go, but only a few can make a big impact.

Last week I talked about some of the things that could expedite or delay a blue chip prospect's arrival, and I'd like to continue with some more thoughts along those lines. Further, I'll talk a little more about what reinforces the potential for positive impact, and conversely, what to look for in pitchers you might want to avoid - prospects or opportunists being given a shot.

There is one huge factor that you can easily determine, even without watching the prospect pitcher in question. It's pedigree. That is, does the team have a considerable investment in the pitcher being called up? If the pitcher was a first, or sometimes second, round draft pick, the team undoubtedly spent a considerable sum of money signing him. To get a return on that investment, they need to keep him under contract for several years, and reap long term benefits from his services. Wasting service time when he isn't ready or there isn't a real need is counterproductive.

Compare that to a 29-year-old minor league veteran who was drafted in the 17th round seven years ago and has had a handful of brief appearances at the major league level. He is again off to a great start at Triple-A, but it's a small sample size, he has been working against that level for a couple of seasons, and he has done it for about three different organizations. He could be lightning in a bottle, but don't bet on it.

Here are some NL arms I am anxious to see called up or inserted into the rotation:

• Noah Syndergaard (Mets) - Last week I mentioned Alex Meyer of the Twins in the American League version of this article. Syndergaard fits the same profile - a big, talented, young arm struggling with his command as he prepares for a much anticipated arrival in the major leagues. He missed most of the spring so he's shaking off the rust at Triple-A Las Vegas, but it shouldn't be too long before he joins the Mets, and when he does, he has immediate impact potential, even more than Meyer. Eventually the Mets will have all of their young guns in the rotation, and it would be a good idea to have your share.
  
• Kyle Crick (Giants) - This is a sneaky one. Crick has labored in the Giants organization for awhile now, and no one doubts his stuff. He's one of the most dominating arms in pro baseball, when (or maybe "if" would be better) he can harness that stuff and start throwing strikes. He can be virtually unhittable and capable of accumulating a load of strikeouts, but he also walks about six hitters every nine innings - simply unacceptable at the highest level. If he can get it all together, he could be a front-of-the-rotation starter, and if he only manages to partially get things under control, he can be an end game option. Watch him. If he can occasionally throw strikes, the Giants won't hesitate.
  
• Daniel Hudson (Diamondbacks) - Out of sight, out of mind. It works in baseball too, and Hudson might be a great example. He tossed 222 high quality innings in 2011, but Tommy John surgery - not once, but twice - took him out of the picture for virtually all of 2012-14. He's back, and so is his 95-plus mph fastball and other plus pitches. The Diamondbacks are taking it easy as he settles back in, but if all goes well, he could find himself added to an otherwise anemic starting rotation, and that would put him back on every fantasy league radar screen. If Addison Reed should struggle, he might even be an option to close, but starting is the goal and if he is past the arm issues, he should make that happen.
  
• Zach Lee (Dodgers) - Here's another one who has perhaps fallen off the radar in your league. Lee has owned a seat on my targeted prospect list for several years. He received a huge bonus, and expectations that go with it, when he turned pro, but the last couple of seasons have been disappointing. It's still very early, so it's a small sample size, but he has looked like the prospect the Dodgers were hoping for at Triple-A Oklahoma City this year. Just six hits, two walks, and one run allowed, with 13 strikeouts in 12 innings. If that continues he'll be in Los Angeles sooner rather than later. And, he isn't the only good news in the Dodgers system today (see below).
  
• Julio Urias (Dodgers) - Yes, the Dodgers, known for developing young arms for so long, get another pitcher on the list. Urias is a wildcard, not because he isn't almost assured of a bright future assuming he stays healthy, but rather because at age 18 the team may want to keep him reined in for at least a little while. He keeps moving up, but his current assignment at Double-A Tulsa hasn't been any more challenging than his previous stops in the lower minors. If he keeps sailing, expect him to be in Triple-A before long, and making his debut with the Dodgers at some point this season. Others are starting to consider this, but I'm going to come right out and say it - he slightly edges Lucas Giolito as the best pitching prospect in the game right now.

Some Other Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I watched a bit of Shane Greene's outing last weekend, and came away still wondering how he is being quite so successful. Don't get me wrong, he's a pretty fair pitcher, but I wouldn't get too excited over his fantastic start to the season. His low BABIP and high strand rate suggest some regression is in order and I just don't see top-of-the-rotation stuff.
  
• Ian Kennedy left his first start of the year in the third inning with a hamstring strain. He threw a simulated game last Monday and should step back into the rotation this weekend. I'm looking for another good year. Odrisamer Despaigne did a great job in his absence, but he is likely headed back to the bullpen.
  
• I wanted to check in on Kyle Gibson so I watched his start against Kansas City the other night. He's had a lot of success against the Royals, but evaluating a pitcher when facing that team may not be all that fair. Gibson pitched to contact against a team that doesn't strike out and is frustratingly patient.
  
• It's true, I am not a Cubs fan, but I am becoming an ever-bigger Jake Arrieta fan. They have an exciting young team, and Arrieta is showing me that he has what it takes to confidently step right to the front of their rotation. I watched him against the Pirates, and they rarely got a good swing. Bump him up again.
  
• I've discussed how major league scouts tend to shy away from shorter starting pitchers, but success is possible for the little guy. Johnny Cueto is listed at 5'11" (and that may be generous), yet I have been incredibly impressed with him the past couple of years. If he stays healthy it can easily continue.
  
• Can I wonder aloud how long it will be before Kevin Gausman joins the Orioles rotation? Bud Norris has been nothing short of abysmal, and while Gausman has been a bit on again, off again, in the bullpen, he could become very comfortable in the rotation very quickly. The clock is ticking.

Endgame Odyssey:

Some teams might lose sleep over their ace closer going on the disabled list. The Royals probably don't fit that profile. Greg Holland did land on the DL last week, but that just means Wade Davis will take the reins until Holland returns. The Rays released former closer Grant Balfour last week, and while his velocity had been down, you have to wonder if he might find a chance to close again with a team lacking a reliable end gamer. Joe Nathan was getting close to a return and the Tigers were hinting he will be their closer again. He recently suffered a setback so that plan may be on hold. I have all the respect in the world for him, but Joakim Soria is their best option there. Hang on to Soria if you own them both. The Rangers' Neftali Feliz looked bad in a recent outing, but the main threat to his job, Tanner Scheppers looked worse in the same game. Kyuji Fujikawa is also close to coming off the disabled list and I'd love to see what he could do in the end game when healthy. Cleveland's Cody Allen has vacillated between pretty good and awful with emphasis on the awful. His 18.00 ERA should put his job in jeopardy, but they don't have many options. Bryan Shaw has been just as bad. Do they try 39-year-old Scott Atchison, or minor league journeyman Nick Hagadone? Probably not, at least not yet. In Pittsburgh, Mark Melancon is also on the list of struggling closers. They claim he is healthy, but he has experienced a huge drop in velocity so something isn't right. Consider handcuffing with Tony Watson.