MLB Barometer: Down the Rabbit Hole

"My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go anywhere you must run twice as fast as that." -- Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

There is one reason why the same people do well in their fantasy baseball every year. They work really damn hard. Have you ever had a buddy forget to show up to your fantasy football draft, auto-draft and then win your league? You can bet that doesn't happen in fantasy baseball. You simply can't luck into a first place finish - you've got grind, grind and grind away. But you already know that.

For those of us playing for a decade or longer, we are constantly humbled by rough patches in our season and we learn lessons that help us the following years during both draft season and in-season. One of the biggest lessons I learned last year is to not bite off more than I can chew and to make sure I carve out the time during the week to spend watching games and to dig into the numbers. Looking at numbers on the surface just doesn't cut it. You've got to go that extra mile and down the rabbit hole that advanced stats will take you.

Every week, we're faced with tough decisions - Shane Greene or Danny Salazar for our last pitcher spot. Kendrys Morales or Pedro Alvarez for our corner infield spot. Either we go down the simpler path, because our flawed logic says so, because Player A has an easier matchup 'on paper' than Player B, or because don't spend the time to dig in. There are multiple factors in play, especially early on in the season. You don't know if you need Salazar's strikeouts and Morales' batting average now more than Greene's better shot at a win / 'safer' ratios or Alvarez's power - or if those are the stats your team will even produce in that particular week.

In the case of Salazar and Greene last week, I scared myself off Salazar without truly looking into it because I saw "@ Detroit" and ran the other way. I chose Greene without looking into it based on the results of his first couple starts. You may say that I can't regret the decision because hey, 'Greene's been awesome lately', but that's not the issue. The issue is that it should have been a 50/50 starting point - not an 80/20 - given their skill sets and talent, and that I should have analyzed further rather than taking the easier, and what 'appeared' to be the more logical choice. That ended up being the wrong decision as Greene served up eight earned runs while Salazar cruised to a win and 11 strikeouts - I'll remember this in Week 26 if I'm a few k's short of a league championship. In the offensive example, I ended up making the correct move sitting Alvarez, noting that he was 4-for-38 in his career against the four Cubs pitchers he was facing (he finished 1-for-11 with 1 RBI). The deeper you dig in to lefty/righty splits, wOBA and Batter vs Pitcher history (to a degree), the better off you'll be and the more confidently you can stand behind your decision, sans the regret.

As for Free Agent Acquisition Bidding (FAAB), one of the biggest lessons I taught myself is to not save all the work for Sunday. You want to enjoy the games, have lunch with your wife or with friends, and you probably have to run some errands. You don't want to be stuck ranking your bids for six hours straight. Most free agent bidding in fantasy leagues take place on Sunday and it's very easy to tell yourself that you'll assess during the week and let the chips fall where they may before you begin your setting your FAAB order.

I believe that it's absolutely crucial to spend the time mid-week to begin flagging players that you'll consider adding on Sunday. Have those firm opinions based on research in place. Then use Sunday to clean up your list and tweak your last minute changes -situations that may change because of injury, promotion, new lineup spot or recent hot streak. If you're up against the clock and have four teams to start bids from scratch an hour before the deadline, you're doing yourself a disservice and are more likely to overbid on a player you don't really want or underbid on someone you do. Or just run out of time and force inadequate decisions. The extra pressure can be easily avoided if you've set your targets mid-week and just use Sunday to adjust.

You simply can't just keep up with your competition. You need to find the time to run twice as fast, or you'll be in the bottom of that hole, looking up the standings at your competition.

Risers
Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY) - Big Teix led the majors with 5 HR and 10 RBI last week and is now tied for second in homers with Hanley Ramirez behind last year's home run champ, Nelson Cruz. Now in his 17th season, Teixeira was an afterthought in fantasy drafts this year - filling in on most teams' benches. He has hit 40 or more homers four times in his career but hadn't reached the 30 mark since 2010. The last few years have been plagued by a various injuries, most notably to his wrist, which obviously saps power at the plate. Though it's very early in the season, Teixeira credits his resurgence to major changes in his diet - including laying off his favorite junk foods, gluten and limiting dairy and sugar. It's helped quell inflammation and allows him to push harder in his workouts and keep his energy level up. He claims to have lost 15 pounds over the offseason. Teammates and coached have noticed improved bat speed and an invigorated middle-of-the-order hitter. I mentioned last week that Teixeira could be a later round version of last year's Chris Carter - a notion that looks more like reality after three weeks of action. Two months before the season, Teix spoke of his desire to reach the 30 HR / 100 RBI mark again this season. If he sticks to his diet and stays on the field, his goal may very well come to fruition and Teix could be the top value of draft season in terms of power production.

Chris Owings (SS, ARI) - Owings is not yet a full-fledged riser, but he is someone to keep an eye on as he has been dropped in hundreds of leagues by impatient owners last week. He was just 6-for-21 in Week 3, but hit a homer and stole two bases. Owings has two major weaknesses - he still strikes out far too often (32% this season) and doesn't hit lefties well (0-for-11 thus far), but did hit .309 against them in 68 at-bats last year. Owings is just 23-years-old, is a solid defender and should quickly mature at the plate. He is an under-the-radar MI filler whose ceiling this season is 12 HR / 22 SB / 75 RBI. He has spent some time hitting second in the Diamondbacks' lineup, but will mostly hit out of the six or seven hole, which will be nice for RBI opportunities. Just two seasons ago, in Triple-A, Owings stole 20 bases and scored 104 runs. While some decided to spend nearly a third or more of their FAAB on hyped rookie Addison Russell, Owings was scooped up for mere pennies in comparison - and the year-end numbers shouldn't be that far apart. As he continues to figure out lefties - and patience at the plate - Owings should hopefully provide more value than higher power / sub-.250 average middle infield alternatives like Luis Valbuena, Jedd Gyorko, Zack Cozart and Asdrubal Cabrera.

Carlos Martinez (SP, STL) - In my NFBC Primetime league last week, I sat Martinez for a single start against the Brewers due to a plethora of pitching options, but will never make that mistake again. Martinez is an every-week starter and is blossoming into the stud many expected him to be. Through three starts and one relief appearance early on, Martinez enters Week 4 with a 1.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 21 strikeouts in 20 innings pitched. He has won two of those outings as the Cardinals ended up winning in all four of his appearances. Best of all for those who own him, Martinez was drafted at a bit of a discount given the fact that Jaime Garcia started the season in the rotation over him. He relies primarily on his fastball - a pitch that has topped 98 mph this year. He also mixes in a two-seam fastball and near unhittable change ups and cutters. With veteran Adam Wainwright sadly out for the year, the Cardinals will need for young arms like Martinez and Marco Gonzales to step up. Pitching coach Derek Lillquist has kept the legacy of legendary Dave Duncan flourishing and CMart is his top pet project. Martinez will have occasional struggles with walking too many batters, but is a good bet to win 16 or more games and maintain a strikeouts-per-nine rate over 8.5. Pitching approximately half of his games Busch Stadium with ample run support certainly won't hurt matters. As for teammate Marco Gonzales, snag him where you can - he is coming off the disabled list in Triple-A and will be called up soon. Pitchers like Aaron Harang, Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse and Mike Leake can easily be dropped for a starter of Gonzales' ilk.

Jeurys Familia - Through three weeks of action, the Mets' de facto closer leads the majors with eight saves. Of course, the Mets have been red hot, winning 10 straight before losing two of three against the Yankees in the weekend's subway series, but Familia has certainly done his part. Since officially taking over the role for suspended reliever Jenrry Mejia, Familia has allowed just one run - a home run to the Phillies' Jeff Francoeur of all folks - but has allowed just two hits and three walks while striking out eight in 7.2 innings. Hitting consistently on his 96 mph sinker early on, Familia has adapted well to his new role and appears to have the mental makeup of a ninth-inning guy. Though public perception is that Familia is just keeping that ninth inning warm for Bobby Parnell, that may not necessarily be the case. Last week, Parnell was shut down due to forearm tightness, and the long road back from Tommy John surgery is usually an arduous one. There's no guarantee that his velocity and control will regain form immediately upon his return. Though the Mets are likely playing above their heads early on, they do have a phenomenal pitching staff and a just-good-enough offense to help bring many games into the ninth inning to Familia with a slight lead - leading to an above league average number of save opportunities. Though Familia has had a short history of inaccurate control, much of the closing game is a mental one. He certainly has the stuff - and Familia can very well hold the job for the remainder of the season.

Honorable Mentions

• Joey Votto (1B, CIN)
  
• Yonder Alonso (1B, SD)
  
• Jake Marisnick (OF, HOU)
  
• Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT)
  
• Anthony DeSclafani (SP, CIN)
  
• Joakim Soria (RP, DET)
  

• Zack Cozart (SS, CIN)
  
• Jimmy Paredes (UT, BAL)
  
• Alfredo Simon (SP, DET)
  
• J.A. Happ (SP, SEA)

Fallers
Marlon Byrd (OF, CIN) - Byrd is no longer the word. One of the league's oldest hitters at 37, Byrd is been showing his age through the first three weeks of the season. He has looked absolutely atrocious at the plate - .150/.161/.233, striking out in almost one-third of his at-bats and has zero (yes, zero!) walks in 62 plate appearances. Better late than never, Byrd had the best season of his long career in 2013 (75 R, 24 HR, 88 RBI, 291) and received a ridiculous two-year, 16 million dollar contract. He followed up with another solid season for the Phillies in 2014, hitting a career-high 25 home runs. The 20 home run plateau is still within reach this year, but he's going to have to drastically change his approach as Byrd has looked completely lost and overmatched at the plate. Byrd has a nice lineup spot hitting sixth for the Reds, and will have a few streaks in him where it may appear that he's worth picking back up. For now, he's worth holding onto in 15-team and NL-only leagues, and the occasional longshot DFS play at his minimum DraftKings and Fanduel salaries. His age is showing in the same vein Beltran's is, but Byrd can't hit .119 against righties all season, right? There will be some regression towards his career mean, but it won't be what we saw over the last two seasons.

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD) - Grandal isn't off to the best start, but there are positive signs. First of all, he is establishing himself as an excellent pitch framer - he leads all catchers with 23 strike three's called out of the strike zone. He even caught a Clayton Kershaw game two weeks ago even though AJ Ellis is Kershaw's designated back stop. Small signs and defensive ones, but they're positive signs that will keep him in the lineup even when he struggles with the bat. Offensively, Grandal has driven in just two batters with only one home run so far, but has scored eight runs. The offense will pick up. He's a switch hitter who Mattingly trusts to hit fifth in the lineup, behind Adrian Gonzalez and Howie Kendrick. Grandal even hit out of the two-hole in a game two weeks ago. Again, it's very early in the year, but he is showing better patience at the plate than last year as a member of the Padres. His walk-rate is up and strikeout-rate is down. Admittedly, I'm nearly all-in on Grandal as I own him as my second catcher in six of seven NFBC leagues - that may lead you to believe that I'm trying to convince myself that he will be okay. On the contrary, I would have no problem cutting him for a Kevin Plawecki or J.T. Realmuto if I didn't watch Grandal hit the ball hard every night and if I didn't see the potential. The time will come for us patient owners.

Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS) - Wow, how frustrating is it to own this guy? Perhaps it's just that our expectations are too high. But when you spend a second round pick on a guy year after year, you expect a bit more stability from start to start. David Price's kryptonite seems to be the Yankees' offense, but with Stras, every outing is that proverbial box of chocolates. Strasburg has had just one ace-level outing through his first four starts -early last week against the offensively-challenged Phillies - and it was the only game where he was able to last seven innings. In his outing over the weekend where the Nats were shutout by the Marlins, Strasburg gave up four earned runs on eight hits and had a snippy exchange with pitching coach Steve McCatty after allowing two of those earned runs in the fourth inning. He's now 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Unless there's some injury we all don't know about, guess which direction those ratios are going? Stras had a similarly rough April last year (3.86 ERA, .274 OBA), but ended up with solid numbers at the end of September. Not to mention, Strasburg has elite level strikeout-ability and is on a short list of starters you can rationally expect 250 k's from. Perhaps the return of Anthony Rendon will help spark the Nationals. Something is going to turn for the better in our nation's capital and it's going to happen very soon. Strasburg and the Nationals are just too good not to.

Ian Kennedy (SP, SD) - Former 20-game winner, career-high 9.3 strikeouts-per-nine last year and calls PETCO Park home - what's not to like, right? Despite the solid history, Kennedy was the least sexy fantasy option in a rotation that included Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and new teammate James Shields - all drafted within the first 36 starting pitchers on average this March. Though Padre fans are excited for the 'House that Preller Built' and are off to a fine start, Kennedy has yet to jump on board. He was pulled in the third inning of his first start of the year - against the Giants - because of a strained left hamstring. After a quick trip to the DL, Kennedy returned this past Saturday - perhaps too soon - as he was bombed by their NL West rival Dodgers. He served up eight earned runs, six of which came on three long balls. Kennedy did not put up PETCO-worthy ratios last year (3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), but interestingly his ERA was a half-point higher at home (3.93 to 3.32 road) despite nearly identical numbers across the board (hits, strikeouts, walks, win/loss record) in the exact same amount of innings (100). Kennedy owners are hoping the hamstring issue doesn't linger nor affect his delivery as Kennedy expects to get back on track this week against the Rockies at home - he pitched well against them last year (2-1 record, 24:6 K/BB in 20 IP). He will never be the most exciting pitcher in the Padres' rotation, but when he's healthy, you have a fairly good idea of what you're going to get - and it's good enough for your fantasy team.

Dishonorable Mentions

• Albert Pujols (1B, LAA)
  
• Pablo Sandoval (3B, BOS)
  
• Jedd Gyorko (2B, SD)
  
• Wily Peralta (SP, MLW)
  
• Matt Shoemaker (SP, LAA)
• 
  Not Buying It
  
  • Adam LaRoche (1B, CHW)
    
  • Jimmy Rollins (SS, LAD)
    
  • Cody Allen (RP, CLE)